Mewtwo (Base)

PSA 9Live

Mewtwo (Base) · Base Set · Holo Rare · 10/102

Character: Mewtwo

high confidencebullish6330d 1.9%

Estimated Fair Value

$145

PSA 9 fair value pinned to the graded sold-comp center for this exact variant at $175, as-of 2026-05-31 [Base Set UNLIMITED Mewtwo 10/102 PSA 9 — sold center ~$175 (CYCLE-11 IMPROVE re-audit: PSA APR Unlimited spec $172.50 Feb2026 / $195.50 Dec2025 / $236.26 Nov2025; PriceCharting $195.50 Dec2025; Mavin blended $153). 1st-Ed/Shadowless PSA9 ($3,250+) and PSA10 contamination excluded. Raw NM ~$50-79.] — a real recent SALE center, not a guide/ask price. Live ungraded reference $77.61 (implied grade premium ×2.2). Comparable sales below remain modeled structure around that real graded level. Real market data ingested from pokemontcg.io — point-in-time snapshot as-of 2026-06-04 (captured 2026-06-04), not a live quote.

Graded-equivalent ask $74.23 USD48.8% below

Lowest ask: real ungraded market ask $32.99 USD mapped to this graded asset's level (×2.2 → $74.23 USD). Because the same premium scales both the fair value and the ask, this is the real UNGRADED market discount — not a graded-sale discount. Comparable sales below remain modeled structure. The lowest ask is about 49% below the anchored fair value. Real market data ingested from pokemontcg.io — point-in-time snapshot as-of 2026-06-04 (captured 2026-06-04), not a live quote.

2nd source (tcgcsv): $77.61 · sales-derived, ungraded · tcgcsv.com · as of Jun 4

View ungraded listing — $32.99 USD on TCGPlayer

Source: pokemontcg.io · as of Jun 4 · point-in-time snapshot, not a live quote · 55d old

Search live listings:eBay active eBay sold TCGplayer active

Bear Case

$123

Base Case

$145

Bull Case

$166

Price History

Dec 8Range $135 – $249Jun 5

Opportunity Score

49% below fair value+35 pts
Low active inventory+9 pts
High listing quality (graded)+6 pts
Population growth slowing+6 pts
High valuation confidence+6 pts
Strong demand (14 sales/mo)+4 pts
Sales accelerating+2 pts

Investment Thesis

bullish63

Mewtwo (Base) (PSA 9) is currently trading at a meaningful discount to fair value, with stable price momentum over the last 30 days (+1.9%). Estimated fair value is $145 against a lowest active listing of $74. Fair value is pinned to the real graded sold-comp center for this exact variant (a recent-sales center, not a guide or ask price), using a live ungraded reference from pokemontcg.io. PSA 9 fair value pinned to the graded sold-comp center for this exact variant at $175, as-of 2026-05-31 [Base Set UNLIMITED Mewtwo 10/102 PSA 9 — sold center ~$175 (CYCLE-11 IMPROVE re-audit: PSA APR Unlimited spec $172.50 Feb2026 / $195.50 Dec2025 / $236.26 Nov2025; PriceCharting $195.50 Dec2025; Mavin blended $153). 1st-Ed/Shadowless PSA9 ($3,250+) and PSA10 contamination excluded. Raw NM ~$50-79.] — a real recent SALE center, not a guide/ask price. Live ungraded reference $77.61 (implied grade premium ×2.2). Comparable sales below remain modeled structure around that real graded level. Real market data ingested from pokemontcg.io — point-in-time snapshot as-of 2026-06-04 (captured 2026-06-04), not a live quote. Valuation confidence is high. The comparable sales below remain modeled around that anchor — they are not real recorded sales. The lowest ask traces to a real ungraded market ask, mapped to this graded level at $74 (TCGPlayer); because the premium scales both sides, the 49% discount is the real ungraded market discount, not a graded-sale discount. The listing rows beneath remain modeled structure.

Bullish: flat 30-day price action with healthy trading velocity and stable graded supply.

Risk Indicators

Thin liquidity — few active listings, wider spreads likely

Active Listings

Sales / Month

14.5

Velocity Score

73/100

Fast-moving

Sales Velocity 30d

+3.7%

Total Graded

7,848

Gem Mint

3,349

Population Growth

+1.5%

Slowing

Grading ROI & Population Trend

Is it worth paying to grade this card? A transparent profit model from the real ungraded cost and the audited graded value, plus a read on graded-supply momentum. The cost and odds levers are modeled assumptions you can adjust — not market-price pins.

Grading ROI (model)

-39.0%

Grading not economical

steady population

Population growing 2.8%/mo — steady supply across 4709 graded.

4,709 graded · 42% gem · +2.8%/mo

Raw cost: $32.99
All-in cost: $61.99+ $25.00 fee · $4.00 ship
Graded value (per gem): $145
Expected proceeds: $37.8430% gem → $43.49 · less 13% fee
Net profit / card: -$24.15
Breakeven graded value: $238value needed to break even

Adjust modeled assumptions

Gem-grade rate30%

Grading fee / card$25.00

These are modeled estimates, not market-price pins.

