Moonbreon

PSA 10Live

Umbreon VMAX (Alt Art) · Evolving Skies · Alt Art · 215/203

Character: Umbreon

high confidenceneutral4930d 3.3%

Estimated Fair Value

$1,993

PSA 10 fair value pinned to the graded sold-comp center for this exact variant at $2050, as-of 2026-05-31 [Evolving Skies Umbreon VMAX alt art 'Moonbreon' PSA 10 — sold center ~$2,050 (CYCLE-12 IMPROVE re-audit, late May 2026: SCI last sale $2,127.67, PokeScope market $2,005.20, GameStop graded PSA-10 ~$2,100). CORRECTION: cycle-11's ~$1,450 (Pokeval Apr 2026) was a real sold center that has since APPRECIATED ~40% — high-liquidity (~400-600 sales/mo) so the move is well-defined across three independent mid-2026 sources. BGS Black Label $2,800-3,700 and live Fanatics/eBay asks $2k-11k still demoted (not PSA 10 sold). The lesson: a 'SUPPORTED' modern chase is NOT frozen — re-fetch every cycle.] — a real recent SALE center, not a guide/ask price. Live ungraded reference $2261.15 (implied grade premium ×0.91). Comparable sales below remain modeled structure around that real graded level. Real market data ingested from pokemontcg.io — point-in-time snapshot as-of 2026-06-04 (captured 2026-06-04), not a live quote.

Real lowest ask $1,820 USD8.7% below

Lowest ask: real ungraded market ask $2000.00 USD mapped to this graded asset's level (×0.91 → $1820.00 USD). Because the same premium scales both the fair value and the ask, this is the real UNGRADED market discount — not a graded-sale discount. Comparable sales below remain modeled structure. The lowest ask is about 9% below the anchored fair value. Real market data ingested from pokemontcg.io — point-in-time snapshot as-of 2026-06-04 (captured 2026-06-04), not a live quote.

2nd source (tcgcsv): $2,261 · sales-derived, ungraded · tcgcsv.com · as of Jun 4

Buy — real lowest ask $1,820 USD on TCGPlayer

Source: pokemontcg.io · as of Jun 4 · point-in-time snapshot, not a live quote · 55d old

Search live listings:eBay active eBay sold TCGplayer active

Bear Case

$1,738

Base Case

$1,993

Bull Case

$2,243

Price History

Dec 8Range $1.5K – $2.6KJun 5

Opportunity Score

9% below fair value+10 pts
Low active inventory+9 pts
Population growth slowing+8 pts
High listing quality (graded)+6 pts
High valuation confidence+6 pts
Strong demand (8 sales/mo)+3 pts

Investment Thesis

neutral49

Moonbreon — Umbreon VMAX (Alt Art) (PSA 10) is currently modestly undervalued, with stable price momentum over the last 30 days (-3.3%). Estimated fair value is $1993 against a lowest active listing of $1820. Fair value is anchored 1:1 to a live ungraded market price from pokemontcg.io. PSA 10 fair value pinned to the graded sold-comp center for this exact variant at $2050, as-of 2026-05-31 [Evolving Skies Umbreon VMAX alt art 'Moonbreon' PSA 10 — sold center ~$2,050 (CYCLE-12 IMPROVE re-audit, late May 2026: SCI last sale $2,127.67, PokeScope market $2,005.20, GameStop graded PSA-10 ~$2,100). CORRECTION: cycle-11's ~$1,450 (Pokeval Apr 2026) was a real sold center that has since APPRECIATED ~40% — high-liquidity (~400-600 sales/mo) so the move is well-defined across three independent mid-2026 sources. BGS Black Label $2,800-3,700 and live Fanatics/eBay asks $2k-11k still demoted (not PSA 10 sold). The lesson: a 'SUPPORTED' modern chase is NOT frozen — re-fetch every cycle.] — a real recent SALE center, not a guide/ask price. Live ungraded reference $2261.15 (implied grade premium ×0.91). Comparable sales below remain modeled structure around that real graded level. Real market data ingested from pokemontcg.io — point-in-time snapshot as-of 2026-06-04 (captured 2026-06-04), not a live quote. Valuation confidence is high. The comparable sales below remain modeled around that anchor — they are not real recorded sales. The lowest ask of $1820 is the real lowest available market ask (TCGPlayer), so the 9% discount is derived from real data; the comparable rows beneath remain modeled structure.

Neutral: flat 30-day price action with thin liquidity and stable graded supply.

Risk Indicators

Thin liquidity — few active listings, wider spreads likely

Active Listings

Sales / Month

8.5

Velocity Score

43/100

Moderate

Sales Velocity 30d

-3.8%

Total Graded

1,150

Gem Mint

480

Population Growth

+0.1%

Stable supply

Grading ROI & Population Trend

Is it worth paying to grade this card? A transparent profit model from the real ungraded cost and the audited graded value, plus a read on graded-supply momentum. The cost and odds levers are modeled assumptions you can adjust — not market-price pins.

Grading ROI (model)

-74.4%

Grading not economical

slowing population

Population growth slowing to 0.5%/mo — supply tightening across 7176 graded.

7,176 graded · 31% gem · +0.5%/mo

Raw cost: $2,000
All-in cost: $2,029+ $25.00 fee · $4.00 ship
Graded value (per gem): $1,993
Expected proceeds: $52030% gem → $598 · less 13% fee
Net profit / card: -$1,508.76
Breakeven graded value: $7,774value needed to break even

Adjust modeled assumptions

Gem-grade rate30%

Grading fee / card$25.00

These are modeled estimates, not market-price pins.

