Sylveon VMAX (Alt Art)

PSA 10Live

Sylveon VMAX (Alt Art) · Evolving Skies · Alt Art · 212/203

Character: Sylveon

high confidencebullish8530d 14.7%

Estimated Fair Value

$727

PSA 10 fair value pinned to the graded sold-comp center for this exact variant at $660, as-of 2026-05-30 [Evolving Skies Sylveon VMAX alt art 212/203 PSA 10 — sold center ~$660-690 (SCI last sale $721 / 14-day avg $735 May 29 2026; PriceCharting graded-10 $605). Raw LP ~$385-420. CYCLE-11 IMPROVE re-audit SUPPORTED (leaning upper half $660-700).] — a real recent SALE center, not a guide/ask price. Live ungraded reference $384.07 (implied grade premium ×1.7). Comparable sales below remain modeled structure around that real graded level. Real market data ingested from pokemontcg.io — point-in-time snapshot as-of 2026-06-04 (captured 2026-06-04), not a live quote.

Graded-equivalent ask $774 USD

Lowest ask: real ungraded market ask $449.98 USD mapped to this graded asset's level (×1.7 → $773.97 USD). Because the same premium scales both the fair value and the ask, this is the real UNGRADED market discount — not a graded-sale discount. Comparable sales below remain modeled structure. The lowest ask is about 7% above the anchored fair value. Real market data ingested from pokemontcg.io — point-in-time snapshot as-of 2026-06-04 (captured 2026-06-04), not a live quote.

2nd source (tcgcsv): $384 · sales-derived, ungraded · tcgcsv.com · as of Jun 4

View ungraded listing — $450 USD on TCGPlayer

Source: pokemontcg.io · as of Jun 4 · point-in-time snapshot, not a live quote · 55d old

Search live listings:eBay active eBay sold TCGplayer active

Bear Case

$622

Base Case

$727

Bull Case

$834

Price History

Dec 8Range $416 – $662Jun 5

Opportunity Score

Sales accelerating+9 pts
Low active inventory+9 pts
High listing quality (graded)+6 pts
Price up 15% over 30 days+6 pts
High valuation confidence+6 pts
Population growth slowing+4 pts
Strong demand (8 sales/mo)+2 pts

Investment Thesis

bullish85

Sylveon VMAX (Alt Art) (PSA 10) is currently fairly valued, with rising price momentum over the last 30 days (+14.7%). Estimated fair value is $726 against a lowest active listing of $774. Fair value is pinned to the real graded sold-comp center for this exact variant (a recent-sales center, not a guide or ask price), using a live ungraded reference from pokemontcg.io. PSA 10 fair value pinned to the graded sold-comp center for this exact variant at $660, as-of 2026-05-30 [Evolving Skies Sylveon VMAX alt art 212/203 PSA 10 — sold center ~$660-690 (SCI last sale $721 / 14-day avg $735 May 29 2026; PriceCharting graded-10 $605). Raw LP ~$385-420. CYCLE-11 IMPROVE re-audit SUPPORTED (leaning upper half $660-700).] — a real recent SALE center, not a guide/ask price. Live ungraded reference $384.07 (implied grade premium ×1.7). Comparable sales below remain modeled structure around that real graded level. Real market data ingested from pokemontcg.io — point-in-time snapshot as-of 2026-06-04 (captured 2026-06-04), not a live quote. Valuation confidence is high. The comparable sales below remain modeled around that anchor — they are not real recorded sales. The lowest ask traces to a real ungraded market ask, mapped to this graded level at $774 (TCGPlayer); because the premium scales both sides, the -7% discount is the real ungraded market discount, not a graded-sale discount. The listing rows beneath remain modeled structure.

Bullish: rising prices (+14.7% over 30d) with thin liquidity and stable graded supply.

Risk Indicators

Thin liquidity — few active listings, wider spreads likely

Active Listings

Sales / Month

7.5

Velocity Score

38/100

Moderate

Sales Velocity 30d

+22.7%

Total Graded

7,444

Gem Mint

3,878

Population Growth

+2.7%

Slowing

Grading ROI & Population Trend

Is it worth paying to grade this card? A transparent profit model from the real ungraded cost and the audited graded value, plus a read on graded-supply momentum. The cost and odds levers are modeled assumptions you can adjust — not market-price pins.

Grading ROI (model)

-60.4%

Grading not economical

slowing population

Population growth slowing to 1.1%/mo — supply tightening across 6906 graded.

6,906 graded · 49% gem · +1.1%/mo

Raw cost: $450
All-in cost: $479+ $25.00 fee · $4.00 ship
Graded value (per gem): $727
Expected proceeds: $19030% gem → $218 · less 13% fee
Net profit / card: -$289.36
Breakeven graded value: $1,835value needed to break even

Adjust modeled assumptions

Gem-grade rate30%

Grading fee / card$25.00

These are modeled estimates, not market-price pins.

Modeled gem-grade odds: 30% chance of PSA 10 (a modeled probability, not a market price). Non-gem outcomes are valued conservatively at $0.
Modeled grading-service fee: $25.00 per card, plus $4.00 shipping/insurance (modeled service costs, not market prices).
Modeled marketplace sell fee: 13.0% of graded proceeds (a modeled cost, not a market price).
Raw cost and graded value trace to the existing audited references/pins — this panel authors no new market-price value.

