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Greninja Ultra Rare

Simulated

Greninja Ultra Rare · Hidden Fates · Ultra Rare · 123/163

Character: Greninja

high confidenceneutral6030d 1.3%
Estimated Fair Value
$124
Lowest listing $1221.2% below
Bear Case
$106
Base Case
$124
Bull Case
$142

Price History

Dec 2Range $137$214May 30

Opportunity Score

28
  • Reputable seller+7 pts
  • High valuation confidence+6 pts
  • High listing quality (near mint)+6 pts
  • Low active inventory+5 pts
  • Strong demand (10 sales/mo)+3 pts
  • 1% below fair value+1 pts

Investment Thesis

neutral60

Greninja Ultra Rare is currently fairly valued, with stable price momentum over the last 30 days (+1.3%). Estimated fair value is $124 against a lowest active listing of $122. Valuation confidence is high based on 5-plus recent comparable sales.

Neutral: flat 30-day price action with thin liquidity and stable graded supply.

Active Listings
5
Sales / Month
9.5
Velocity Score
48/100
Moderate
Sales Velocity 30d
-9.8%
Confidence
87/100

How Fair Value Is Built

A transparent, weighted blend of market signals — no black boxes.

SignalDetailReferenceWeight
recent salesVolume-weighted average of recent sold comps125.0350%
listing inventoryAverage of active listing asking prices128.4825%
price trendRecent historical price trend projection126.525%
demand momentumAdjustment for sales velocity momentum (rising demand raises value)-1.9720%

Active Listings

PriceMarketplaceConditionSellerListedEndsLink
$144eBayNear Mint8320d agoJan 1View
$149eBayNear Mint888d agoJan 1View
$154eBayNear Mint8213d agoJan 1View
$155Facebook MarketplaceNear Mint958d agoJan 1View
$156PWCCNear Mint639d agoJan 1View
$156MercariNear Mint702d agoJan 1View
$156Facebook MarketplaceNear Mint941d agoJun 2View
$160eBayNear Mint6818d agoJan 1View
$161eBayNear Mint7711d agoJan 1View
$164MercariNear Mint948d agoJan 1View
$171PWCCNear Mint911d agoJan 1View
$171PWCCNear Mint6611d agoJan 1View

Recent Sales

PriceMarketplaceConditionSold
$170MercariNear Mint11h ago
$145MercariNear Mint12d ago
$164PWCCNear Mint13d ago
$145PWCCNear Mint17d ago
$145MercariNear Mint21d ago
$168Facebook MarketplaceNear Mint23d ago
$155eBayNear Mint25d ago
$141TCGPlayerNear Mint26d ago
$144Facebook MarketplaceNear Mint31d ago
$146TCGPlayerNear Mint32d ago
$155PWCCNear Mint33d ago
$160PWCCNear Mint40d ago

Signal Track Record

Did this asset's own Opportunity Scores precede outperformance? Each row is a past as-of date, scored point-in-time, with the realized benchmark-relative return that followed.

Data Provenance

Which signals on this page are real market data versus modeled by the deterministic engine. The terminal marks every source honestly.

Reference price
Simulated
Card image
Simulated
Recent sales
Simulated
Population data
Simulated
Liquidity metrics
Simulated
Price history
Simulated

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