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Gengar ex (Special Illustration)

Simulated

Gengar ex (Special Illustration) · XY Evolutions · Special Illustration Rare · 84/108

Character: Gengar

medium confidenceneutral4530d 4.1%
Estimated Fair Value
$618
Lowest listing $5993.1% below
Bear Case
$533
Base Case
$618
Bull Case
$702

Price History

Dec 2Range $570$832May 30

Opportunity Score

40
  • Sales accelerating+10 pts
  • Reputable seller+7 pts
  • Low active inventory+7 pts
  • High listing quality (near mint)+6 pts
  • High valuation confidence+5 pts
  • 3% below fair value+4 pts
  • Strong demand (5 sales/mo)+2 pts

Investment Thesis

neutral45

Gengar ex (Special Illustration) is currently fairly valued, with stable price momentum over the last 30 days (-4.1%). Estimated fair value is $618 against a lowest active listing of $599. Valuation confidence is medium based on 3-plus recent comparable sales.

Neutral: flat 30-day price action with thin liquidity and stable graded supply.

Risk Indicators

  • Thin liquidity — few active listings, wider spreads likely
Active Listings
3
Sales / Month
5.0
Velocity Score
25/100
Illiquid
Sales Velocity 30d
+25.4%
Confidence
64/100

How Fair Value Is Built

A transparent, weighted blend of market signals — no black boxes.

SignalDetailReferenceWeight
recent salesVolume-weighted average of recent sold comps591.0950%
listing inventoryAverage of active listing asking prices603.2725%
price trendRecent historical price trend projection567.4925%
demand momentumAdjustment for sales velocity momentum (rising demand raises value)5.0820%

Active Listings

PriceMarketplaceConditionSellerListedEndsLink
$646TCGPlayerNear Mint8210d agoJan 1View
$673MercariNear Mint7913d agoJan 1View
$697eBayNear Mint939d agoJan 1View
$702Facebook MarketplaceNear Mint8614d agoJan 1View
$814eBayNear Mint808d agoJan 1View
$829eBayNear Mint9816d agoJan 1View
$836TCGPlayerNear Mint7023h agoJun 2View

Recent Sales

PriceMarketplaceConditionSold
$849MercariNear Mint3d ago
$767eBayNear Mint4d ago
$723MercariNear Mint5d ago
$804TCGPlayerNear Mint5d ago
$829Facebook MarketplaceNear Mint6d ago
$839MercariNear Mint6d ago
$757PWCCNear Mint12d ago
$887MercariNear Mint14d ago
$759TCGPlayerNear Mint15d ago
$769TCGPlayerNear Mint20d ago
$735TCGPlayerNear Mint23d ago
$811Facebook MarketplaceNear Mint24d ago

Signal Track Record

Did this asset's own Opportunity Scores precede outperformance? Each row is a past as-of date, scored point-in-time, with the realized benchmark-relative return that followed.

Data Provenance

Which signals on this page are real market data versus modeled by the deterministic engine. The terminal marks every source honestly.

Reference price
Simulated
Card image
Simulated
Recent sales
Simulated
Population data
Simulated
Liquidity metrics
Simulated
Price history
Simulated

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