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Sylveon ex — Prismatic Evolutions — Double Rare

Sylveon ex

PSA 10Simulated

Sylveon ex · Prismatic Evolutions · Double Rare · 41

Character: Sylveon

high confidencebullish8230d 12.0%
Estimated Fair Value
$3,630
Lowest listing $3,4295.5% below
Search live listings:eBay activeeBay soldTCGplayer active
Bear Case
$3,028
Base Case
$3,630
Bull Case
$4,230

Price History

Dec 8Range $291 – $411Jun 5

Opportunity Score

40
  • High valuation confidence+7 pts
  • 6% below fair value+6 pts
  • Reputable seller+6 pts
  • High listing quality (graded)+6 pts
  • Strong demand (18 sales/mo)+5 pts
  • Sales accelerating+5 pts
  • Price up 12% over 30 days+5 pts

Investment Thesis

bullish82

Sylveon ex (PSA 10) is currently modestly undervalued, with rising price momentum over the last 30 days (+12.0%). Estimated fair value is $3630 against a lowest active listing of $3429. Valuation confidence is high based on 17-plus modeled comparable sales.

Bullish: rising prices (+12.0% over 30d) with healthy trading velocity and rising graded population (6.7%/mo).

Risk Indicators

  • Rising graded population may pressure prices
Active Listings
17
Sales / Month
17.5
Velocity Score
88/100
Fast-moving
Sales Velocity 30d
+12.6%
Total Graded
3,348
Gem Mint
733
Population Growth
+6.7%
Rising — supply pressure

Grading ROI & Population Trend

Is it worth paying to grade this card? A transparent profit model from the real ungraded cost and the audited graded value, plus a read on graded-supply momentum. The cost and odds levers are modeled assumptions you can adjust — not market-price pins.

Grading ROI (model)
-72.6%
Grading not economical
accelerating population

Population growing 5.4%/mo — supply expanding quickly across 3485 graded.

3,485 graded · 48% gem · +5.4%/mo

Raw cost
$3,429
All-in cost
$3,458+ $25.00 fee · $4.00 ship
Graded value (per gem)
$3,630
Expected proceeds
$94730% gem → $1,089 · less 13% fee
Net profit / card
-$2,511.02
Breakeven graded value
$13,251value needed to break even

Adjust modeled assumptions

These are modeled estimates, not market-price pins.

  • Modeled gem-grade odds: 30% chance of PSA 10 (a modeled probability, not a market price). Non-gem outcomes are valued conservatively at $0.
  • Modeled grading-service fee: $25.00 per card, plus $4.00 shipping/insurance (modeled service costs, not market prices).
  • Modeled marketplace sell fee: 13.0% of graded proceeds (a modeled cost, not a market price).
  • Raw cost and graded value trace to the existing audited references/pins — this panel authors no new market-price value.

Liquidity & Comp Explorer

How easily does this asset trade? Days-to-sell, sell-through rate, the spread between the lowest ask and the recent sold center, and inventory depth — all modeled over this asset's recorded sales and active listings. Explore the sale distribution with a date-range filter and an outlier-trim toggle.

Liquidity & Comp Explorer

Simulated
Days to sell
3.0dmodeled median sale gap
Sell-through
52.0%over 90d window
Bid-ask spread
-23.1%lowest ask vs sold avg
Inventory depth
10active listings
Recent sold avg
$365mean over 90d
Lowest ask
$280cheapest active listing

Comp Explorer

Min
$293
Median
$384
Mean
$374
Max
$428

Showing 24 of 24 sales

These liquidity signals are modeled deterministically over this asset's existing recorded sales and active listings — they author no new market-price value. Days-to-sell, sell-through and the bid-ask spread are analytical reads over those comps, not a live order book.

How Fair Value Is Built

A transparent, weighted blend of market signals — no black boxes.

SignalDetailReferenceWeight
recent salesVolume-weighted average of recent sold comps3574.450%
listing inventoryAverage of active listing asking prices3911.0425%
price trendRecent historical price trend projection3591.6225%
population pressureAdjustment for grading population growth (more supply lowers value)-3.3450%
demand momentumAdjustment for sales velocity momentum (rising demand raises value)2.5220%

Active Listings

PriceMarketplaceConditionSellerListedEndsLink
$280PWCCGraded9658d agoJan 1View
$290eBayGraded6666d agoJun 9View
$295eBayGraded8262d agoJan 1View
$302Facebook MarketplaceGraded6670d agoJan 1View
$313eBayGraded6855d agoJan 1View
$314TCGPlayerGraded7957d agoJan 1View
$332eBayGraded9164d agoJan 1View
$335PWCCGraded8773d agoJun 7View
$342MercariGraded7870d agoJan 1View
$349TCGPlayerGraded8268d agoJan 1View

Recent Sales

PriceMarketplaceConditionSold
$293eBayGraded58d ago
$319TCGPlayerGraded58d ago
$326TCGPlayerGraded62d ago
$313TCGPlayerGraded66d ago
$383eBayGraded73d ago
$417Facebook MarketplaceGraded78d ago
$411TCGPlayerGraded84d ago
$405TCGPlayerGraded86d ago
$354TCGPlayerGraded87d ago
$405eBayGraded89d ago
$384TCGPlayerGraded90d ago
$354MercariGraded96d ago

Signal Track Record

Did this asset's own Opportunity Scores precede outperformance? Each row is a past as-of date, scored point-in-time, with the realized benchmark-relative return that followed.

Data Provenance

Which signals on this page are real market data versus modeled by the deterministic engine. The terminal marks every source honestly.

Reference price
Simulated
Fair value basis
Simulated
Lowest ask (deal)
Simulated
Active listings
Simulated
Card image
Live
Recent sales
Simulated
Population data
Simulated
Liquidity metrics
Simulated
Liquidity analytics
Simulated
Price history
Simulated

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