Gengar ex (Special Illustration)
SimulatedGengar ex (Special Illustration) · XY Evolutions · Special Illustration Rare · 84/108
Character: Gengar
Price History
Opportunity Score
40- Sales accelerating+10 pts
- Reputable seller+7 pts
- Low active inventory+7 pts
- High listing quality (near mint)+6 pts
- High valuation confidence+5 pts
- 3% below fair value+4 pts
- Strong demand (5 sales/mo)+2 pts
Investment Thesis
neutral45Gengar ex (Special Illustration) is currently fairly valued, with stable price momentum over the last 30 days (-4.1%). Estimated fair value is $618 against a lowest active listing of $599. Valuation confidence is medium based on 3-plus recent comparable sales.
Neutral: flat 30-day price action with thin liquidity and stable graded supply.
Risk Indicators
- Thin liquidity — few active listings, wider spreads likely
How Fair Value Is Built
A transparent, weighted blend of market signals — no black boxes.
| Signal | Detail | Reference | Weight |
|---|---|---|---|
| recent sales | Volume-weighted average of recent sold comps | 591.09 | 50% |
| listing inventory | Average of active listing asking prices | 603.27 | 25% |
| price trend | Recent historical price trend projection | 567.49 | 25% |
| demand momentum | Adjustment for sales velocity momentum (rising demand raises value) | 5.08 | 20% |
Active Listings
| Price | Marketplace | Condition | Seller | Listed | Ends | Link |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| $646 | TCGPlayer | Near Mint | 82 | 10d ago | Jan 1 | View |
| $673 | Mercari | Near Mint | 79 | 13d ago | Jan 1 | View |
| $697 | eBay | Near Mint | 93 | 9d ago | Jan 1 | View |
| $702 | Facebook Marketplace | Near Mint | 86 | 14d ago | Jan 1 | View |
| $814 | eBay | Near Mint | 80 | 8d ago | Jan 1 | View |
| $829 | eBay | Near Mint | 98 | 16d ago | Jan 1 | View |
| $836 | TCGPlayer | Near Mint | 70 | 23h ago | Jun 2 | View |
Recent Sales
| Price | Marketplace | Condition | Sold |
|---|---|---|---|
| $849 | Mercari | Near Mint | 3d ago |
| $767 | eBay | Near Mint | 4d ago |
| $723 | Mercari | Near Mint | 5d ago |
| $804 | TCGPlayer | Near Mint | 5d ago |
| $829 | Facebook Marketplace | Near Mint | 6d ago |
| $839 | Mercari | Near Mint | 6d ago |
| $757 | PWCC | Near Mint | 12d ago |
| $887 | Mercari | Near Mint | 14d ago |
| $759 | TCGPlayer | Near Mint | 15d ago |
| $769 | TCGPlayer | Near Mint | 20d ago |
| $735 | TCGPlayer | Near Mint | 23d ago |
| $811 | Facebook Marketplace | Near Mint | 24d ago |
Signal Track Record
Did this asset's own Opportunity Scores precede outperformance? Each row is a past as-of date, scored point-in-time, with the realized benchmark-relative return that followed.
Data Provenance
Which signals on this page are real market data versus modeled by the deterministic engine. The terminal marks every source honestly.
- Reference price
- Simulated
- Card image
- Simulated
- Recent sales
- Simulated
- Population data
- Simulated
- Liquidity metrics
- Simulated
- Price history
- Simulated
Related Assets
Same character or set.
| Asset | Fair Value | Lowest | Discount | 30d | Avail | Score |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
Charizard ex (Illustration Rare)XY EvolutionsSimulated
| $673 | $614 | 8.8% | 0.6% | 6 | 34 |
Umbreon Holo RareXY EvolutionsSimulated
| $239 | $197 | 17.4% | 16.2% | 6 | 45 |
Umbreon VMAX (Alt Art)XY EvolutionsBGS 9Simulated
| $1,042 | $949 | 8.9% | 19.1% | 8 | 53 |
Charizard VMAX (Alt Art)XY EvolutionsSimulated
| $1,122 | $909 | 19.0% | 5.8% | 17 | 54 |
Charizard ex (Special Illustration)XY EvolutionsSimulated
| $602 | $620 | -2.9% | 0.8% | 10 | 24 |
Pikachu VMAX (Alt Art)XY EvolutionsPSA 9.5Simulated
| $1,249 | $1,118 | 10.5% | 13.6% | 18 | 47 |