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Dec 2Range $1.4K – $2.2KMay 30
Estimated Fair Value
$2,233
Lowest listing $2,0119.9% below
Bear Case
$1,904
Base Case
$2,233
Bull Case
$2,551
Price History
Opportunity Score
39- 10% below fair value+12 pts
- Sales accelerating+8 pts
- Reputable seller+8 pts
- High listing quality (graded)+6 pts
- High valuation confidence+4 pts
- Strong demand (4 sales/mo)+1 pts
Investment Thesis
bearish15Blastoise (PSA 10) is currently modestly undervalued, with softening price momentum over the last 30 days (-14.7%). Estimated fair value is $2233 against a lowest active listing of $2011. Valuation confidence is medium based on 9-plus recent comparable sales.
Bearish: softening prices (-14.7% over 30d) amid thin liquidity and stable graded supply.
Risk Indicators
- Negative price momentum over the last 30 days
Active Listings
9
Sales / Month
3.5
Velocity Score
18/100
Illiquid
Sales Velocity 30d
+20.9%
Total Graded
4,652
Gem Mint
1,505
Population Growth
+4.8%
Slowing
How Fair Value Is Built
A transparent, weighted blend of market signals — no black boxes.
| Signal | Detail | Reference | Weight |
|---|---|---|---|
| recent sales | Volume-weighted average of recent sold comps | 2181.84 | 50% |
| listing inventory | Average of active listing asking prices | 2305.28 | 25% |
| price trend | Recent historical price trend projection | 2116.07 | 25% |
| population pressure | Adjustment for grading population growth (more supply lowers value) | -2.42 | 50% |
| demand momentum | Adjustment for sales velocity momentum (rising demand raises value) | 4.18 | 20% |
Active Listings
| Price | Marketplace | Condition | Seller | Listed | Ends | Link |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| $2,002 | Mercari | Graded | 94 | 17d ago | Jan 1 | View |
| $2,043 | Facebook Marketplace | Graded | 90 | 14d ago | Jan 1 | View |
| $2,099 | PWCC | Graded | 70 | 11d ago | Jan 1 | View |
| $2,101 | PWCC | Graded | 92 | 7d ago | Jun 2 | View |
| $2,110 | eBay | Graded | 67 | 3d ago | Jan 1 | View |
| $2,160 | Facebook Marketplace | Graded | 83 | 12d ago | Jun 4 | View |
| $2,305 | Facebook Marketplace | Graded | 67 | 23h ago | Jun 1 | View |
| $2,332 | eBay | Graded | 78 | 9d ago | Jan 1 | View |
| $2,340 | TCGPlayer | Graded | 68 | 5d ago | Jan 1 | View |
| $2,346 | Mercari | Graded | 63 | 5d ago | Jan 1 | View |
| $2,347 | eBay | Graded | 68 | 18d ago | Jun 4 | View |
| $2,359 | Facebook Marketplace | Graded | 98 | 18d ago | Jan 1 | View |
Recent Sales
| Price | Marketplace | Condition | Sold |
|---|---|---|---|
| $2,332 | PWCC | Graded | 9h ago |
| $2,016 | TCGPlayer | Graded | 2d ago |
| $2,090 | TCGPlayer | Graded | 3d ago |
| $2,178 | PWCC | Graded | 3d ago |
| $1,913 | eBay | Graded | 4d ago |
| $2,125 | TCGPlayer | Graded | 12d ago |
| $2,231 | PWCC | Graded | 15d ago |
| $1,938 | TCGPlayer | Graded | 25d ago |
| $2,007 | eBay | Graded | 26d ago |
| $1,608 | Facebook Marketplace | Graded | 29d ago |
| $1,543 | Mercari | Graded | 38d ago |
| $1,523 | TCGPlayer | Graded | 40d ago |
Signal Track Record
Did this asset's own Opportunity Scores precede outperformance? Each row is a past as-of date, scored point-in-time, with the realized benchmark-relative return that followed.
Data Provenance
Which signals on this page are real market data versus modeled by the deterministic engine. The terminal marks every source honestly.
- Reference price
- Simulated
- Card image
- Simulated
- Recent sales
- Simulated
- Population data
- Simulated
- Liquidity metrics
- Simulated
- Price history
- Simulated
Related Assets
Same character or set.
| Asset | Fair Value | Lowest | Discount | 30d | Avail | Score |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
Base ZardBase SetPSA 10Simulated
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Rayquaza ex (Illustration Rare)Base SetSimulated
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Base Set Booster Box (Sealed)Base SetSimulated
| $47,109 | $40,446 | 14.1% | 11.9% | 23 | 53 |
Umbreon ex (Special Illustration)Base SetSimulated
| $2,134 | $1,639 | 23.2% | 24.9% | 23 | 57 |
Pikachu Ultra RareBase SetBGS 9Simulated
| $1,255 | $1,378 | -9.9% | 45.3% | 3 | 37 |
Mewtwo Ultra RareBase SetPSA 10Simulated
| $1,959 | $1,866 | 4.8% | 6.3% | 18 | 36 |