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Base Set Booster Box (Sealed) — Base Set — SealedIllustration

Base Set Booster Box (Sealed)

Simulated

Base Set Booster Box (Sealed) · Base Set · Sealed

medium confidencebearish1830d 26.4%
Estimated Fair Value
$2,528,255
Lowest listing $1,848,11526.9% below
Search live listings:eBay activeeBay soldTCGplayer active
Bear Case
$2,150,321
Base Case
$2,528,255
Bull Case
$2,880,850

Price History

Dec 8Range $37.5K – $49.5KJun 5

Opportunity Score

57
  • 27% below fair value+31 pts
  • Reputable seller+8 pts
  • Sales accelerating+7 pts
  • High listing quality (sealed)+6 pts
  • High valuation confidence+4 pts
  • Strong demand (4 sales/mo)+1 pts

Investment Thesis

bearish18

Base Set Booster Box (Sealed) is currently trading at a meaningful discount to fair value, with softening price momentum over the last 30 days (-26.4%). Estimated fair value is $2528255 against a lowest active listing of $1848115. Valuation confidence is medium based on 9-plus modeled comparable sales.

Bearish: softening prices (-26.4% over 30d) amid thin liquidity and stable graded supply.

Risk Indicators

  • Negative price momentum over the last 30 days
Active Listings
9
Sales / Month
3.5
Velocity Score
18/100
Illiquid
Sales Velocity 30d
+17.3%
Confidence
63/100

Grading ROI & Population Trend

Is it worth paying to grade this card? A transparent profit model from the real ungraded cost and the audited graded value, plus a read on graded-supply momentum. The cost and odds levers are modeled assumptions you can adjust — not market-price pins.

Grading ROI (model)
+4.4%
Marginal grading ROI
unknown population

No population data reported for this asset.

Raw cost
$1,848,115
All-in cost
$1,848,144+ $25.00 fee · $4.00 ship
Graded value (per gem)
$7,392,461
Expected proceeds
$1,929,43230% gem → $2,217,738 · less 13% fee
Net profit / card
$81,288
Breakeven graded value
$7,081,012value needed to break even

Adjust modeled assumptions

These are modeled estimates, not market-price pins.

  • Modeled gem-grade odds: 30% chance of PSA 10 (a modeled probability, not a market price). Non-gem outcomes are valued conservatively at $0.
  • Modeled grading-service fee: $25.00 per card, plus $4.00 shipping/insurance (modeled service costs, not market prices).
  • Modeled marketplace sell fee: 13.0% of graded proceeds (a modeled cost, not a market price).
  • Raw cost and graded value trace to the existing audited references/pins — this panel authors no new market-price value.

Liquidity & Comp Explorer

How easily does this asset trade? Days-to-sell, sell-through rate, the spread between the lowest ask and the recent sold center, and inventory depth — all modeled over this asset's recorded sales and active listings. Explore the sale distribution with a date-range filter and an outlier-trim toggle.

Liquidity & Comp Explorer

Simulated
Days to sell
1.1dmodeled median sale gap
Sell-through
87.0%over 90d window
Bid-ask spread
+14.7%lowest ask vs sold avg
Inventory depth
3active listings
Recent sold avg
$40,428mean over 90d
Lowest ask
$46,369cheapest active listing

Comp Explorer

Min
$35,474
Median
$41,287
Mean
$41,115
Max
$45,769

Showing 38 of 38 sales

These liquidity signals are modeled deterministically over this asset's existing recorded sales and active listings — they author no new market-price value. Days-to-sell, sell-through and the bid-ask spread are analytical reads over those comps, not a live order book.

How Fair Value Is Built

A transparent, weighted blend of market signals — no black boxes.

SignalDetailReferenceWeight
recent salesVolume-weighted average of recent sold comps2661599.3850%
listing inventoryAverage of active listing asking prices2188641.6125%
price trendRecent historical price trend projection2263914.2925%
demand momentumAdjustment for sales velocity momentum (rising demand raises value)3.4520%

Active Listings

PriceMarketplaceConditionSellerListedEndsLink
$46,369PWCCSealed9057d agoJun 10View
$48,466eBaySealed6574d agoJan 1View
$49,018eBaySealed7963d agoJan 1View

Recent Sales

PriceMarketplaceConditionSold
$42,522Facebook MarketplaceSealed54d ago
$45,355MercariSealed54d ago
$38,569PWCCSealed58d ago
$39,725PWCCSealed59d ago
$42,033MercariSealed59d ago
$37,282Facebook MarketplaceSealed60d ago
$37,536Facebook MarketplaceSealed61d ago
$41,513MercariSealed63d ago
$35,816MercariSealed66d ago
$41,200MercariSealed67d ago
$40,570MercariSealed67d ago
$38,334MercariSealed70d ago

Signal Track Record

Did this asset's own Opportunity Scores precede outperformance? Each row is a past as-of date, scored point-in-time, with the realized benchmark-relative return that followed.

Data Provenance

Which signals on this page are real market data versus modeled by the deterministic engine. The terminal marks every source honestly.

Reference price
Simulated
Fair value basis
Simulated
Lowest ask (deal)
Simulated
Active listings
Simulated
Card image
Simulated
Recent sales
Simulated
Population data
Simulated
Liquidity metrics
Simulated
Liquidity analytics
Simulated
Price history
Simulated

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