Mewtwo-EX
SimulatedMewtwo-EX · XY Evolutions · Rare Holo EX · 52
Character: Mewtwo
Price History
Opportunity Score
59- 24% below fair value+28 pts
- Reputable seller+8 pts
- Sales accelerating+8 pts
- High valuation confidence+7 pts
- High listing quality (near mint)+6 pts
- Strong demand (8 sales/mo)+3 pts
Investment Thesis
bearish29Mewtwo-EX is currently trading at a meaningful discount to fair value, with softening price momentum over the last 30 days (-12.7%). Estimated fair value is $2784 against a lowest active listing of $2105. Valuation confidence is high based on 15-plus modeled comparable sales.
Bearish: softening prices (-12.7% over 30d) amid thin liquidity and stable graded supply.
Risk Indicators
- Negative price momentum over the last 30 days
Grading ROI & Population Trend
Is it worth paying to grade this card? A transparent profit model from the real ungraded cost and the audited graded value, plus a read on graded-supply momentum. The cost and odds levers are modeled assumptions you can adjust — not market-price pins.
No population data reported for this asset.
- Raw cost
- $2,105
- All-in cost
- $2,134+ $25.00 fee · $4.00 ship
- Graded value (per gem)
- $8,421
- Expected proceeds
- $2,19830% gem → $2,526 · less 13% fee
- Net profit / card
- $63.63
- Breakeven graded value
- $8,177value needed to break even
Adjust modeled assumptions
These are modeled estimates, not market-price pins.
- Modeled gem-grade odds: 30% chance of PSA 10 (a modeled probability, not a market price). Non-gem outcomes are valued conservatively at $0.
- Modeled grading-service fee: $25.00 per card, plus $4.00 shipping/insurance (modeled service costs, not market prices).
- Modeled marketplace sell fee: 13.0% of graded proceeds (a modeled cost, not a market price).
- Raw cost and graded value trace to the existing audited references/pins — this panel authors no new market-price value.
Liquidity & Comp Explorer
How easily does this asset trade? Days-to-sell, sell-through rate, the spread between the lowest ask and the recent sold center, and inventory depth — all modeled over this asset's recorded sales and active listings. Explore the sale distribution with a date-range filter and an outlier-trim toggle.
Liquidity & Comp Explorer
- Days to sell
- 1.4dmodeled median sale gap
- Sell-through
- 57.0%over 90d window
- Bid-ask spread
- -4.5%lowest ask vs sold avg
- Inventory depth
- 13active listings
- Recent sold avg
- $195mean over 90d
- Lowest ask
- $187cheapest active listing
Comp Explorer
- Min
- $163
- Median
- $190
- Mean
- $189
- Max
- $210
Showing 24 of 29 sales · 5 outliers trimmed
These liquidity signals are modeled deterministically over this asset's existing recorded sales and active listings — they author no new market-price value. Days-to-sell, sell-through and the bid-ask spread are analytical reads over those comps, not a live order book.
How Fair Value Is Built
A transparent, weighted blend of market signals — no black boxes.
| Signal | Detail | Reference | Weight |
|---|---|---|---|
| recent sales | Volume-weighted average of recent sold comps | 2831.93 | 50% |
| listing inventory | Average of active listing asking prices | 2411.64 | 25% |
| price trend | Recent historical price trend projection | 2652.56 | 25% |
| demand momentum | Adjustment for sales velocity momentum (rising demand raises value) | 3.81 | 20% |
Active Listings
| Price | Marketplace | Condition | Seller | Listed | Ends | Link |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| $187 | Facebook Marketplace | Near Mint | 74 | 62d ago | Jan 1 | View |
| $189 | Facebook Marketplace | Near Mint | 93 | 62d ago | Jan 1 | View |
| $190 | Facebook Marketplace | Near Mint | 74 | 73d ago | Jan 1 | View |
| $192 | eBay | Near Mint | 82 | 58d ago | Jan 1 | View |
| $200 | Facebook Marketplace | Near Mint | 88 | 62d ago | Jan 1 | View |
| $210 | Mercari | Near Mint | 100 | 64d ago | Jan 1 | View |
| $211 | PWCC | Near Mint | 96 | 72d ago | Jan 1 | View |
| $220 | Facebook Marketplace | Near Mint | 70 | 57d ago | Jan 1 | View |
| $223 | Mercari | Near Mint | 82 | 56d ago | Jun 6 | View |
| $231 | PWCC | Near Mint | 65 | 70d ago | Jan 1 | View |
| $232 | Mercari | Near Mint | 61 | 57d ago | Jan 1 | View |
| $232 | eBay | Near Mint | 94 | 62d ago | Jun 8 | View |
Recent Sales
| Price | Marketplace | Condition | Sold |
|---|---|---|---|
| $189 | Mercari | Near Mint | 55d ago |
| $208 | Facebook Marketplace | Near Mint | 57d ago |
| $194 | Mercari | Near Mint | 58d ago |
| $210 | Facebook Marketplace | Near Mint | 59d ago |
| $237 | Mercari | Near Mint | 63d ago |
| $202 | Mercari | Near Mint | 64d ago |
| $198 | TCGPlayer | Near Mint | 69d ago |
| $199 | eBay | Near Mint | 70d ago |
| $189 | Mercari | Near Mint | 76d ago |
| $193 | TCGPlayer | Near Mint | 78d ago |
| $183 | Mercari | Near Mint | 79d ago |
| $184 | Mercari | Near Mint | 83d ago |
Signal Track Record
Did this asset's own Opportunity Scores precede outperformance? Each row is a past as-of date, scored point-in-time, with the realized benchmark-relative return that followed.
Data Provenance
Which signals on this page are real market data versus modeled by the deterministic engine. The terminal marks every source honestly.
- Reference price
- Simulated
- Fair value basis
- Simulated
- Lowest ask (deal)
- Simulated
- Active listings
- Simulated
- Card image
- Live
- Recent sales
- Simulated
- Population data
- Simulated
- Liquidity metrics
- Simulated
- Liquidity analytics
- Simulated
- Price history
- Simulated
Related Assets
Same character or set.
| Asset | Fair Value | Lowest | Discount | 30d | Avail | Score |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
 CharizardXY EvolutionsBGS 9.5Simulated
| $65,356 | $60,175 | 7.9% | 11.4% | 10 | 45 |
 Mewtwo (Base)Base SetPSA 9Live-anchoredReal askas of Jun 4 · 56d oldsold-comp center2nd source (tcgcsv): $77.61 · sales-derived, ungradedView $32.99 · TCGPlayer
| $154 | $74.23 | 51.7% | 39.1% | 1 | 68 |
 MewtwoXY EvolutionsSimulated
| $2,260 | $1,814 | 19.7% | 19.0% | 7 | 57 |
Mewtwo-EXXY EvolutionsBGS 9.5Simulated
| $3,311 | $2,988 | 9.8% | 10.0% | 8 | 44 |
 Blastoise-EXXY EvolutionsSimulated
| $1,308 | $1,100 | 15.9% | 4.9% | 14 | 50 |
Blastoise-EXXY EvolutionsSimulated
| $324 | $291 | 10.1% | 12.5% | 14 | 42 |