Base Zard

PSA 10Live

Charizard · Base Set · Holo Rare · 4/102

high confidencebullish7030d 6.6%

Estimated Fair Value

$4,480

PSA 10 fair value pinned to the graded sold-comp center for this exact variant at $4500, as-of 2026-05-31 [Base Set UNLIMITED Charizard 4/102 PSA 10 — SOLD-comp center ~$4,500 (CYCLE-11 IMPROVE re-audit: completed-sales aggregators Grand Screen $3,000-6,000, pokemonpricing.com $4,000-7,000, CardGrading.app $3,000-5,000, all May 2026). DEMOTED: PokeScope/PKMhobby/PriceTracker guide $8-20k (guide/ask, runs 2-3x hot). Distinct from Shadowless (~$15-30k) and 1st-Edition ($200k-550k). Raw NM ~$400-572.] — a real recent SALE center, not a guide/ask price. Live ungraded reference $572.03 (implied grade premium ×7.9). Comparable sales below remain modeled structure around that real graded level. Real market data ingested from pokemontcg.io — point-in-time snapshot as-of 2026-06-04 (captured 2026-06-04), not a live quote.

Graded-equivalent ask $3,927 USD12.3% below

Lowest ask: real ungraded market ask $499.00 USD mapped to this graded asset's level (×7.9 → $3927.13 USD). Because the same premium scales both the fair value and the ask, this is the real UNGRADED market discount — not a graded-sale discount. Comparable sales below remain modeled structure. The lowest ask is about 12% below the anchored fair value. Real market data ingested from pokemontcg.io — point-in-time snapshot as-of 2026-06-04 (captured 2026-06-04), not a live quote.

2nd source (tcgcsv): $572 · sales-derived, ungraded · tcgcsv.com · as of Jun 4

View ungraded listing — $499 USD on TCGPlayer

Source: pokemontcg.io · as of Jun 4 · point-in-time snapshot, not a live quote · 55d old

Search live listings:eBay active eBay sold TCGplayer active

Bear Case

$3,796

Base Case

$4,480

Bull Case

$5,173

Price History

Dec 8Range $2.8K – $4.9KJun 5

Opportunity Score

12% below fair value+14 pts
Low active inventory+9 pts
High listing quality (graded)+6 pts
High valuation confidence+6 pts
Population growth slowing+4 pts
Strong demand (12 sales/mo)+4 pts
Sales accelerating+3 pts
Price up 7% over 30 days+3 pts

Investment Thesis

bullish70

Base Zard — Charizard (PSA 10) is currently modestly undervalued, with rising price momentum over the last 30 days (+6.6%). Estimated fair value is $4480 against a lowest active listing of $3927. Fair value is pinned to the real graded sold-comp center for this exact variant (a recent-sales center, not a guide or ask price), using a live ungraded reference from pokemontcg.io. PSA 10 fair value pinned to the graded sold-comp center for this exact variant at $4500, as-of 2026-05-31 [Base Set UNLIMITED Charizard 4/102 PSA 10 — SOLD-comp center ~$4,500 (CYCLE-11 IMPROVE re-audit: completed-sales aggregators Grand Screen $3,000-6,000, pokemonpricing.com $4,000-7,000, CardGrading.app $3,000-5,000, all May 2026). DEMOTED: PokeScope/PKMhobby/PriceTracker guide $8-20k (guide/ask, runs 2-3x hot). Distinct from Shadowless (~$15-30k) and 1st-Edition ($200k-550k). Raw NM ~$400-572.] — a real recent SALE center, not a guide/ask price. Live ungraded reference $572.03 (implied grade premium ×7.9). Comparable sales below remain modeled structure around that real graded level. Real market data ingested from pokemontcg.io — point-in-time snapshot as-of 2026-06-04 (captured 2026-06-04), not a live quote. Valuation confidence is high. The comparable sales below remain modeled around that anchor — they are not real recorded sales. The lowest ask traces to a real ungraded market ask, mapped to this graded level at $3927 (TCGPlayer); because the premium scales both sides, the 12% discount is the real ungraded market discount, not a graded-sale discount. The listing rows beneath remain modeled structure.

Bullish: rising prices (+6.6% over 30d) with healthy trading velocity and stable graded supply.

Risk Indicators

Thin liquidity — few active listings, wider spreads likely

Active Listings

Sales / Month

11.5

Velocity Score

57/100

Moderate

Sales Velocity 30d

+7.9%

Total Graded

8,141

Gem Mint

2,961

Population Growth

+2.3%

Slowing

Grading ROI & Population Trend

Is it worth paying to grade this card? A transparent profit model from the real ungraded cost and the audited graded value, plus a read on graded-supply momentum. The cost and odds levers are modeled assumptions you can adjust — not market-price pins.

Grading ROI (model)

+121.5%

Strong grading ROI

steady population

Population growing 4.6%/mo — steady supply across 4417 graded.

4,417 graded · 47% gem · +4.6%/mo

Raw cost: $499
All-in cost: $528+ $25.00 fee · $4.00 ship
Graded value (per gem): $4,480
Expected proceeds: $1,16930% gem → $1,344 · less 13% fee
Net profit / card: $641
Breakeven graded value: $2,023value needed to break even

Adjust modeled assumptions

Gem-grade rate30%

Grading fee / card$25.00

These are modeled estimates, not market-price pins.

