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Base Zard — Base Set — Holo Rare

Base Zard

PSA 10Live

Charizard · Base Set · Holo Rare · 4/102

Character: Charizard

high confidencebullish7230d 8.6%
Estimated Fair Value
$4,436
PSA 10 fair value pinned to the graded sold-comp center for this exact variant at $4500, as-of 2026-05-31 [Base Set UNLIMITED Charizard 4/102 PSA 10 — SOLD-comp center ~$4,500 (CYCLE-11 IMPROVE re-audit: completed-sales aggregators Grand Screen $3,000-6,000, pokemonpricing.com $4,000-7,000, CardGrading.app $3,000-5,000, all May 2026). DEMOTED: PokeScope/PKMhobby/PriceTracker guide $8-20k (guide/ask, runs 2-3x hot). Distinct from Shadowless (~$15-30k) and 1st-Edition ($200k-550k). Raw NM ~$400-572.] — a real recent SALE center, not a guide/ask price. Live ungraded reference $572.03 (implied grade premium ×7.9). Comparable sales below remain modeled structure around that real graded level. Real market data ingested from pokemontcg.io — point-in-time snapshot as-of 2026-06-04 (captured 2026-06-04), not a live quote.
Graded-equivalent ask $3,927 USD11.5% below

Lowest ask: real ungraded market ask $499.00 USD mapped to this graded asset's level (×7.9 → $3927.13 USD). Because the same premium scales both the fair value and the ask, this is the real UNGRADED market discount — not a graded-sale discount. Comparable sales below remain modeled structure. The lowest ask is about 11% below the anchored fair value. Real market data ingested from pokemontcg.io — point-in-time snapshot as-of 2026-06-04 (captured 2026-06-04), not a live quote.

2nd source (tcgcsv): $572 · sales-derived, ungraded · tcgcsv.com · as of Jun 4

View ungraded listing — $499 USD on TCGPlayer

Source: pokemontcg.io · as of Jun 4 · point-in-time snapshot, not a live quote · 55d old

Bear Case
$3,818
Base Case
$4,436
Bull Case
$5,062

Price History

Dec 8Range $2.8K$4.9KJun 5

Opportunity Score

51
  • 11% below fair value+13 pts
  • Low active inventory+9 pts
  • Sales accelerating+8 pts
  • High listing quality (graded)+6 pts
  • High valuation confidence+6 pts
  • Price up 9% over 30 days+3 pts
  • Population growth slowing+3 pts
  • Strong demand (9 sales/mo)+3 pts

Investment Thesis

bullish72

Base Zard — Charizard (PSA 10) is currently modestly undervalued, with rising price momentum over the last 30 days (+8.6%). Estimated fair value is $4436 against a lowest active listing of $3927. Fair value is pinned to the real graded sold-comp center for this exact variant (a recent-sales center, not a guide or ask price), using a live ungraded reference from pokemontcg.io. PSA 10 fair value pinned to the graded sold-comp center for this exact variant at $4500, as-of 2026-05-31 [Base Set UNLIMITED Charizard 4/102 PSA 10 — SOLD-comp center ~$4,500 (CYCLE-11 IMPROVE re-audit: completed-sales aggregators Grand Screen $3,000-6,000, pokemonpricing.com $4,000-7,000, CardGrading.app $3,000-5,000, all May 2026). DEMOTED: PokeScope/PKMhobby/PriceTracker guide $8-20k (guide/ask, runs 2-3x hot). Distinct from Shadowless (~$15-30k) and 1st-Edition ($200k-550k). Raw NM ~$400-572.] — a real recent SALE center, not a guide/ask price. Live ungraded reference $572.03 (implied grade premium ×7.9). Comparable sales below remain modeled structure around that real graded level. Real market data ingested from pokemontcg.io — point-in-time snapshot as-of 2026-06-04 (captured 2026-06-04), not a live quote. Valuation confidence is high. The comparable sales below remain modeled around that anchor — they are not real recorded sales. The lowest ask traces to a real ungraded market ask, mapped to this graded level at $3927 (TCGPlayer); because the premium scales both sides, the 11% discount is the real ungraded market discount, not a graded-sale discount. The listing rows beneath remain modeled structure.

Bullish: rising prices (+8.6% over 30d) with thin liquidity and stable graded supply.

Risk Indicators

  • Thin liquidity — few active listings, wider spreads likely
Active Listings
1
Sales / Month
9.0
Velocity Score
45/100
Moderate
Sales Velocity 30d
+20.2%
Total Graded
2,649
Gem Mint
554
Population Growth
+3.2%
Slowing

Grading ROI & Population Trend

Is it worth paying to grade this card? A transparent profit model from the real ungraded cost and the audited graded value, plus a read on graded-supply momentum. The cost and odds levers are modeled assumptions you can adjust — not market-price pins.

Grading ROI (model)
+119.3%
Strong grading ROI
steady population

Population growing 4.6%/mo — steady supply across 4417 graded.

4,417 graded · 47% gem · +4.6%/mo

Raw cost
$499
All-in cost
$528+ $25.00 fee · $4.00 ship
Graded value (per gem)
$4,436
Expected proceeds
$1,15830% gem → $1,331 · less 13% fee
Net profit / card
$630
Breakeven graded value
$2,023value needed to break even

Adjust modeled assumptions

These are modeled estimates, not market-price pins.

