Glaceon VMAX (Secret Rare)

PSA 10Live

Glaceon VMAX (Secret Rare) · Evolving Skies · Secret Rare · 208/203

Character: Glaceon

medium confidencebearish1830d 12.5%

Estimated Fair Value

$101

PSA 10 fair value pinned to the graded sold-comp center for this exact variant at $100, as-of 2026-05-30 [Evolving Skies Glaceon VMAX rainbow secret rare 208/203 PSA 10 — sold center ~$100-105 (SCI last sale $108 / 14-day avg $103, May 28 2026; older PSA APR $39-83 Dec2024-Jan2025 pre-appreciation). #209 alt art ($300+) excluded. Raw NM ~$35. CYCLE-11 IMPROVE re-audit SUPPORTED.] — a real recent SALE center, not a guide/ask price. Live ungraded reference $37.68 (implied grade premium ×2.6). Comparable sales below remain modeled structure around that real graded level. Real market data ingested from pokemontcg.io — point-in-time snapshot as-of 2026-06-04 (captured 2026-06-04), not a live quote.

Graded-equivalent ask $101 USD0.7% below

Lowest ask: real ungraded market ask $38.00 USD mapped to this graded asset's level (×2.6 → $100.70 USD). Because the same premium scales both the fair value and the ask, this is the real UNGRADED market discount — not a graded-sale discount. Comparable sales below remain modeled structure. The lowest ask is about 1% below the anchored fair value. Real market data ingested from pokemontcg.io — point-in-time snapshot as-of 2026-06-04 (captured 2026-06-04), not a live quote.

2nd source (tcgcsv): $37.60 · sales-derived, ungraded · tcgcsv.com · as of Jun 4

View ungraded listing — $38.00 USD on TCGPlayer

Source: pokemontcg.io · as of Jun 4 · point-in-time snapshot, not a live quote · 55d old

Search live listings:eBay active eBay sold TCGplayer active

Bear Case

$86.13

Base Case

$101

Bull Case

$116

Price History

Dec 8Range $78.13 – $125Jun 5

Opportunity Score

Low active inventory+9 pts
High listing quality (graded)+6 pts
High valuation confidence+3 pts
Strong demand (4 sales/mo)+1 pts

Investment Thesis

bearish18

Glaceon VMAX (Secret Rare) (PSA 10) is currently fairly valued, with softening price momentum over the last 30 days (-12.5%). Estimated fair value is $101 against a lowest active listing of $101. Fair value is pinned to the real graded sold-comp center for this exact variant (a recent-sales center, not a guide or ask price), using a live ungraded reference from pokemontcg.io. PSA 10 fair value pinned to the graded sold-comp center for this exact variant at $100, as-of 2026-05-30 [Evolving Skies Glaceon VMAX rainbow secret rare 208/203 PSA 10 — sold center ~$100-105 (SCI last sale $108 / 14-day avg $103, May 28 2026; older PSA APR $39-83 Dec2024-Jan2025 pre-appreciation). #209 alt art ($300+) excluded. Raw NM ~$35. CYCLE-11 IMPROVE re-audit SUPPORTED.] — a real recent SALE center, not a guide/ask price. Live ungraded reference $37.68 (implied grade premium ×2.6). Comparable sales below remain modeled structure around that real graded level. Real market data ingested from pokemontcg.io — point-in-time snapshot as-of 2026-06-04 (captured 2026-06-04), not a live quote. Valuation confidence is medium. The comparable sales below remain modeled around that anchor — they are not real recorded sales. The lowest ask traces to a real ungraded market ask, mapped to this graded level at $101 (TCGPlayer); because the premium scales both sides, the 1% discount is the real ungraded market discount, not a graded-sale discount. The listing rows beneath remain modeled structure.

Bearish: softening prices (-12.5% over 30d) amid thin liquidity and rising graded population (5.8%/mo).

Risk Indicators

Rising graded population may pressure prices
Thin liquidity — few active listings, wider spreads likely
Negative price momentum over the last 30 days

Active Listings

Sales / Month

3.5

Velocity Score

18/100

Illiquid

Sales Velocity 30d

-1.1%

Total Graded

6,206

Gem Mint

1,556

Population Growth

+5.8%

Rising — supply pressure

Grading ROI & Population Trend

Is it worth paying to grade this card? A transparent profit model from the real ungraded cost and the audited graded value, plus a read on graded-supply momentum. The cost and odds levers are modeled assumptions you can adjust — not market-price pins.

Grading ROI (model)

-60.5%

Grading not economical

steady population

Population growing 2.2%/mo — steady supply across 1788 graded.

1,788 graded · 50% gem · +2.2%/mo

Raw cost: $38.00
All-in cost: $67.00+ $25.00 fee · $4.00 ship
Graded value (per gem): $101
Expected proceeds: $26.4530% gem → $30.41 · less 13% fee
Net profit / card: -$40.55
Breakeven graded value: $257value needed to break even

Adjust modeled assumptions

Gem-grade rate30%

Grading fee / card$25.00

These are modeled estimates, not market-price pins.

Modeled gem-grade odds: 30% chance of PSA 10 (a modeled probability, not a market price). Non-gem outcomes are valued conservatively at $0.
Modeled grading-service fee: $25.00 per card, plus $4.00 shipping/insurance (modeled service costs, not market prices).
Modeled marketplace sell fee: 13.0% of graded proceeds (a modeled cost, not a market price).
Raw cost and graded value trace to the existing audited references/pins — this panel authors no new market-price value.

