Rayquaza VMAX (Alt Art)

PSA 10Live

Rayquaza VMAX (Alt Art) · Evolving Skies · Alt Art · 218/203

high confidencebearish2630d 15.9%

Estimated Fair Value

$2,054

PSA 10 fair value pinned to the graded sold-comp center for this exact variant at $2150, as-of 2026-05-31 [Evolving Skies Rayquaza VMAX alt art 218/203 PSA 10 — sold center ~$2,150 (CYCLE-11 IMPROVE re-audit: Card Ladder 128-sale avg $2,182.66, low $1,560, high $3,008, last sale $2,633.33 May 27 2026; eBay sold cluster $2,025-$2,150). PriceCharting ~$1,700 is a lagging guide aggregate, demoted. Raw ~$650-980.] — a real recent SALE center, not a guide/ask price. Live ungraded reference $982.89 (implied grade premium ×2.2). Comparable sales below remain modeled structure around that real graded level. Real market data ingested from pokemontcg.io — point-in-time snapshot as-of 2026-06-04 (captured 2026-06-04), not a live quote.

Graded-equivalent ask $1,861 USD9.4% below

Lowest ask: real ungraded market ask $849.99 USD mapped to this graded asset's level (×2.2 → $1861.48 USD). Because the same premium scales both the fair value and the ask, this is the real UNGRADED market discount — not a graded-sale discount. Comparable sales below remain modeled structure. The lowest ask is about 9% below the anchored fair value. Real market data ingested from pokemontcg.io — point-in-time snapshot as-of 2026-06-04 (captured 2026-06-04), not a live quote.

2nd source (tcgcsv): $983 · sales-derived, ungraded · tcgcsv.com · as of Jun 4

View ungraded listing — $850 USD on TCGPlayer

Source: pokemontcg.io · as of Jun 4 · point-in-time snapshot, not a live quote · 55d old

Search live listings:eBay active eBay sold TCGplayer active

Bear Case

$1,750

Base Case

$2,054

Bull Case

$2,349

Price History

Dec 8Range $1.8K – $2.5KJun 5

Opportunity Score

9% below fair value+11 pts
Low active inventory+9 pts
High listing quality (graded)+6 pts
Strong demand (18 sales/mo)+6 pts
High valuation confidence+6 pts
Population growth slowing+4 pts

Investment Thesis

bearish26

Rayquaza VMAX (Alt Art) (PSA 10) is currently modestly undervalued, with softening price momentum over the last 30 days (-15.9%). Estimated fair value is $2054 against a lowest active listing of $1861. Fair value is pinned to the real graded sold-comp center for this exact variant (a recent-sales center, not a guide or ask price), using a live ungraded reference from pokemontcg.io. PSA 10 fair value pinned to the graded sold-comp center for this exact variant at $2150, as-of 2026-05-31 [Evolving Skies Rayquaza VMAX alt art 218/203 PSA 10 — sold center ~$2,150 (CYCLE-11 IMPROVE re-audit: Card Ladder 128-sale avg $2,182.66, low $1,560, high $3,008, last sale $2,633.33 May 27 2026; eBay sold cluster $2,025-$2,150). PriceCharting ~$1,700 is a lagging guide aggregate, demoted. Raw ~$650-980.] — a real recent SALE center, not a guide/ask price. Live ungraded reference $982.89 (implied grade premium ×2.2). Comparable sales below remain modeled structure around that real graded level. Real market data ingested from pokemontcg.io — point-in-time snapshot as-of 2026-06-04 (captured 2026-06-04), not a live quote. Valuation confidence is high. The comparable sales below remain modeled around that anchor — they are not real recorded sales. The lowest ask traces to a real ungraded market ask, mapped to this graded level at $1861 (TCGPlayer); because the premium scales both sides, the 9% discount is the real ungraded market discount, not a graded-sale discount. The listing rows beneath remain modeled structure.

Bearish: softening prices (-15.9% over 30d) amid healthy trading velocity and stable graded supply.

Risk Indicators

Thin liquidity — few active listings, wider spreads likely
Negative price momentum over the last 30 days

Active Listings

Sales / Month

18.5

Velocity Score

93/100

Fast-moving

Sales Velocity 30d

+0.9%

Total Graded

6,289

Gem Mint

1,434

Population Growth

+2.3%

Slowing

Grading ROI & Population Trend

Is it worth paying to grade this card? A transparent profit model from the real ungraded cost and the audited graded value, plus a read on graded-supply momentum. The cost and odds levers are modeled assumptions you can adjust — not market-price pins.

Grading ROI (model)

-39.0%

Grading not economical

scarce population

Only 556 graded copies exist (21% gem) — a scarce, thin supply.

556 graded · 21% gem · +0.3%/mo

Raw cost: $850
All-in cost: $879+ $25.00 fee · $4.00 ship
Graded value (per gem): $2,054
Expected proceeds: $53630% gem → $616 · less 13% fee
Net profit / card: -$342.96
Breakeven graded value: $3,368value needed to break even

Adjust modeled assumptions

Gem-grade rate30%

Grading fee / card$25.00

These are modeled estimates, not market-price pins.

Modeled gem-grade odds: 30% chance of PSA 10 (a modeled probability, not a market price). Non-gem outcomes are valued conservatively at $0.
Modeled grading-service fee: $25.00 per card, plus $4.00 shipping/insurance (modeled service costs, not market prices).
Modeled marketplace sell fee: 13.0% of graded proceeds (a modeled cost, not a market price).
Raw cost and graded value trace to the existing audited references/pins — this panel authors no new market-price value.

