Lugia (Neo Genesis)
PSA 9LiveLugia (Neo Genesis) · Neo Genesis · Holo Rare · 9/111
Character: Lugia
Lowest ask: real ungraded market ask $300.00 USD mapped to this graded asset's level (×3.5 → $1056.00 USD). Because the same premium scales both the fair value and the ask, this is the real UNGRADED market discount — not a graded-sale discount. Comparable sales below remain modeled structure. The lowest ask is about 35% below the anchored fair value. Real market data ingested from pokemontcg.io — point-in-time snapshot as-of 2026-06-04 (captured 2026-06-04), not a live quote.
2nd source (tcgcsv): $511 · sales-derived, ungraded · tcgcsv.com · as of Jun 4
Source: pokemontcg.io · as of Jun 4 · point-in-time snapshot, not a live quote · 55d old
Price History
Opportunity Score
75- 35% below fair value+35 pts
- Low active inventory+9 pts
- Sales accelerating+9 pts
- Price up 16% over 30 days+6 pts
- High listing quality (graded)+6 pts
- High valuation confidence+6 pts
- Strong demand (14 sales/mo)+4 pts
Investment Thesis
bullish89Lugia (Neo Genesis) (PSA 9) is currently trading at a meaningful discount to fair value, with rising price momentum over the last 30 days (+15.9%). Estimated fair value is $1627 against a lowest active listing of $1056. Fair value is pinned to the real graded sold-comp center for this exact variant (a recent-sales center, not a guide or ask price), using a live ungraded reference from pokemontcg.io. PSA 9 fair value pinned to the graded sold-comp center for this exact variant at $1800, as-of 2026-05-31 [Neo Genesis UNLIMITED Lugia 9/111 PSA 9 — sold center ~$1,800 (CYCLE-11 IMPROVE re-audit: PSA APR Unlimited spec 1776897 realized $1,601.81 Jul2025 / $1,981.55 Sep2025). EXCLUDES 1st-Edition PSA9 ($4,050-$12,787, shares collector #9/111) and PSA 10. Raw NM ~$200-300.] — a real recent SALE center, not a guide/ask price. Live ungraded reference $511.14 (implied grade premium ×3.5). Comparable sales below remain modeled structure around that real graded level. Real market data ingested from pokemontcg.io — point-in-time snapshot as-of 2026-06-04 (captured 2026-06-04), not a live quote. Valuation confidence is high. The comparable sales below remain modeled around that anchor — they are not real recorded sales. The lowest ask traces to a real ungraded market ask, mapped to this graded level at $1056 (TCGPlayer); because the premium scales both sides, the 35% discount is the real ungraded market discount, not a graded-sale discount. The listing rows beneath remain modeled structure.
Bullish: rising prices (+15.9% over 30d) with healthy trading velocity and rising graded population (6.1%/mo).
Risk Indicators
- Rising graded population may pressure prices
- Thin liquidity — few active listings, wider spreads likely
Grading ROI & Population Trend
Is it worth paying to grade this card? A transparent profit model from the real ungraded cost and the audited graded value, plus a read on graded-supply momentum. The cost and odds levers are modeled assumptions you can adjust — not market-price pins.
Population growth slowing to 0.5%/mo — supply tightening across 6205 graded.
6,205 graded · 24% gem · +0.5%/mo
- Raw cost
- $300
- All-in cost
- $329+ $25.00 fee · $4.00 ship
- Graded value (per gem)
- $1,627
- Expected proceeds
- $42530% gem → $488 · less 13% fee
- Net profit / card
- $95.58
- Breakeven graded value
- $1,261value needed to break even
Adjust modeled assumptions
These are modeled estimates, not market-price pins.
- Modeled gem-grade odds: 30% chance of PSA 9 (a modeled probability, not a market price). Non-gem outcomes are valued conservatively at $0.
