Lugia (Neo Genesis)
PSA 9SimulatedLugia (Neo Genesis) · Neo Genesis · Holo Rare · 9/111
Character: Lugia
Price History
Opportunity Score
38- 12% below fair value+14 pts
- Reputable seller+7 pts
- High listing quality (graded)+6 pts
- High valuation confidence+4 pts
- Sales accelerating+2 pts
- Low active inventory+2 pts
- Price up 5% over 30 days+2 pts
- Strong demand (4 sales/mo)+1 pts
Investment Thesis
neutral56Lugia (Neo Genesis) (PSA 9) is currently modestly undervalued, with stable price momentum over the last 30 days (+5.0%). Estimated fair value is $1685 against a lowest active listing of $1489. Valuation confidence is medium based on 8-plus recent comparable sales.
Neutral: flat 30-day price action with thin liquidity and rising graded population (6.6%/mo).
Risk Indicators
- Rising graded population may pressure prices
How Fair Value Is Built
A transparent, weighted blend of market signals — no black boxes.
| Signal | Detail | Reference | Weight |
|---|---|---|---|
| recent sales | Volume-weighted average of recent sold comps | 1743.62 | 50% |
| listing inventory | Average of active listing asking prices | 1715.25 | 25% |
| price trend | Recent historical price trend projection | 1697.58 | 25% |
| population pressure | Adjustment for grading population growth (more supply lowers value) | -3.31 | 50% |
| demand momentum | Adjustment for sales velocity momentum (rising demand raises value) | 1.05 | 20% |
Active Listings
| Price | Marketplace | Condition | Seller | Listed | Ends | Link |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| $1,402 | Mercari | Graded | 62 | 9d ago | Jun 1 | View |
| $1,425 | Facebook Marketplace | Graded | 96 | 4d ago | Jan 1 | View |
| $1,441 | eBay | Graded | 96 | 2d ago | Jun 1 | View |
| $1,458 | Facebook Marketplace | Graded | 98 | 15d ago | Jun 1 | View |
| $1,505 | TCGPlayer | Graded | 88 | 16d ago | Jan 1 | View |
| $1,523 | TCGPlayer | Graded | 94 | 13d ago | Jan 1 | View |
| $1,551 | eBay | Graded | 68 | 11d ago | Jan 1 | View |
| $1,554 | Mercari | Graded | 99 | 9d ago | Jan 1 | View |
| $1,601 | PWCC | Graded | 72 | 5d ago | Jun 1 | View |
| $1,617 | TCGPlayer | Graded | 68 | 9d ago | Jan 1 | View |
| $1,617 | Mercari | Graded | 86 | 7d ago | Jan 1 | View |
| $1,635 | eBay | Graded | 64 | 8d ago | Jun 3 | View |
Recent Sales
| Price | Marketplace | Condition | Sold |
|---|---|---|---|
| $1,595 | Facebook Marketplace | Graded | just now |
| $1,530 | eBay | Graded | 3d ago |
| $1,473 | Facebook Marketplace | Graded | 5d ago |
| $1,618 | Facebook Marketplace | Graded | 7d ago |
| $1,601 | eBay | Graded | 9d ago |
| $1,455 | Mercari | Graded | 9d ago |
| $1,391 | Facebook Marketplace | Graded | 15d ago |
| $1,397 | Facebook Marketplace | Graded | 17d ago |
| $1,407 | eBay | Graded | 24d ago |
| $1,447 | Mercari | Graded | 26d ago |
| $1,308 | Mercari | Graded | 30d ago |
| $1,480 | Mercari | Graded | 43d ago |
Signal Track Record
Did this asset's own Opportunity Scores precede outperformance? Each row is a past as-of date, scored point-in-time, with the realized benchmark-relative return that followed.
Data Provenance
Which signals on this page are real market data versus modeled by the deterministic engine. The terminal marks every source honestly.
- Reference price
- Simulated
- Card image
- Simulated
- Recent sales
- Simulated
- Population data
- Simulated
- Liquidity metrics
- Simulated
- Price history
- Simulated
Related Assets
Same character or set.
| Asset | Fair Value | Lowest | Discount | 30d | Avail | Score |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
Lugia Secret RareCrown ZenithSimulated
| $435 | $391 | 10.0% | 3.5% | 22 | 41 |
Lugia Ultra RareEX Ruby & SapphireSimulated
| $288 | $276 | 4.3% | 4.2% | 23 | 29 |
Lugia Holo RareBase SetSimulated
| $413 | $384 | 6.9% | 1.6% | 6 | 37 |
Lugia Holo RareEvolving SkiesPSA 9.5Simulated
| $176 | $168 | 4.8% | 5.3% | 3 | 42 |
Umbreon VMAX (Alt Art)Neo GenesisSimulated
| $1,409 | $1,225 | 13.1% | 8.3% | 22 | 40 |
Lugia Secret RareHidden FatesSimulated
| $488 | $461 | 5.6% | 17.4% | 11 | 34 |