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Hidden Fates Elite Trainer Box — Hidden Fates — SealedIllustration

Hidden Fates Elite Trainer Box

Simulated

Hidden Fates Elite Trainer Box · Hidden Fates · Sealed

high confidenceneutral4630d 6.2%
Estimated Fair Value
$682
Lowest listing $57316.0% below
Search live listings:eBay activeeBay soldTCGplayer active
Bear Case
$593
Base Case
$682
Bull Case
$773

Price History

Dec 8Range $198 – $364Jun 5

Opportunity Score

46
  • 16% below fair value+19 pts
  • Reputable seller+8 pts
  • High valuation confidence+7 pts
  • High listing quality (sealed)+6 pts
  • Strong demand (13 sales/mo)+4 pts
  • Sales accelerating+2 pts

Investment Thesis

neutral46

Hidden Fates Elite Trainer Box is currently trading at a meaningful discount to fair value, with softening price momentum over the last 30 days (-6.2%). Estimated fair value is $682 against a lowest active listing of $573. Valuation confidence is high based on 10-plus modeled comparable sales.

Neutral: softening prices (-6.2% over 30d) with healthy trading velocity and stable graded supply.

Active Listings
10
Sales / Month
13.0
Velocity Score
65/100
Fast-moving
Sales Velocity 30d
+5.9%
Confidence
98/100

Grading ROI & Population Trend

Is it worth paying to grade this card? A transparent profit model from the real ungraded cost and the audited graded value, plus a read on graded-supply momentum. The cost and odds levers are modeled assumptions you can adjust — not market-price pins.

Grading ROI (model)
-0.6%
Grading not economical
unknown population

No population data reported for this asset.

Raw cost
$573
All-in cost
$602+ $25.00 fee · $4.00 ship
Graded value (per gem)
$2,291
Expected proceeds
$59830% gem → $687 · less 13% fee
Net profit / card
-$3.79
Breakeven graded value
$2,306value needed to break even

Adjust modeled assumptions

These are modeled estimates, not market-price pins.

  • Modeled gem-grade odds: 30% chance of PSA 10 (a modeled probability, not a market price). Non-gem outcomes are valued conservatively at $0.
  • Modeled grading-service fee: $25.00 per card, plus $4.00 shipping/insurance (modeled service costs, not market prices).
  • Modeled marketplace sell fee: 13.0% of graded proceeds (a modeled cost, not a market price).
  • Raw cost and graded value trace to the existing audited references/pins — this panel authors no new market-price value.

Liquidity & Comp Explorer

How easily does this asset trade? Days-to-sell, sell-through rate, the spread between the lowest ask and the recent sold center, and inventory depth — all modeled over this asset's recorded sales and active listings. Explore the sale distribution with a date-range filter and an outlier-trim toggle.

Liquidity & Comp Explorer

Simulated
Days to sell
4.5dmodeled median sale gap
Sell-through
30.0%over 90d window
Bid-ask spread
-19.2%lowest ask vs sold avg
Inventory depth
7active listings
Recent sold avg
$252mean over 90d
Lowest ask
$204cheapest active listing

Comp Explorer

Min
$234
Median
$259
Mean
$256
Max
$280

Showing 6 of 6 sales

These liquidity signals are modeled deterministically over this asset's existing recorded sales and active listings — they author no new market-price value. Days-to-sell, sell-through and the bid-ask spread are analytical reads over those comps, not a live order book.

How Fair Value Is Built

A transparent, weighted blend of market signals — no black boxes.

SignalDetailReferenceWeight
recent salesVolume-weighted average of recent sold comps673.5750%
listing inventoryAverage of active listing asking prices668.625%
price trendRecent historical price trend projection681.6525%
demand momentumAdjustment for sales velocity momentum (rising demand raises value)1.1720%

Active Listings

PriceMarketplaceConditionSellerListedEndsLink
$204eBaySealed8472d agoJun 8View
$216Facebook MarketplaceSealed9865d agoJan 1View
$218Facebook MarketplaceSealed9071d agoJan 1View
$237Facebook MarketplaceSealed9865d agoJun 6View
$257PWCCSealed8765d agoJan 1View
$259Facebook MarketplaceSealed7658d agoJan 1View
$267eBaySealed9155d agoJan 1View

Recent Sales

PriceMarketplaceConditionSold
$234eBaySealed66d ago
$244MercariSealed75d ago
$280eBaySealed75d ago
$260PWCCSealed99d ago
$262TCGPlayerSealed105d ago
$257eBaySealed109d ago

Signal Track Record

Did this asset's own Opportunity Scores precede outperformance? Each row is a past as-of date, scored point-in-time, with the realized benchmark-relative return that followed.

Data Provenance

Which signals on this page are real market data versus modeled by the deterministic engine. The terminal marks every source honestly.

Reference price
Simulated
Fair value basis
Simulated
Lowest ask (deal)
Simulated
Active listings
Simulated
Card image
Simulated
Recent sales
Simulated
Population data
Simulated
Liquidity metrics
Simulated
Liquidity analytics
Simulated
Price history
Simulated

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