Liquidity & Comp Explorer

How easily does this asset trade? Days-to-sell, sell-through rate, the spread between the lowest ask and the recent sold center, and inventory depth — all modeled over this asset's recorded sales and active listings. Explore the sale distribution with a date-range filter and an outlier-trim toggle.

Liquidity & Comp Explorer

Simulated

Days to sell: 2.5dmodeled median sale gap
Sell-through: 89.0%over 90d window
Bid-ask spread: -12.0%lowest ask vs sold avg
Inventory depth: 1active listings
Recent sold avg: $2,116mean over 90d
Lowest ask: $1,861cheapest active listing

Comp Explorer

Trim outliers (IQR)

Sold from

Sold to

Min: $1,960
Median: $2,099
Mean: $2,124
Max: $2,343

Showing 12 of 13 sales · 1 outlier trimmed

These liquidity signals are modeled deterministically over this asset's existing recorded sales and active listings — they author no new market-price value. Days-to-sell, sell-through and the bid-ask spread are analytical reads over those comps, not a live order book.

How Fair Value Is Built

A transparent, weighted blend of market signals — no black boxes.

Signal	Detail	Reference	Weight
recent sales	Volume-weighted average of recent sold comps	2160.37	50%
listing inventory	Average of active listing asking prices	1861.48	25%
price trend	Recent historical price trend projection	2113.12	25%
population pressure	Adjustment for grading population growth (more supply lowers value)	-1.14	50%
demand momentum	Adjustment for sales velocity momentum (rising demand raises value)	0.18	20%

Active Listings

Price	Marketplace	Condition	Seller	Listed	Ends	Link
$1,861	TCGPlayer	Graded	0	56d ago	Jan 1	View

Recent Sales

Price	Marketplace	Condition	Sold
$2,037	eBay	Graded	66d ago
$2,075	TCGPlayer	Graded	67d ago
$2,138	eBay	Graded	75d ago
$2,343	PWCC	Graded	78d ago
$2,299	PWCC	Graded	81d ago
$1,960	TCGPlayer	Graded	84d ago
$1,960	eBay	Graded	85d ago
$2,119	eBay	Graded	88d ago
$2,177	TCGPlayer	Graded	92d ago
$2,460	Mercari	Graded	93d ago
$2,224	Facebook Marketplace	Graded	96d ago
$2,079	TCGPlayer	Graded	109d ago

Signal Track Record

Did this asset's own Opportunity Scores precede outperformance? Each row is a past as-of date, scored point-in-time, with the realized benchmark-relative return that followed.

Data Provenance

Which signals on this page are real market data versus modeled by the deterministic engine. The terminal marks every source honestly.

This market snapshot is stale — captured Jun 4 (55d old).

Live ingestion (eBay listings & graded sold-comps) is not configured in this environment, so prices are a real but point-in-time capture, not a live quote.

To enable primary-source graded comps, set GRADED_API_KEY and run make ingest-graded PROVIDER=pokemonapi (free tier).

Reference price: Live
Fair value basis: Live-anchored
Lowest ask (deal): Live
Active listings: Live
Card image: Live
Recent sales: Simulated
Population data: Simulated
Liquidity metrics: Simulated
Liquidity analytics: Simulated
Price history: Simulated

Same character or set.

Asset	Fair Value	Lowest	Discount	30d	Avail	Score
MoonbreonEvolving SkiesPSA 10Live-anchoredReal askas of Jun 4 · 56d oldsold-comp center2nd source (tcgcsv): $2,261 · sales-derived, ungradedBuy $1,820 · TCGPlayer 11% below fair value+12 pts Sales accelerating+11 pts Low active inventory+9 pts eBay active eBay sold TCGplayer active	$2,037	$1,820	10.7%	9.8%	1	46
Evolving Skies Booster BoxEvolving SkiesSimulated 14% below fair value+16 pts High valuation confidence+7 pts High listing quality (sealed)+6 pts eBay active eBay sold TCGplayer active	$10,625	$9,188	13.5%	18.9%	9	37
Sylveon VMAX (Alt Art)Evolving SkiesPSA 10Live-anchoredReal askas of Jun 4 · 56d oldsold-comp center2nd source (tcgcsv): $384 · sales-derived, ungradedView $450 · TCGPlayer Low active inventory+9 pts Sales accelerating+8 pts High listing quality (graded)+6 pts eBay active eBay sold TCGplayer active	$693	$774	-11.6%	0.3%	1	37
RaichuEvolving SkiesSimulated Reputable seller+6 pts High valuation confidence+6 pts High listing quality (near mint)+6 pts eBay active eBay sold TCGplayer active	$83.07	$86.68	-4.3%	7.5%	7	27
LilligantEvolving SkiesSimulated Price up 31% over 30 days+8 pts Sales accelerating+6 pts High listing quality (near mint)+6 pts eBay active eBay sold TCGplayer active	$75.38	$80.39	-6.6%	30.7%	9	30
RegielekiEvolving SkiesSimulated 17% below fair value+20 pts High valuation confidence+7 pts Reputable seller+6 pts eBay active eBay sold TCGplayer active	$69.06	$57.36	16.9%	7.8%	16	42