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Evolving Skies Booster Box — Evolving Skies — SealedIllustration

Evolving Skies Booster Box

Simulated

Evolving Skies Booster Box · Evolving Skies · Sealed

high confidencebearish2130d ▼18.9%
Estimated Fair Value
$11,253
Lowest listing $11,0202.1% below
Search live listings:eBay activeeBay soldTCGplayer active
Bear Case
$9,705
Base Case
$11,253
Bull Case
$12,726

Price History

Dec 8Range $349 – $568Jun 5

Opportunity Score

35
  • Sales accelerating+6 pts
  • Low active inventory+6 pts
  • High valuation confidence+6 pts
  • High listing quality (sealed)+6 pts
  • Reputable seller+6 pts
  • 2% below fair value+2 pts
  • Strong demand (8 sales/mo)+2 pts

Investment Thesis

bearish21

Evolving Skies Booster Box is currently fairly valued, with softening price momentum over the last 30 days (-18.9%). Estimated fair value is $11253 against a lowest active listing of $11020. Valuation confidence is high based on 4-plus modeled comparable sales.

Bearish: softening prices (-18.9% over 30d) amid thin liquidity and stable graded supply.

Risk Indicators

  • Negative price momentum over the last 30 days
Active Listings
4
Sales / Month
8.0
Velocity Score
40/100
Moderate
Sales Velocity 30d
+15.8%
Confidence
86/100

Grading ROI & Population Trend

Is it worth paying to grade this card? A transparent profit model from the real ungraded cost and the audited graded value, plus a read on graded-supply momentum. The cost and odds levers are modeled assumptions you can adjust — not market-price pins.

Grading ROI (model)
+4.1%
Marginal grading ROI
unknown population

No population data reported for this asset.

Raw cost
$11,020
All-in cost
$11,049+ $25.00 fee · $4.00 ship
Graded value (per gem)
$44,081
Expected proceeds
$11,50530% gem → $13,224 · less 13% fee
Net profit / card
$456
Breakeven graded value
$42,334value needed to break even

Adjust modeled assumptions

These are modeled estimates, not market-price pins.

  • Modeled gem-grade odds: 30% chance of PSA 10 (a modeled probability, not a market price). Non-gem outcomes are valued conservatively at $0.
  • Modeled grading-service fee: $25.00 per card, plus $4.00 shipping/insurance (modeled service costs, not market prices).
  • Modeled marketplace sell fee: 13.0% of graded proceeds (a modeled cost, not a market price).
  • Raw cost and graded value trace to the existing audited references/pins — this panel authors no new market-price value.

Liquidity & Comp Explorer

How easily does this asset trade? Days-to-sell, sell-through rate, the spread between the lowest ask and the recent sold center, and inventory depth — all modeled over this asset's recorded sales and active listings. Explore the sale distribution with a date-range filter and an outlier-trim toggle.

Liquidity & Comp Explorer

Simulated
Days to sell
0.8dmodeled median sale gap
Sell-through
48.0%over 90d window
Bid-ask spread
-4.8%lowest ask vs sold avg
Inventory depth
22active listings
Recent sold avg
$504mean over 90d
Lowest ask
$479cheapest active listing

Comp Explorer

Min
$337
Median
$460
Mean
$463
Max
$588

Showing 33 of 33 sales

These liquidity signals are modeled deterministically over this asset's existing recorded sales and active listings — they author no new market-price value. Days-to-sell, sell-through and the bid-ask spread are analytical reads over those comps, not a live order book.

How Fair Value Is Built

A transparent, weighted blend of market signals — no black boxes.

SignalDetailReferenceWeight
recent salesVolume-weighted average of recent sold comps11242.7450%
listing inventoryAverage of active listing asking prices11340.7425%
price trendRecent historical price trend projection9804.9725%
demand momentumAdjustment for sales velocity momentum (rising demand raises value)3.1620%

Active Listings

PriceMarketplaceConditionSellerListedEndsLink
$479eBaySealed7368d agoJun 10View
$488Facebook MarketplaceSealed7365d agoJan 1View
$491eBaySealed8469d agoJan 1View
$495Facebook MarketplaceSealed8757d agoJan 1View
$508eBaySealed7175d agoJan 1View
$517MercariSealed8856d agoJan 1View
$539PWCCSealed9371d agoJun 6View
$540TCGPlayerSealed8659d agoJan 1View
$548TCGPlayerSealed8161d agoJan 1View
$561MercariSealed9964d agoJun 10View
$566PWCCSealed7570d agoJan 1View
$577MercariSealed10064d agoJan 1View

Recent Sales

PriceMarketplaceConditionSold
$553TCGPlayerSealed59d ago
$553PWCCSealed59d ago
$559eBaySealed65d ago
$528Facebook MarketplaceSealed66d ago
$510PWCCSealed67d ago
$588MercariSealed67d ago
$525eBaySealed67d ago
$556eBaySealed67d ago
$529eBaySealed68d ago
$578Facebook MarketplaceSealed74d ago
$462Facebook MarketplaceSealed75d ago
$492PWCCSealed76d ago

Signal Track Record

Did this asset's own Opportunity Scores precede outperformance? Each row is a past as-of date, scored point-in-time, with the realized benchmark-relative return that followed.

Data Provenance

Which signals on this page are real market data versus modeled by the deterministic engine. The terminal marks every source honestly.

Reference price
Simulated
Fair value basis
Simulated
Lowest ask (deal)
Simulated
Active listings
Simulated
Card image
Simulated
Recent sales
Simulated
Population data
Simulated
Liquidity metrics
Simulated
Liquidity analytics
Simulated
Price history
Simulated

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