Modeled gem-grade odds: 30% chance of PSA 9 (a modeled probability, not a market price). Non-gem outcomes are valued conservatively at $0.
Modeled grading-service fee: $25.00 per card, plus $4.00 shipping/insurance (modeled service costs, not market prices).
Modeled marketplace sell fee: 13.0% of graded proceeds (a modeled cost, not a market price).
Raw cost and graded value trace to the existing audited references/pins — this panel authors no new market-price value.

Liquidity & Comp Explorer

How easily does this asset trade? Days-to-sell, sell-through rate, the spread between the lowest ask and the recent sold center, and inventory depth — all modeled over this asset's recorded sales and active listings. Explore the sale distribution with a date-range filter and an outlier-trim toggle.

Liquidity & Comp Explorer

Simulated

Days to sell: 2.6dmodeled median sale gap
Sell-through: 93.0%over 90d window
Bid-ask spread: -57.8%lowest ask vs sold avg
Inventory depth: 1active listings
Recent sold avg: $176mean over 90d
Lowest ask: $74.23cheapest active listing

Comp Explorer

Trim outliers (IQR)

Sold from

Sold to

Min: $139
Median: $172
Mean: $175
Max: $213

Showing 25 of 25 sales

These liquidity signals are modeled deterministically over this asset's existing recorded sales and active listings — they author no new market-price value. Days-to-sell, sell-through and the bid-ask spread are analytical reads over those comps, not a live order book.

How Fair Value Is Built

A transparent, weighted blend of market signals — no black boxes.

Signal	Detail	Reference	Weight
recent sales	Volume-weighted average of recent sold comps	181.94	50%
listing inventory	Average of active listing asking prices	74.23	25%
price trend	Recent historical price trend projection	141.81	25%
population pressure	Adjustment for grading population growth (more supply lowers value)	-0.73	50%
demand momentum	Adjustment for sales velocity momentum (rising demand raises value)	0.73	20%

Active Listings

Price	Marketplace	Condition	Seller	Listed	Ends	Link
$74.23	TCGPlayer	Graded	0	56d ago	Jan 1	View

Recent Sales

Price	Marketplace	Condition	Sold
$197	eBay	Graded	54d ago
$184	eBay	Graded	55d ago
$207	TCGPlayer	Graded	56d ago
$180	Facebook Marketplace	Graded	63d ago
$172	PWCC	Graded	65d ago
$155	PWCC	Graded	71d ago
$172	PWCC	Graded	75d ago
$165	Facebook Marketplace	Graded	77d ago
$179	PWCC	Graded	77d ago
$168	Mercari	Graded	80d ago
$162	Facebook Marketplace	Graded	84d ago
$176	Facebook Marketplace	Graded	88d ago

Signal Track Record

Did this asset's own Opportunity Scores precede outperformance? Each row is a past as-of date, scored point-in-time, with the realized benchmark-relative return that followed.

Data Provenance

Which signals on this page are real market data versus modeled by the deterministic engine. The terminal marks every source honestly.

This market snapshot is stale — captured Jun 4 (55d old).

Live ingestion (eBay listings & graded sold-comps) is not configured in this environment, so prices are a real but point-in-time capture, not a live quote.

To enable primary-source graded comps, set GRADED_API_KEY and run make ingest-graded PROVIDER=pokemonapi (free tier).

Reference price: Live
Fair value basis: Live-anchored
Lowest ask (deal): Live
Active listings: Live
Card image: Live
Recent sales: Simulated
Population data: Simulated
Liquidity metrics: Simulated
Liquidity analytics: Simulated
Price history: Simulated

Same character or set.

Asset	Fair Value	Lowest	Discount	30d	Avail	Score
Base ZardBase SetPSA 10Live-anchoredReal askas of Jun 4 · 56d oldsold-comp center2nd source (tcgcsv): $572 · sales-derived, ungradedView $499 · TCGPlayer 12% below fair value+14 pts Low active inventory+9 pts High listing quality (graded)+6 pts eBay active eBay sold TCGplayer active	$4,467	$3,927	12.1%	6.6%	1	44
Base Set Booster Box (Sealed)Base SetSimulated 23% below fair value+27 pts Reputable seller+8 pts High listing quality (sealed)+6 pts eBay active eBay sold TCGplayer active	$2,427,767	$1,868,746	23.0%	26.4%	9	47
Mewtwo-EXXY EvolutionsSimulated Low active inventory+8 pts Reputable seller+7 pts High listing quality (near mint)+6 pts eBay active eBay sold TCGplayer active	$2,846	$3,249	-14.2%	14.2%	2	35
MewtwoXY EvolutionsSimulated 12% below fair value+14 pts Price up 37% over 30 days+8 pts High valuation confidence+7 pts eBay active eBay sold TCGplayer active	$2,371	$2,093	11.7%	36.8%	11	45
Mewtwo-EXXY EvolutionsBGS 9.5Simulated Price up 19% over 30 days+8 pts High listing quality (graded)+6 pts High valuation confidence+5 pts eBay active eBay sold TCGplayer active	$3,154	$3,032	3.9%	19.1%	15	38
BlastoiseBase SetPSA 10Live-anchoredReal askas of Jun 4 · 56d oldsold-comp center2nd source (tcgcsv): $229 · sales-derived, ungradedView $149 · TCGPlayer 26% below fair value+30 pts Low active inventory+9 pts Population growth slowing+7 pts eBay active eBay sold TCGplayer active	$2,362	$1,755	25.7%	2.0%	1	60