Liquidity & Comp Explorer

How easily does this asset trade? Days-to-sell, sell-through rate, the spread between the lowest ask and the recent sold center, and inventory depth — all modeled over this asset's recorded sales and active listings. Explore the sale distribution with a date-range filter and an outlier-trim toggle.

Liquidity & Comp Explorer

Simulated

Days to sell: 1.5dmodeled median sale gap
Sell-through: 94.0%over 90d window
Bid-ask spread: +16.6%lowest ask vs sold avg
Inventory depth: 1active listings
Recent sold avg: $664mean over 90d
Lowest ask: $774cheapest active listing

Comp Explorer

Trim outliers (IQR)

Sold from

Sold to

Min: $576
Median: $664
Mean: $660
Max: $746

Showing 25 of 25 sales

These liquidity signals are modeled deterministically over this asset's existing recorded sales and active listings — they author no new market-price value. Days-to-sell, sell-through and the bid-ask spread are analytical reads over those comps, not a live order book.

How Fair Value Is Built

A transparent, weighted blend of market signals — no black boxes.

Signal	Detail	Reference	Weight
recent sales	Volume-weighted average of recent sold comps	676.97	50%
listing inventory	Average of active listing asking prices	773.97	25%
price trend	Recent historical price trend projection	690.34	25%
population pressure	Adjustment for grading population growth (more supply lowers value)	-1.35	50%
demand momentum	Adjustment for sales velocity momentum (rising demand raises value)	4.53	20%

Active Listings

Price	Marketplace	Condition	Seller	Listed	Ends	Link
$774	TCGPlayer	Graded	0	56d ago	Jan 1	View

Recent Sales

Price	Marketplace	Condition	Sold
$628	eBay	Graded	56d ago
$708	Facebook Marketplace	Graded	57d ago
$664	TCGPlayer	Graded	58d ago
$632	PWCC	Graded	61d ago
$717	Mercari	Graded	63d ago
$688	Facebook Marketplace	Graded	64d ago
$665	Facebook Marketplace	Graded	67d ago
$701	PWCC	Graded	68d ago
$746	TCGPlayer	Graded	69d ago
$644	TCGPlayer	Graded	75d ago
$616	eBay	Graded	77d ago
$710	Mercari	Graded	78d ago

Signal Track Record

Did this asset's own Opportunity Scores precede outperformance? Each row is a past as-of date, scored point-in-time, with the realized benchmark-relative return that followed.

Data Provenance

Which signals on this page are real market data versus modeled by the deterministic engine. The terminal marks every source honestly.

This market snapshot is stale — captured Jun 4 (55d old).

Live ingestion (eBay listings & graded sold-comps) is not configured in this environment, so prices are a real but point-in-time capture, not a live quote.

To enable primary-source graded comps, set GRADED_API_KEY and run make ingest-graded PROVIDER=pokemonapi (free tier).

Reference price: Live
Fair value basis: Live-anchored
Lowest ask (deal): Live
Active listings: Live
Card image: Live
Recent sales: Simulated
Population data: Simulated
Liquidity metrics: Simulated
Liquidity analytics: Simulated
Price history: Simulated

Same character or set.

Asset	Fair Value	Lowest	Discount	30d	Avail	Score
MoonbreonEvolving SkiesPSA 10Live-anchoredReal askas of Jun 4 · 56d oldsold-comp center2nd source (tcgcsv): $2,261 · sales-derived, ungradedBuy $1,820 · TCGPlayer 11% below fair value+13 pts Sales accelerating+10 pts Low active inventory+9 pts eBay active eBay sold TCGplayer active	$2,043	$1,820	10.9%	0.3%	1	51
Rayquaza VMAX (Alt Art)Evolving SkiesPSA 10Live-anchoredReal askas of Jun 4 · 56d oldsold-comp center2nd source (tcgcsv): $983 · sales-derived, ungradedView $850 · TCGPlayer Low active inventory+9 pts High listing quality (graded)+6 pts 5% below fair value+6 pts eBay active eBay sold TCGplayer active	$1,954	$1,861	4.8%	12.9%	1	29
Evolving Skies Booster BoxEvolving SkiesSimulated Price up 29% over 30 days+8 pts High valuation confidence+7 pts High listing quality (sealed)+6 pts eBay active eBay sold TCGplayer active	$11,358	$12,240	-7.8%	28.5%	22	31
Sylveon exPrismatic EvolutionsPSA 10Simulated 10% below fair value+11 pts High valuation confidence+7 pts Population growth slowing+6 pts eBay active eBay sold TCGplayer active	$3,563	$3,222	9.6%	4.0%	21	42
RaichuEvolving SkiesSimulated 15% below fair value+17 pts Sales accelerating+10 pts High valuation confidence+7 pts eBay active eBay sold TCGplayer active	$89.52	$76.30	14.8%	13.5%	14	55
LilligantEvolving SkiesSimulated 20% below fair value+24 pts Sales accelerating+10 pts High valuation confidence+6 pts eBay active eBay sold TCGplayer active	$76.17	$60.76	20.2%	8.1%	5	63