Blastoise

PSA 10Live

Blastoise · Base Set · Holo Rare · 2/102

medium confidenceneutral4830d 2.0%

Estimated Fair Value

$2,362

PSA 10 fair value pinned to the graded sold-comp center for this exact variant at $2700, as-of 2026-05-31 [Base Set UNLIMITED Blastoise 2/102 PSA 10 — sold center ~$2,700 (CYCLE-12 IMPROVE re-audit: triangulated between the confirmed DATED sold comps GradedCardInvestor eBay $2,197 Nov2023 / PWCC $2,220 Oct2023 and the more recent OG-Cards 2025 PSA-10 sold-derived $3,200 + Mavin sold high $3,286 — vintage Base Unlimited has appreciated across 2023->2026, so cycle-11's $2,400 sat at the LOW edge). Distinct from 1st-Ed PSA10 ($138,880 Goldin Feb 2026) and Shadowless. Raw NM ~$160-229.] — a real recent SALE center, not a guide/ask price. Live ungraded reference $229.23 (implied grade premium ×12). Comparable sales below remain modeled structure around that real graded level. Real market data ingested from pokemontcg.io — point-in-time snapshot as-of 2026-06-04 (captured 2026-06-04), not a live quote.

Graded-equivalent ask $1,755 USD25.7% below

Lowest ask: real ungraded market ask $149.00 USD mapped to this graded asset's level (×12 → $1755.22 USD). Because the same premium scales both the fair value and the ask, this is the real UNGRADED market discount — not a graded-sale discount. Comparable sales below remain modeled structure. The lowest ask is about 26% below the anchored fair value. Real market data ingested from pokemontcg.io — point-in-time snapshot as-of 2026-06-04 (captured 2026-06-04), not a live quote.

2nd source (tcgcsv): $229 · sales-derived, ungraded · tcgcsv.com · as of Jun 4

View ungraded listing — $149 USD on TCGPlayer

Source: pokemontcg.io · as of Jun 4 · point-in-time snapshot, not a live quote · 55d old

Search live listings:eBay active eBay sold TCGplayer active

Bear Case

$2,024

Base Case

$2,362

Bull Case

$2,691

Price History

Dec 8Range $1.6K – $2.7KJun 5

Opportunity Score

26% below fair value+30 pts
Low active inventory+9 pts
Population growth slowing+7 pts
High listing quality (graded)+6 pts
High valuation confidence+4 pts
Sales accelerating+3 pts
Strong demand (4 sales/mo)+1 pts

Investment Thesis

neutral48

Blastoise (PSA 10) is currently trading at a meaningful discount to fair value, with stable price momentum over the last 30 days (-2.0%). Estimated fair value is $2362 against a lowest active listing of $1755. Fair value is pinned to the real graded sold-comp center for this exact variant (a recent-sales center, not a guide or ask price), using a live ungraded reference from pokemontcg.io. PSA 10 fair value pinned to the graded sold-comp center for this exact variant at $2700, as-of 2026-05-31 [Base Set UNLIMITED Blastoise 2/102 PSA 10 — sold center ~$2,700 (CYCLE-12 IMPROVE re-audit: triangulated between the confirmed DATED sold comps GradedCardInvestor eBay $2,197 Nov2023 / PWCC $2,220 Oct2023 and the more recent OG-Cards 2025 PSA-10 sold-derived $3,200 + Mavin sold high $3,286 — vintage Base Unlimited has appreciated across 2023->2026, so cycle-11's $2,400 sat at the LOW edge). Distinct from 1st-Ed PSA10 ($138,880 Goldin Feb 2026) and Shadowless. Raw NM ~$160-229.] — a real recent SALE center, not a guide/ask price. Live ungraded reference $229.23 (implied grade premium ×12). Comparable sales below remain modeled structure around that real graded level. Real market data ingested from pokemontcg.io — point-in-time snapshot as-of 2026-06-04 (captured 2026-06-04), not a live quote. Valuation confidence is medium. The comparable sales below remain modeled around that anchor — they are not real recorded sales. The lowest ask traces to a real ungraded market ask, mapped to this graded level at $1755 (TCGPlayer); because the premium scales both sides, the 26% discount is the real ungraded market discount, not a graded-sale discount. The listing rows beneath remain modeled structure.

Neutral: flat 30-day price action with thin liquidity and stable graded supply.

Risk Indicators

Thin liquidity — few active listings, wider spreads likely

Active Listings

Sales / Month

4.5

Velocity Score

23/100

Illiquid

Sales Velocity 30d

+6.4%

Total Graded

3,515

Gem Mint

2,040

Population Growth

+0.9%

Stable supply

Grading ROI & Population Trend

Is it worth paying to grade this card? A transparent profit model from the real ungraded cost and the audited graded value, plus a read on graded-supply momentum. The cost and odds levers are modeled assumptions you can adjust — not market-price pins.

Grading ROI (model)

+246.3%

Strong grading ROI

steady population

Population growing 1.9%/mo — steady supply across 8073 graded.

8,073 graded · 24% gem · +1.9%/mo

Raw cost: $149
All-in cost: $178+ $25.00 fee · $4.00 ship
Graded value (per gem): $2,362
Expected proceeds: $61630% gem → $708 · less 13% fee
Net profit / card: $438
Breakeven graded value: $682value needed to break even

Adjust modeled assumptions

Gem-grade rate30%

Grading fee / card$25.00

These are modeled estimates, not market-price pins.