  • Modeled gem-grade odds: 30% chance of PSA 10 (a modeled probability, not a market price). Non-gem outcomes are valued conservatively at $0.
  • Modeled grading-service fee: $25.00 per card, plus $4.00 shipping/insurance (modeled service costs, not market prices).
  • Modeled marketplace sell fee: 13.0% of graded proceeds (a modeled cost, not a market price).
  • Raw cost and graded value trace to the existing audited references/pins — this panel authors no new market-price value.

Liquidity & Comp Explorer

How easily does this asset trade? Days-to-sell, sell-through rate, the spread between the lowest ask and the recent sold center, and inventory depth — all modeled over this asset's recorded sales and active listings. Explore the sale distribution with a date-range filter and an outlier-trim toggle.

Liquidity & Comp Explorer

Simulated
Days to sell
3.0dmodeled median sale gap
Sell-through
88.0%over 90d window
Bid-ask spread
-23.6%lowest ask vs sold avg
Inventory depth
1active listings
Recent sold avg
$5,137mean over 90d
Lowest ask
$3,927cheapest active listing

Comp Explorer

Min
$3,683
Median
$4,236
Mean
$4,500
Max
$5,639

Showing 17 of 17 sales

These liquidity signals are modeled deterministically over this asset's existing recorded sales and active listings — they author no new market-price value. Days-to-sell, sell-through and the bid-ask spread are analytical reads over those comps, not a live order book.

How Fair Value Is Built

A transparent, weighted blend of market signals — no black boxes.

SignalDetailReferenceWeight
recent salesVolume-weighted average of recent sold comps4526.9550%
listing inventoryAverage of active listing asking prices3927.1325%
price trendRecent historical price trend projection4355.3825%
population pressureAdjustment for grading population growth (more supply lowers value)-1.6250%
demand momentumAdjustment for sales velocity momentum (rising demand raises value)4.0420%

Active Listings

PriceMarketplaceConditionSellerListedEndsLink
$3,927TCGPlayerGraded056d agoJan 1View

Recent Sales

PriceMarketplaceConditionSold
$5,639TCGPlayerGraded60d ago
$5,134TCGPlayerGraded65d ago
$4,842MercariGraded68d ago
$5,076PWCCGraded69d ago
$5,381MercariGraded73d ago
$4,861TCGPlayerGraded76d ago
$5,029TCGPlayerGraded79d ago
$4,087MercariGraded92d ago
$3,683TCGPlayerGraded94d ago
$3,743PWCCGraded95d ago
$4,236Facebook MarketplaceGraded97d ago
$4,309MercariGraded98d ago

Signal Track Record

Did this asset's own Opportunity Scores precede outperformance? Each row is a past as-of date, scored point-in-time, with the realized benchmark-relative return that followed.

Data Provenance

Which signals on this page are real market data versus modeled by the deterministic engine. The terminal marks every source honestly.

This market snapshot is stale — captured Jun 4 (55d old).

Live ingestion (eBay listings & graded sold-comps) is not configured in this environment, so prices are a real but point-in-time capture, not a live quote.

To enable primary-source graded comps, set GRADED_API_KEY and run make ingest-graded PROVIDER=pokemonapi (free tier).

Reference price
Live
Fair value basis
Live-anchored
Lowest ask (deal)
Live
Active listings
Live
Card image
Live
Recent sales
Simulated
Population data
Simulated
Liquidity metrics
Simulated
Liquidity analytics
Simulated
Price history
Simulated

Same character or set.

AssetFair ValueLowestDiscount30dAvailScore
Charizard GX (Shiny) — Hidden Fates — Secret Rare
Charizard GX (Shiny)Hidden FatesPSA 10Live-anchoredReal askas of Jun 4 · 56d oldsold-comp center2nd source (tcgcsv): $660 · sales-derived, ungradedView $550 · TCGPlayer
  • 10% below fair value+12 pts
  • Low active inventory+9 pts
  • Population growth slowing+7 pts
$1,566$1,40810.1%9.6%145
Charizard — XY Evolutions — Rare Holo
CharizardXY EvolutionsBGS 9.5Simulated
  • Reputable seller+7 pts
  • High valuation confidence+6 pts
  • High listing quality (graded)+6 pts
$64,723$62,5253.4%11.4%739
Base Set Booster Box (Sealed) — Base Set — Sealed
Base Set Booster Box (Sealed)Base SetSimulated
  • High valuation confidence+7 pts
  • Price up 15% over 30 days+6 pts
  • High listing quality (sealed)+6 pts
$2,628,248$2,635,548-0.3%15.4%1027
Mewtwo (Base) — Base Set — Holo Rare
Mewtwo (Base)Base SetPSA 9Live-anchoredReal askas of Jun 4 · 56d oldsold-comp center2nd source (tcgcsv): $77.61 · sales-derived, ungradedView $32.99 · TCGPlayer
  • 49% below fair value+35 pts
  • Low active inventory+9 pts
  • Price up 39% over 30 days+8 pts
$145$74.2348.8%39.1%166
Blastoise — Base Set — Holo Rare
BlastoiseBase SetPSA 10Live-anchoredReal askas of Jun 4 · 56d oldsold-comp center2nd source (tcgcsv): $229 · sales-derived, ungradedView $149 · TCGPlayer
  • 31% below fair value+35 pts
  • Low active inventory+9 pts
  • Price up 21% over 30 days+8 pts
$2,541$1,75530.9%21.1%175
Gyarados — Base Set — Rare Holo
GyaradosBase SetSimulated
  • 18% below fair value+21 pts
  • High valuation confidence+7 pts
  • Sales accelerating+7 pts
$1,222$1,00118.1%10.8%2251