PokéAlpha
Live data not configuredNumbers are backed by a real but dated snapshot. Enable real marketplace listings for live intelligence.How to enable
Back to dashboard
Lilligant — Evolving Skies — Rare

Lilligant

Simulated

Lilligant · Evolving Skies · Rare · 10

Character: Lilligant

high confidencebullish8830d 17.0%
Estimated Fair Value
$77.23
Lowest listing $71.397.6% below
Search live listings:eBay activeeBay soldTCGplayer active
Bear Case
$63.93
Base Case
$77.23
Bull Case
$90.91

Price History

Dec 8Range $65.29 – $98.09Jun 5

Opportunity Score

37
  • 8% below fair value+9 pts
  • Reputable seller+7 pts
  • Price up 17% over 30 days+7 pts
  • High listing quality (near mint)+6 pts
  • High valuation confidence+5 pts
  • Sales accelerating+2 pts
  • Strong demand (4 sales/mo)+1 pts

Investment Thesis

bullish88

Lilligant is currently modestly undervalued, with rising price momentum over the last 30 days (+17.0%). Estimated fair value is $77 against a lowest active listing of $71. Valuation confidence is high based on 15-plus modeled comparable sales.

Bullish: rising prices (+17.0% over 30d) with thin liquidity and stable graded supply.

Active Listings
15
Sales / Month
4.5
Velocity Score
23/100
Illiquid
Sales Velocity 30d
+4.0%
Confidence
71/100

Grading ROI & Population Trend

Is it worth paying to grade this card? A transparent profit model from the real ungraded cost and the audited graded value, plus a read on graded-supply momentum. The cost and odds levers are modeled assumptions you can adjust — not market-price pins.

Grading ROI (model)
-25.8%
Grading not economical
unknown population

No population data reported for this asset.

Raw cost
$71.39
All-in cost
$100+ $25.00 fee · $4.00 ship
Graded value (per gem)
$286
Expected proceeds
$74.5330% gem → $85.67 · less 13% fee
Net profit / card
-$25.86
Breakeven graded value
$385value needed to break even

Adjust modeled assumptions

These are modeled estimates, not market-price pins.

  • Modeled gem-grade odds: 30% chance of PSA 10 (a modeled probability, not a market price). Non-gem outcomes are valued conservatively at $0.
  • Modeled grading-service fee: $25.00 per card, plus $4.00 shipping/insurance (modeled service costs, not market prices).
  • Modeled marketplace sell fee: 13.0% of graded proceeds (a modeled cost, not a market price).
  • Raw cost and graded value trace to the existing audited references/pins — this panel authors no new market-price value.

Liquidity & Comp Explorer

How easily does this asset trade? Days-to-sell, sell-through rate, the spread between the lowest ask and the recent sold center, and inventory depth — all modeled over this asset's recorded sales and active listings. Explore the sale distribution with a date-range filter and an outlier-trim toggle.

Liquidity & Comp Explorer

Simulated
Days to sell
1.2dmodeled median sale gap
Sell-through
64.0%over 90d window
Bid-ask spread
-22.6%lowest ask vs sold avg
Inventory depth
12active listings
Recent sold avg
$91.69mean over 90d
Lowest ask
$70.93cheapest active listing

Comp Explorer

Min
$70.70
Median
$85.18
Mean
$86.63
Max
$103

Showing 39 of 39 sales

These liquidity signals are modeled deterministically over this asset's existing recorded sales and active listings — they author no new market-price value. Days-to-sell, sell-through and the bid-ask spread are analytical reads over those comps, not a live order book.

How Fair Value Is Built

A transparent, weighted blend of market signals — no black boxes.