Modeled gem-grade odds: 30% chance of PSA 10 (a modeled probability, not a market price). Non-gem outcomes are valued conservatively at $0.
Modeled grading-service fee: $25.00 per card, plus $4.00 shipping/insurance (modeled service costs, not market prices).
Modeled marketplace sell fee: 13.0% of graded proceeds (a modeled cost, not a market price).
Raw cost and graded value trace to the existing audited references/pins — this panel authors no new market-price value.

Liquidity & Comp Explorer

How easily does this asset trade? Days-to-sell, sell-through rate, the spread between the lowest ask and the recent sold center, and inventory depth — all modeled over this asset's recorded sales and active listings. Explore the sale distribution with a date-range filter and an outlier-trim toggle.

Liquidity & Comp Explorer

Simulated

Days to sell: 3.0dmodeled median sale gap
Sell-through: 88.0%over 90d window
Bid-ask spread: -23.6%lowest ask vs sold avg
Inventory depth: 1active listings
Recent sold avg: $5,137mean over 90d
Lowest ask: $3,927cheapest active listing

Comp Explorer

Trim outliers (IQR)

Sold from

Sold to

Min: $3,683
Median: $4,236
Mean: $4,500
Max: $5,639

Showing 17 of 17 sales

These liquidity signals are modeled deterministically over this asset's existing recorded sales and active listings — they author no new market-price value. Days-to-sell, sell-through and the bid-ask spread are analytical reads over those comps, not a live order book.

How Fair Value Is Built

A transparent, weighted blend of market signals — no black boxes.

Signal	Detail	Reference	Weight
recent sales	Volume-weighted average of recent sold comps	4742.86	50%
listing inventory	Average of active listing asking prices	3927.13	25%
price trend	Recent historical price trend projection	4429.98	25%
population pressure	Adjustment for grading population growth (more supply lowers value)	-1.13	50%
demand momentum	Adjustment for sales velocity momentum (rising demand raises value)	1.58	20%

Active Listings

Price	Marketplace	Condition	Seller	Listed	Ends	Link
$3,927	TCGPlayer	Graded	0	56d ago	Jan 1	View

Recent Sales

Price	Marketplace	Condition	Sold
$5,639	TCGPlayer	Graded	60d ago
$5,134	TCGPlayer	Graded	65d ago
$4,842	Mercari	Graded	68d ago
$5,076	PWCC	Graded	69d ago
$5,381	Mercari	Graded	73d ago
$4,861	TCGPlayer	Graded	76d ago
$5,029	TCGPlayer	Graded	79d ago
$4,087	Mercari	Graded	92d ago
$3,683	TCGPlayer	Graded	94d ago
$3,743	PWCC	Graded	95d ago
$4,236	Facebook Marketplace	Graded	97d ago
$4,309	Mercari	Graded	98d ago

Signal Track Record

Did this asset's own Opportunity Scores precede outperformance? Each row is a past as-of date, scored point-in-time, with the realized benchmark-relative return that followed.

Data Provenance

Which signals on this page are real market data versus modeled by the deterministic engine. The terminal marks every source honestly.

This market snapshot is stale — captured Jun 4 (55d old).

Live ingestion (eBay listings & graded sold-comps) is not configured in this environment, so prices are a real but point-in-time capture, not a live quote.

To enable primary-source graded comps, set GRADED_API_KEY and run make ingest-graded PROVIDER=pokemonapi (free tier).

Reference price: Live
Fair value basis: Live-anchored
Lowest ask (deal): Live
Active listings: Live
Card image: Live
Recent sales: Simulated
Population data: Simulated
Liquidity metrics: Simulated
Liquidity analytics: Simulated
Price history: Simulated

Same character or set.

Asset	Fair Value	Lowest	Discount	30d	Avail	Score
Charizard GX (Shiny)Hidden FatesPSA 10Live-anchoredReal askas of Jun 4 · 56d oldsold-comp center2nd source (tcgcsv): $660 · sales-derived, ungradedView $550 · TCGPlayer 10% below fair value+12 pts Low active inventory+9 pts High listing quality (graded)+6 pts eBay active eBay sold TCGplayer active	$1,566	$1,408	10.1%	2.6%	1	37
CharizardXY EvolutionsBGS 9.5Simulated Population growth slowing+8 pts Reputable seller+8 pts High valuation confidence+7 pts eBay active eBay sold TCGplayer active	$63,753	$60,771	4.7%	16.7%	21	50
Base Set Booster Box (Sealed)Base SetSimulated 27% below fair value+31 pts Reputable seller+8 pts Sales accelerating+7 pts eBay active eBay sold TCGplayer active	$2,528,255	$1,848,115	26.9%	26.4%	9	57
Mewtwo (Base)Base SetPSA 9Live-anchoredReal askas of Jun 4 · 56d oldsold-comp center2nd source (tcgcsv): $77.61 · sales-derived, ungradedView $32.99 · TCGPlayer 46% below fair value+35 pts Low active inventory+9 pts High listing quality (graded)+6 pts eBay active eBay sold TCGplayer active	$138	$74.23	46.2%	1.9%	1	58
BlastoiseBase SetPSA 10Live-anchoredReal askas of Jun 4 · 56d oldsold-comp center2nd source (tcgcsv): $229 · sales-derived, ungradedView $149 · TCGPlayer 25% below fair value+29 pts Low active inventory+9 pts Sales accelerating+7 pts eBay active eBay sold TCGplayer active	$2,347	$1,755	25.2%	2.0%	1	64
GyaradosBase SetSimulated 13% below fair value+15 pts High valuation confidence+7 pts Reputable seller+6 pts eBay active eBay sold TCGplayer active	$1,285	$1,123	12.6%	2.7%	10	43