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Raichu — Evolving Skies — Rare Holo

Raichu

Simulated

Raichu · Evolving Skies · Rare Holo · 50

Character: Raichu

high confidencebullish9130d 15.9%
Estimated Fair Value
$89.95
Lowest listing $77.0114.4% below
Search live listings:eBay activeeBay soldTCGplayer active
Bear Case
$76.64
Base Case
$89.95
Bull Case
$103

Price History

Dec 8Range $53.18 – $80.72Jun 5

Opportunity Score

57
  • 14% below fair value+17 pts
  • Sales accelerating+11 pts
  • Reputable seller+7 pts
  • High valuation confidence+7 pts
  • Price up 16% over 30 days+6 pts
  • High listing quality (near mint)+6 pts
  • Strong demand (8 sales/mo)+3 pts

Investment Thesis

bullish91

Raichu is currently modestly undervalued, with rising price momentum over the last 30 days (+15.9%). Estimated fair value is $90 against a lowest active listing of $77. Valuation confidence is high based on 13-plus modeled comparable sales.

Bullish: rising prices (+15.9% over 30d) with thin liquidity and stable graded supply.

Active Listings
13
Sales / Month
8.5
Velocity Score
43/100
Moderate
Sales Velocity 30d
+26.2%
Confidence
97/100

Grading ROI & Population Trend

Is it worth paying to grade this card? A transparent profit model from the real ungraded cost and the audited graded value, plus a read on graded-supply momentum. The cost and odds levers are modeled assumptions you can adjust — not market-price pins.

Grading ROI (model)
-24.2%
Grading not economical
unknown population

No population data reported for this asset.

Raw cost
$77.01
All-in cost
$106+ $25.00 fee · $4.00 ship
Graded value (per gem)
$308
Expected proceeds
$80.4030% gem → $92.41 · less 13% fee
Net profit / card
-$25.61
Breakeven graded value
$406value needed to break even

Adjust modeled assumptions

These are modeled estimates, not market-price pins.

  • Modeled gem-grade odds: 30% chance of PSA 10 (a modeled probability, not a market price). Non-gem outcomes are valued conservatively at $0.
  • Modeled grading-service fee: $25.00 per card, plus $4.00 shipping/insurance (modeled service costs, not market prices).
  • Modeled marketplace sell fee: 13.0% of graded proceeds (a modeled cost, not a market price).
  • Raw cost and graded value trace to the existing audited references/pins — this panel authors no new market-price value.

Liquidity & Comp Explorer

How easily does this asset trade? Days-to-sell, sell-through rate, the spread between the lowest ask and the recent sold center, and inventory depth — all modeled over this asset's recorded sales and active listings. Explore the sale distribution with a date-range filter and an outlier-trim toggle.

Liquidity & Comp Explorer

Simulated
Days to sell
3.2dmodeled median sale gap
Sell-through
62.0%over 90d window
Bid-ask spread
-11.2%lowest ask vs sold avg
Inventory depth
8active listings
Recent sold avg
$61.62mean over 90d
Lowest ask
$54.73cheapest active listing

Comp Explorer

Min
$53.37
Median
$64.11
Mean
$66.08
Max
$83.63

Showing 22 of 22 sales

These liquidity signals are modeled deterministically over this asset's existing recorded sales and active listings — they author no new market-price value. Days-to-sell, sell-through and the bid-ask spread are analytical reads over those comps, not a live order book.

How Fair Value Is Built

A transparent, weighted blend of market signals — no black boxes.

SignalDetailReferenceWeight
recent salesVolume-weighted average of recent sold comps82.1150%
listing inventoryAverage of active listing asking prices89.1125%
price trendRecent historical price trend projection88.5625%
demand momentumAdjustment for sales velocity momentum (rising demand raises value)5.2420%

Active Listings

PriceMarketplaceConditionSellerListedEndsLink
$54.73eBayNear Mint7657d agoJan 1View
$57.20PWCCNear Mint7467d agoJan 1View
$61.14PWCCNear Mint6172d agoJan 1View
$63.27TCGPlayerNear Mint8767d agoJun 9View
$67.73PWCCNear Mint7161d agoJan 1View
$67.79PWCCNear Mint10055d agoJan 1View
$69.05TCGPlayerNear Mint7874d agoJan 1View
$70.68TCGPlayerNear Mint9858d agoJan 1View

Recent Sales

PriceMarketplaceConditionSold
$60.17MercariNear Mint56d ago
$56.96MercariNear Mint60d ago
$53.37eBayNear Mint64d ago
$60.11Facebook MarketplaceNear Mint71d ago
$62.22MercariNear Mint71d ago
$63.68eBayNear Mint72d ago
$61.04eBayNear Mint75d ago
$65.79MercariNear Mint76d ago
$64.51Facebook MarketplaceNear Mint76d ago
$62.75PWCCNear Mint79d ago
$63.70MercariNear Mint85d ago
$55.99MercariNear Mint85d ago

Signal Track Record

Did this asset's own Opportunity Scores precede outperformance? Each row is a past as-of date, scored point-in-time, with the realized benchmark-relative return that followed.

Data Provenance

Which signals on this page are real market data versus modeled by the deterministic engine. The terminal marks every source honestly.

Reference price
Simulated
Fair value basis
Simulated
Lowest ask (deal)
Simulated
Active listings
Simulated
Card image
Live
Recent sales
Simulated
Population data
Simulated
Liquidity metrics
Simulated
Liquidity analytics
Simulated
Price history
Simulated

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