Charizard GX (Shiny)

PSA 10Live

Charizard GX (Shiny) · Hidden Fates · Secret Rare · SV49/SV94

high confidenceneutral6030d 3.4%

Estimated Fair Value

$1,630

PSA 10 fair value pinned to the graded sold-comp center for this exact variant at $1690, as-of 2026-05-31 [Hidden Fates Shiny Vault Charizard GX SV49/SV94 PSA 10 — sold center ~$1,690 (CYCLE-11 IMPROVE re-audit: SCI last sale $1,700 / 14-day avg $1,670 May 29 2026; Card Codex market $1,725). CGC 10 ($2,495-2,500) excluded as a higher tier; PSA 9 $800 excluded. Raw ~$250-500.] — a real recent SALE center, not a guide/ask price. Live ungraded reference $660.38 (implied grade premium ×2.6). Comparable sales below remain modeled structure around that real graded level. Real market data ingested from pokemontcg.io — point-in-time snapshot as-of 2026-06-04 (captured 2026-06-04), not a live quote.

Graded-equivalent ask $1,408 USD13.6% below

Lowest ask: real ungraded market ask $550.00 USD mapped to this graded asset's level (×2.6 → $1408.00 USD). Because the same premium scales both the fair value and the ask, this is the real UNGRADED market discount — not a graded-sale discount. Comparable sales below remain modeled structure. The lowest ask is about 14% below the anchored fair value. Real market data ingested from pokemontcg.io — point-in-time snapshot as-of 2026-06-04 (captured 2026-06-04), not a live quote.

2nd source (tcgcsv): $660 · sales-derived, ungraded · tcgcsv.com · as of Jun 4

View ungraded listing — $550 USD on TCGPlayer

Source: pokemontcg.io · as of Jun 4 · point-in-time snapshot, not a live quote · 55d old

Search live listings:eBay active eBay sold TCGplayer active

Bear Case

$1,381

Base Case

$1,630

Bull Case

$1,874

Price History

Dec 8Range $1.4K – $1.9KJun 5

Opportunity Score

14% below fair value+16 pts
Low active inventory+9 pts
High listing quality (graded)+6 pts
High valuation confidence+5 pts
Population growth slowing+5 pts
Strong demand (6 sales/mo)+2 pts
Price up 3% over 30 days+1 pts

Investment Thesis

neutral60

Charizard GX (Shiny) (PSA 10) is currently modestly undervalued, with stable price momentum over the last 30 days (+3.4%). Estimated fair value is $1630 against a lowest active listing of $1408. Fair value is pinned to the real graded sold-comp center for this exact variant (a recent-sales center, not a guide or ask price), using a live ungraded reference from pokemontcg.io. PSA 10 fair value pinned to the graded sold-comp center for this exact variant at $1690, as-of 2026-05-31 [Hidden Fates Shiny Vault Charizard GX SV49/SV94 PSA 10 — sold center ~$1,690 (CYCLE-11 IMPROVE re-audit: SCI last sale $1,700 / 14-day avg $1,670 May 29 2026; Card Codex market $1,725). CGC 10 ($2,495-2,500) excluded as a higher tier; PSA 9 $800 excluded. Raw ~$250-500.] — a real recent SALE center, not a guide/ask price. Live ungraded reference $660.38 (implied grade premium ×2.6). Comparable sales below remain modeled structure around that real graded level. Real market data ingested from pokemontcg.io — point-in-time snapshot as-of 2026-06-04 (captured 2026-06-04), not a live quote. Valuation confidence is high. The comparable sales below remain modeled around that anchor — they are not real recorded sales. The lowest ask traces to a real ungraded market ask, mapped to this graded level at $1408 (TCGPlayer); because the premium scales both sides, the 14% discount is the real ungraded market discount, not a graded-sale discount. The listing rows beneath remain modeled structure.

Neutral: flat 30-day price action with thin liquidity and stable graded supply.

Risk Indicators

Thin liquidity — few active listings, wider spreads likely

Active Listings

Sales / Month

6.5

Velocity Score

33/100

Moderate

Sales Velocity 30d

+0.3%

Total Graded

1,481

Gem Mint

364

Population Growth

+2.0%

Slowing

Grading ROI & Population Trend

Is it worth paying to grade this card? A transparent profit model from the real ungraded cost and the audited graded value, plus a read on graded-supply momentum. The cost and odds levers are modeled assumptions you can adjust — not market-price pins.

Grading ROI (model)

-26.5%

Grading not economical

slowing population

Population growth slowing to -0.1%/mo — supply tightening across 2180 graded.

2,180 graded · 41% gem · -0.1%/mo

Raw cost: $550
All-in cost: $579+ $25.00 fee · $4.00 ship
Graded value (per gem): $1,630
Expected proceeds: $42530% gem → $489 · less 13% fee
Net profit / card: -$153.56
Breakeven graded value: $2,218value needed to break even

Adjust modeled assumptions

Gem-grade rate30%

Grading fee / card$25.00

These are modeled estimates, not market-price pins.