Modeled gem-grade odds: 30% chance of PSA 10 (a modeled probability, not a market price). Non-gem outcomes are valued conservatively at $0.
Modeled grading-service fee: $25.00 per card, plus $4.00 shipping/insurance (modeled service costs, not market prices).
Modeled marketplace sell fee: 13.0% of graded proceeds (a modeled cost, not a market price).
Raw cost and graded value trace to the existing audited references/pins — this panel authors no new market-price value.

Liquidity & Comp Explorer

How easily does this asset trade? Days-to-sell, sell-through rate, the spread between the lowest ask and the recent sold center, and inventory depth — all modeled over this asset's recorded sales and active listings. Explore the sale distribution with a date-range filter and an outlier-trim toggle.

Liquidity & Comp Explorer

Simulated

Days to sell: 0.9dmodeled median sale gap
Sell-through: 94.0%over 90d window
Bid-ask spread: -10.1%lowest ask vs sold avg
Inventory depth: 1active listings
Recent sold avg: $2,024mean over 90d
Lowest ask: $1,820cheapest active listing

Comp Explorer

Trim outliers (IQR)

Sold from

Sold to

Min: $1,881
Median: $2,059
Mean: $2,040
Max: $2,163

Showing 21 of 24 sales · 3 outliers trimmed

These liquidity signals are modeled deterministically over this asset's existing recorded sales and active listings — they author no new market-price value. Days-to-sell, sell-through and the bid-ask spread are analytical reads over those comps, not a live order book.

How Fair Value Is Built

A transparent, weighted blend of market signals — no black boxes.

Signal	Detail	Reference	Weight
recent sales	Volume-weighted average of recent sold comps	2047.74	50%
listing inventory	Average of active listing asking prices	1820	25%
price trend	Recent historical price trend projection	2122.62	25%
population pressure	Adjustment for grading population growth (more supply lowers value)	-0.06	50%
demand momentum	Adjustment for sales velocity momentum (rising demand raises value)	-0.76	20%

Active Listings

Price	Marketplace	Condition	Seller	Listed	Ends	Link
$1,820	TCGPlayer	Graded	0	56d ago	Jan 1	View

Recent Sales

Price	Marketplace	Condition	Sold
$1,899	TCGPlayer	Graded	54d ago
$1,881	Mercari	Graded	54d ago
$2,059	eBay	Graded	55d ago
$1,780	eBay	Graded	56d ago
$2,016	Facebook Marketplace	Graded	57d ago
$2,105	PWCC	Graded	66d ago
$2,089	Facebook Marketplace	Graded	66d ago
$1,939	PWCC	Graded	66d ago
$2,163	TCGPlayer	Graded	80d ago
$1,897	TCGPlayer	Graded	81d ago
$2,105	TCGPlayer	Graded	82d ago
$2,021	Mercari	Graded	84d ago

Signal Track Record

Did this asset's own Opportunity Scores precede outperformance? Each row is a past as-of date, scored point-in-time, with the realized benchmark-relative return that followed.

Data Provenance

Which signals on this page are real market data versus modeled by the deterministic engine. The terminal marks every source honestly.

This market snapshot is stale — captured Jun 4 (55d old).

Live ingestion (eBay listings & graded sold-comps) is not configured in this environment, so prices are a real but point-in-time capture, not a live quote.

To enable primary-source graded comps, set GRADED_API_KEY and run make ingest-graded PROVIDER=pokemonapi (free tier).

Reference price: Live
Fair value basis: Live-anchored
Lowest ask (deal): Live
Active listings: Live
Card image: Live
Recent sales: Simulated
Population data: Simulated
Liquidity metrics: Simulated
Liquidity analytics: Simulated
Price history: Simulated

Same character or set.

Asset	Fair Value	Lowest	Discount	30d	Avail	Score
UmbreonPrismatic EvolutionsPSA 9Simulated High valuation confidence+7 pts 6% below fair value+6 pts Price up 15% over 30 days+6 pts eBay active eBay sold TCGplayer active	$14,856	$14,036	5.5%	14.9%	19	36
Rayquaza VMAX (Alt Art)Evolving SkiesPSA 10Live-anchoredReal askas of Jun 4 · 56d oldsold-comp center2nd source (tcgcsv): $983 · sales-derived, ungradedView $850 · TCGPlayer 12% below fair value+14 pts Low active inventory+9 pts Population growth slowing+8 pts eBay active eBay sold TCGplayer active	$2,115	$1,861	12.0%	15.9%	1	46
Evolving Skies Booster BoxEvolving SkiesSimulated 11% below fair value+13 pts Reputable seller+7 pts High valuation confidence+6 pts eBay active eBay sold TCGplayer active	$10,148	$8,986	11.4%	20.0%	5	40
Sylveon VMAX (Alt Art)Evolving SkiesPSA 10Live-anchoredReal askas of Jun 4 · 56d oldsold-comp center2nd source (tcgcsv): $384 · sales-derived, ungradedView $450 · TCGPlayer Low active inventory+9 pts High listing quality (graded)+6 pts High valuation confidence+6 pts eBay active eBay sold TCGplayer active	$665	$774	-16.4%	1.8%	1	26
RaichuEvolving SkiesSimulated Sales accelerating+10 pts Reputable seller+7 pts High valuation confidence+7 pts eBay active eBay sold TCGplayer active	$88.08	$84.01	4.6%	13.8%	23	45
LilligantEvolving SkiesSimulated Price up 21% over 30 days+8 pts 7% below fair value+8 pts Reputable seller+8 pts eBay active eBay sold TCGplayer active	$72.90	$68.02	6.7%	20.7%	17	47