Modeled gem-grade odds: 30% chance of PSA 10 (a modeled probability, not a market price). Non-gem outcomes are valued conservatively at $0.
Modeled grading-service fee: $25.00 per card, plus $4.00 shipping/insurance (modeled service costs, not market prices).
Modeled marketplace sell fee: 13.0% of graded proceeds (a modeled cost, not a market price).
Raw cost and graded value trace to the existing audited references/pins — this panel authors no new market-price value.

Liquidity & Comp Explorer

How easily does this asset trade? Days-to-sell, sell-through rate, the spread between the lowest ask and the recent sold center, and inventory depth — all modeled over this asset's recorded sales and active listings. Explore the sale distribution with a date-range filter and an outlier-trim toggle.

Liquidity & Comp Explorer

Simulated

Days to sell: 2.0dmodeled median sale gap
Sell-through: 93.0%over 90d window
Bid-ask spread: -39.4%lowest ask vs sold avg
Inventory depth: 1active listings
Recent sold avg: $2,898mean over 90d
Lowest ask: $1,755cheapest active listing

Comp Explorer

Trim outliers (IQR)

Sold from

Sold to

Min: $2,065
Median: $2,606
Mean: $2,700
Max: $3,342

Showing 22 of 22 sales

These liquidity signals are modeled deterministically over this asset's existing recorded sales and active listings — they author no new market-price value. Days-to-sell, sell-through and the bid-ask spread are analytical reads over those comps, not a live order book.

How Fair Value Is Built

A transparent, weighted blend of market signals — no black boxes.

Signal	Detail	Reference	Weight
recent sales	Volume-weighted average of recent sold comps	2637.94	50%
listing inventory	Average of active listing asking prices	1755.22	25%
price trend	Recent historical price trend projection	2337.5	25%
population pressure	Adjustment for grading population growth (more supply lowers value)	-0.44	50%
demand momentum	Adjustment for sales velocity momentum (rising demand raises value)	1.28	20%

Active Listings

Price	Marketplace	Condition	Seller	Listed	Ends	Link
$1,755	TCGPlayer	Graded	0	56d ago	Jan 1	View

Recent Sales

Price	Marketplace	Condition	Sold
$3,342	Mercari	Graded	56d ago
$2,975	TCGPlayer	Graded	58d ago
$3,221	PWCC	Graded	58d ago
$3,321	TCGPlayer	Graded	60d ago
$2,980	Mercari	Graded	60d ago
$2,788	PWCC	Graded	63d ago
$3,229	eBay	Graded	69d ago
$3,096	TCGPlayer	Graded	74d ago
$2,689	TCGPlayer	Graded	74d ago
$2,521	Mercari	Graded	83d ago
$2,474	TCGPlayer	Graded	83d ago
$2,580	TCGPlayer	Graded	83d ago

Signal Track Record

Did this asset's own Opportunity Scores precede outperformance? Each row is a past as-of date, scored point-in-time, with the realized benchmark-relative return that followed.

Data Provenance

Which signals on this page are real market data versus modeled by the deterministic engine. The terminal marks every source honestly.

This market snapshot is stale — captured Jun 4 (55d old).

Live ingestion (eBay listings & graded sold-comps) is not configured in this environment, so prices are a real but point-in-time capture, not a live quote.

To enable primary-source graded comps, set GRADED_API_KEY and run make ingest-graded PROVIDER=pokemonapi (free tier).

Reference price: Live
Fair value basis: Live-anchored
Lowest ask (deal): Live
Active listings: Live
Card image: Live
Recent sales: Simulated
Population data: Simulated
Liquidity metrics: Simulated
Liquidity analytics: Simulated
Price history: Simulated

Same character or set.

Asset	Fair Value	Lowest	Discount	30d	Avail	Score
Base ZardBase SetPSA 10Live-anchoredReal askas of Jun 4 · 56d oldsold-comp center2nd source (tcgcsv): $572 · sales-derived, ungradedView $499 · TCGPlayer 12% below fair value+14 pts Low active inventory+9 pts High listing quality (graded)+6 pts eBay active eBay sold TCGplayer active	$4,467	$3,927	12.1%	6.6%	1	44
Base Set Booster Box (Sealed)Base SetSimulated 23% below fair value+27 pts Reputable seller+8 pts High listing quality (sealed)+6 pts eBay active eBay sold TCGplayer active	$2,427,767	$1,868,746	23.0%	26.4%	9	47
Mewtwo (Base)Base SetPSA 9Live-anchoredReal askas of Jun 4 · 56d oldsold-comp center2nd source (tcgcsv): $77.61 · sales-derived, ungradedView $32.99 · TCGPlayer 49% below fair value+35 pts Low active inventory+9 pts High listing quality (graded)+6 pts eBay active eBay sold TCGplayer active	$145	$74.23	48.8%	1.9%	1	67
Blastoise exScarlet & Violet 151Simulated 16% below fair value+19 pts High valuation confidence+7 pts Reputable seller+6 pts eBay active eBay sold TCGplayer active	$668	$559	16.3%	12.4%	13	47
Blastoise-EXXY EvolutionsSimulated 8% below fair value+10 pts High valuation confidence+7 pts High listing quality (near mint)+6 pts eBay active eBay sold TCGplayer active	$1,169	$1,074	8.2%	6.4%	10	35
Blastoise exScarlet & Violet 151Simulated 15% below fair value+18 pts Reputable seller+7 pts High valuation confidence+7 pts eBay active eBay sold TCGplayer active	$456	$387	15.0%	7.6%	12	45