SignalDetailReferenceWeight
recent salesVolume-weighted average of recent sold comps71.4950%
listing inventoryAverage of active listing asking prices81.4325%
price trendRecent historical price trend projection82.0525%
demand momentumAdjustment for sales velocity momentum (rising demand raises value)0.7920%

Active Listings

PriceMarketplaceConditionSellerListedEndsLink
$70.93eBayNear Mint8655d agoJan 1View
$71.31MercariNear Mint7559d agoJan 1View
$71.74Facebook MarketplaceNear Mint8666d agoJan 1View
$74.17PWCCNear Mint7959d agoJan 1View
$75.19TCGPlayerNear Mint8269d agoJun 7View
$78.10eBayNear Mint6071d agoJan 1View
$80.13Facebook MarketplaceNear Mint9764d agoJan 1View
$84.13MercariNear Mint7365d agoJan 1View
$85.20TCGPlayerNear Mint8675d agoJan 1View
$88.04PWCCNear Mint7468d agoJan 1View
$89.55TCGPlayerNear Mint9261d agoJun 7View
$93.04TCGPlayerNear Mint9070d agoJan 1View

Recent Sales

PriceMarketplaceConditionSold
$79.85PWCCNear Mint54d ago
$81.82PWCCNear Mint54d ago
$82.59PWCCNear Mint56d ago
$80.55Facebook MarketplaceNear Mint59d ago
$88.34PWCCNear Mint61d ago
$88.36MercariNear Mint61d ago
$86.92TCGPlayerNear Mint64d ago
$99.09Facebook MarketplaceNear Mint66d ago
$94.10eBayNear Mint66d ago
$92.43eBayNear Mint71d ago
$98.19eBayNear Mint72d ago
$103MercariNear Mint73d ago

Signal Track Record

Did this asset's own Opportunity Scores precede outperformance? Each row is a past as-of date, scored point-in-time, with the realized benchmark-relative return that followed.

Data Provenance

Which signals on this page are real market data versus modeled by the deterministic engine. The terminal marks every source honestly.

Reference price
Simulated
Fair value basis
Simulated
Lowest ask (deal)
Simulated
Active listings
Simulated
Card image
Live
Recent sales
Simulated
Population data
Simulated
Liquidity metrics
Simulated
Liquidity analytics
Simulated
Price history
Simulated

Related Assets

Same character or set.

AssetFair ValueLowestDiscount30dAvailScore
Moonbreon — Evolving Skies — Alt Art
MoonbreonEvolving SkiesPSA 10Live-anchoredReal askas of Jun 4 · 56d oldsold-comp center2nd source (tcgcsv): $2,261 · sales-derived, ungradedBuy $1,820 · TCGPlayer
  • Low active inventory+9 pts
  • High listing quality (graded)+6 pts
  • High valuation confidence+6 pts
eBay activeeBay soldTCGplayer active
$1,880$1,8203.2%0.6%129
Rayquaza VMAX (Alt Art) — Evolving Skies — Alt Art
Rayquaza VMAX (Alt Art)Evolving SkiesPSA 10Live-anchoredReal askas of Jun 4 · 56d oldsold-comp center2nd source (tcgcsv): $983 · sales-derived, ungradedView $850 · TCGPlayer
  • 8% below fair value+10 pts
  • Low active inventory+9 pts
  • High listing quality (graded)+6 pts
eBay activeeBay soldTCGplayer active
$2,029$1,8618.3%10.7%135
Evolving Skies Booster Box — Evolving Skies — Sealed
Evolving Skies Booster BoxEvolving SkiesSimulated
  • Sales accelerating+10 pts
  • 6% below fair value+7 pts
  • High listing quality (sealed)+6 pts
eBay activeeBay soldTCGplayer active
$12,066$11,3486.0%11.1%838
Sylveon VMAX (Alt Art) — Evolving Skies — Alt Art
Sylveon VMAX (Alt Art)Evolving SkiesPSA 10Live-anchoredReal askas of Jun 4 · 56d oldsold-comp center2nd source (tcgcsv): $384 · sales-derived, ungradedView $450 · TCGPlayer
  • Low active inventory+9 pts
  • Price up 29% over 30 days+8 pts
  • High listing quality (graded)+6 pts
eBay activeeBay soldTCGplayer active
$669$774-15.7%28.7%136
Raichu — Evolving Skies — Rare Holo
RaichuEvolving SkiesSimulated
  • 15% below fair value+18 pts
  • Sales accelerating+11 pts
  • Low active inventory+6 pts
eBay activeeBay soldTCGplayer active
$89.32$75.7715.2%10.1%459
Regieleki — Evolving Skies — Rare Holo
RegielekiEvolving SkiesSimulated
  • Reputable seller+7 pts
  • High valuation confidence+7 pts
  • High listing quality (near mint)+6 pts
eBay activeeBay soldTCGplayer active
$75.32$71.794.7%10.6%1735