Liquidity & Comp Explorer

How easily does this asset trade? Days-to-sell, sell-through rate, the spread between the lowest ask and the recent sold center, and inventory depth — all modeled over this asset's recorded sales and active listings. Explore the sale distribution with a date-range filter and an outlier-trim toggle.

Liquidity & Comp Explorer

Simulated

Days to sell: 1.1dmodeled median sale gap
Sell-through: 92.0%over 90d window
Bid-ask spread: +2.9%lowest ask vs sold avg
Inventory depth: 1active listings
Recent sold avg: $97.89mean over 90d
Lowest ask: $101cheapest active listing

Comp Explorer

Trim outliers (IQR)

Sold from

Sold to

Min: $87.29
Median: $96.93
Mean: $100
Max: $115

Showing 22 of 22 sales

These liquidity signals are modeled deterministically over this asset's existing recorded sales and active listings — they author no new market-price value. Days-to-sell, sell-through and the bid-ask spread are analytical reads over those comps, not a live order book.

How Fair Value Is Built

A transparent, weighted blend of market signals — no black boxes.

Signal	Detail	Reference	Weight
recent sales	Volume-weighted average of recent sold comps	102.74	50%
listing inventory	Average of active listing asking prices	100.7	25%
price trend	Recent historical price trend projection	112.25	25%
population pressure	Adjustment for grading population growth (more supply lowers value)	-2.89	50%
demand momentum	Adjustment for sales velocity momentum (rising demand raises value)	-0.22	20%

Active Listings

Price	Marketplace	Condition	Seller	Listed	Ends	Link
$101	TCGPlayer	Graded	0	56d ago	Jan 1	View

Recent Sales

Price	Marketplace	Condition	Sold
$95.91	Facebook Marketplace	Graded	57d ago
$110	PWCC	Graded	59d ago
$96.81	Facebook Marketplace	Graded	67d ago
$91.83	eBay	Graded	67d ago
$96.34	PWCC	Graded	67d ago
$96.11	Mercari	Graded	68d ago
$104	eBay	Graded	73d ago
$96.87	Mercari	Graded	78d ago
$99.34	Facebook Marketplace	Graded	84d ago
$96.98	PWCC	Graded	85d ago
$88.26	Mercari	Graded	86d ago
$101	PWCC	Graded	87d ago

Signal Track Record

Did this asset's own Opportunity Scores precede outperformance? Each row is a past as-of date, scored point-in-time, with the realized benchmark-relative return that followed.

Data Provenance

Which signals on this page are real market data versus modeled by the deterministic engine. The terminal marks every source honestly.

This market snapshot is stale — captured Jun 4 (55d old).

Live ingestion (eBay listings & graded sold-comps) is not configured in this environment, so prices are a real but point-in-time capture, not a live quote.

To enable primary-source graded comps, set GRADED_API_KEY and run make ingest-graded PROVIDER=pokemonapi (free tier).

Reference price: Live
Fair value basis: Live-anchored
Lowest ask (deal): Live
Active listings: Live
Card image: Live
Recent sales: Simulated
Population data: Simulated
Liquidity metrics: Simulated
Liquidity analytics: Simulated
Price history: Simulated

Same character or set.

Asset	Fair Value	Lowest	Discount	30d	Avail	Score
MoonbreonEvolving SkiesPSA 10Live-anchoredReal askas of Jun 4 · 56d oldsold-comp center2nd source (tcgcsv): $2,261 · sales-derived, ungradedBuy $1,820 · TCGPlayer Low active inventory+9 pts High listing quality (graded)+6 pts High valuation confidence+6 pts eBay active eBay sold TCGplayer active	$1,880	$1,820	3.2%	0.6%	1	29
Rayquaza VMAX (Alt Art)Evolving SkiesPSA 10Live-anchoredReal askas of Jun 4 · 56d oldsold-comp center2nd source (tcgcsv): $983 · sales-derived, ungradedView $850 · TCGPlayer 8% below fair value+10 pts Low active inventory+9 pts High listing quality (graded)+6 pts eBay active eBay sold TCGplayer active	$2,029	$1,861	8.3%	10.7%	1	35
Evolving Skies Booster BoxEvolving SkiesSimulated Sales accelerating+10 pts 6% below fair value+7 pts High listing quality (sealed)+6 pts eBay active eBay sold TCGplayer active	$12,066	$11,348	6.0%	11.1%	8	38
Sylveon VMAX (Alt Art)Evolving SkiesPSA 10Live-anchoredReal askas of Jun 4 · 56d oldsold-comp center2nd source (tcgcsv): $384 · sales-derived, ungradedView $450 · TCGPlayer Low active inventory+9 pts Price up 29% over 30 days+8 pts High listing quality (graded)+6 pts eBay active eBay sold TCGplayer active	$669	$774	-15.7%	28.7%	1	36
RaichuEvolving SkiesSimulated 15% below fair value+18 pts Sales accelerating+11 pts Low active inventory+6 pts eBay active eBay sold TCGplayer active	$89.32	$75.77	15.2%	10.1%	4	59
LilligantEvolving SkiesSimulated 8% below fair value+9 pts Reputable seller+7 pts Price up 17% over 30 days+7 pts eBay active eBay sold TCGplayer active	$77.23	$71.39	7.6%	17.0%	15	37