Modeled gem-grade odds: 30% chance of PSA 10 (a modeled probability, not a market price). Non-gem outcomes are valued conservatively at $0.
Modeled grading-service fee: $25.00 per card, plus $4.00 shipping/insurance (modeled service costs, not market prices).
Modeled marketplace sell fee: 13.0% of graded proceeds (a modeled cost, not a market price).
Raw cost and graded value trace to the existing audited references/pins — this panel authors no new market-price value.

Liquidity & Comp Explorer

How easily does this asset trade? Days-to-sell, sell-through rate, the spread between the lowest ask and the recent sold center, and inventory depth — all modeled over this asset's recorded sales and active listings. Explore the sale distribution with a date-range filter and an outlier-trim toggle.

Liquidity & Comp Explorer

Simulated

Days to sell: 10.7dmodeled median sale gap
Sell-through: 75.0%over 90d window
Bid-ask spread: -13.2%lowest ask vs sold avg
Inventory depth: 1active listings
Recent sold avg: $1,622mean over 90d
Lowest ask: $1,408cheapest active listing

Comp Explorer

Trim outliers (IQR)

Sold from

Sold to

Min: $1,519
Median: $1,732
Mean: $1,690
Max: $1,780

Showing 6 of 6 sales

These liquidity signals are modeled deterministically over this asset's existing recorded sales and active listings — they author no new market-price value. Days-to-sell, sell-through and the bid-ask spread are analytical reads over those comps, not a live order book.

How Fair Value Is Built

A transparent, weighted blend of market signals — no black boxes.

Signal	Detail	Reference	Weight
recent sales	Volume-weighted average of recent sold comps	1752.57	50%
listing inventory	Average of active listing asking prices	1408	25%
price trend	Recent historical price trend projection	1669.85	25%
population pressure	Adjustment for grading population growth (more supply lowers value)	-1.01	50%
demand momentum	Adjustment for sales velocity momentum (rising demand raises value)	0.06	20%

Active Listings

Price	Marketplace	Condition	Seller	Listed	Ends	Link
$1,408	TCGPlayer	Graded	0	56d ago	Jan 1	View

Recent Sales

Price	Marketplace	Condition	Sold
$1,732	Facebook Marketplace	Graded	55d ago
$1,615	Facebook Marketplace	Graded	69d ago
$1,519	Mercari	Graded	77d ago
$1,780	PWCC	Graded	95d ago
$1,733	eBay	Graded	97d ago
$1,761	Facebook Marketplace	Graded	103d ago

Signal Track Record

Did this asset's own Opportunity Scores precede outperformance? Each row is a past as-of date, scored point-in-time, with the realized benchmark-relative return that followed.

Data Provenance

Which signals on this page are real market data versus modeled by the deterministic engine. The terminal marks every source honestly.

This market snapshot is stale — captured Jun 4 (55d old).

Live ingestion (eBay listings & graded sold-comps) is not configured in this environment, so prices are a real but point-in-time capture, not a live quote.

To enable primary-source graded comps, set GRADED_API_KEY and run make ingest-graded PROVIDER=pokemonapi (free tier).

Reference price: Live
Fair value basis: Live-anchored
Lowest ask (deal): Live
Active listings: Live
Card image: Live
Recent sales: Simulated
Population data: Simulated
Liquidity metrics: Simulated
Liquidity analytics: Simulated
Price history: Simulated

Same character or set.

Asset	Fair Value	Lowest	Discount	30d	Avail	Score
Base ZardBase SetPSA 10Live-anchoredReal askas of Jun 4 · 56d oldsold-comp center2nd source (tcgcsv): $572 · sales-derived, ungradedView $499 · TCGPlayer 15% below fair value+17 pts Low active inventory+9 pts Population growth slowing+7 pts eBay active eBay sold TCGplayer active	$4,609	$3,927	14.8%	8.7%	1	56
CharizardXY EvolutionsBGS 9.5Simulated Sales accelerating+10 pts 7% below fair value+9 pts High valuation confidence+7 pts eBay active eBay sold TCGplayer active	$64,458	$59,661	7.4%	10.7%	8	53
EeveeHidden FatesSimulated 12% below fair value+14 pts Price up 26% over 30 days+8 pts High listing quality (near mint)+6 pts eBay active eBay sold TCGplayer active	$298	$262	12.2%	25.7%	23	45
Hidden Fates Elite Trainer BoxHidden FatesSimulated 16% below fair value+19 pts Sales accelerating+11 pts Reputable seller+8 pts eBay active eBay sold TCGplayer active	$716	$602	15.9%	0.7%	23	56
ButterfreeHidden FatesSimulated 16% below fair value+19 pts High listing quality (near mint)+6 pts Reputable seller+6 pts eBay active eBay sold TCGplayer active	$81.15	$67.93	16.3%	13.3%	19	39
ArbokHidden FatesBGS 9Simulated 19% below fair value+22 pts High valuation confidence+7 pts Reputable seller+6 pts eBay active eBay sold TCGplayer active	$110	$89.14	18.9%	7.2%	15	48