- Modeled grading-service fee: $25.00 per card, plus $4.00 shipping/insurance (modeled service costs, not market prices).
- Modeled marketplace sell fee: 13.0% of graded proceeds (a modeled cost, not a market price).
- Raw cost and graded value trace to the existing audited references/pins — this panel authors no new market-price value.
Liquidity & Comp Explorer
How easily does this asset trade? Days-to-sell, sell-through rate, the spread between the lowest ask and the recent sold center, and inventory depth — all modeled over this asset's recorded sales and active listings. Explore the sale distribution with a date-range filter and an outlier-trim toggle.
Liquidity & Comp Explorer
- Days to sell
- 1.0dmodeled median sale gap
- Sell-through
- 95.0%over 90d window
- Bid-ask spread
- -43.0%lowest ask vs sold avg
- Inventory depth
- 1active listings
- Recent sold avg
- $1,854mean over 90d
- Lowest ask
- $1,056cheapest active listing
Comp Explorer
- Min
- $1,567
- Median
- $1,807
- Mean
- $1,800
- Max
- $2,094
Showing 27 of 27 sales
These liquidity signals are modeled deterministically over this asset's existing recorded sales and active listings — they author no new market-price value. Days-to-sell, sell-through and the bid-ask spread are analytical reads over those comps, not a live order book.
How Fair Value Is Built
A transparent, weighted blend of market signals — no black boxes.
| Signal | Detail | Reference | Weight |
|---|---|---|---|
| recent sales | Volume-weighted average of recent sold comps | 1849.46 | 50% |
| listing inventory | Average of active listing asking prices | 1056 | 25% |
| price trend | Recent historical price trend projection | 1679.13 | 25% |
| population pressure | Adjustment for grading population growth (more supply lowers value) | -3.06 | 50% |
| demand momentum | Adjustment for sales velocity momentum (rising demand raises value) | 4.33 | 20% |
Active Listings
| Price | Marketplace | Condition | Seller | Listed | Ends | Link |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| $1,056 | TCGPlayer | Graded | 0 | 56d ago | Jan 1 | View |
Recent Sales
| Price | Marketplace | Condition | Sold |
|---|---|---|---|
| $2,052 | PWCC | Graded | 56d ago |
| $2,094 | eBay | Graded | 56d ago |
| $1,807 | PWCC | Graded | 59d ago |
| $1,990 | Facebook Marketplace | Graded | 60d ago |
| $1,889 | Facebook Marketplace | Graded | 63d ago |
| $1,887 | Facebook Marketplace | Graded | 68d ago |
| $1,739 | eBay | Graded | 70d ago |
| $1,795 | PWCC | Graded | 70d ago |
| $2,005 | PWCC | Graded | 70d ago |
| $1,863 | Mercari | Graded | 74d ago |
| $1,871 | Mercari | Graded | 75d ago |
| $1,786 | eBay | Graded | 76d ago |
Signal Track Record
Did this asset's own Opportunity Scores precede outperformance? Each row is a past as-of date, scored point-in-time, with the realized benchmark-relative return that followed.
Data Provenance
Which signals on this page are real market data versus modeled by the deterministic engine. The terminal marks every source honestly.
This market snapshot is stale — captured Jun 4 (55d old).
Live ingestion (eBay listings & graded sold-comps) is not configured in this environment, so prices are a real but point-in-time capture, not a live quote.
To enable primary-source graded comps, set GRADED_API_KEY and run make ingest-graded PROVIDER=pokemonapi (free tier).
- Reference price
- Live
- Fair value basis
- Live-anchored
- Lowest ask (deal)
- Live
- Active listings
- Live
- Card image
- Live
- Recent sales
- Simulated
- Population data
- Simulated
- Liquidity metrics
- Simulated
- Liquidity analytics
- Simulated
- Price history
- Simulated
Related Assets
Same character or set.
| Asset | Fair Value | Lowest | Discount | 30d | Avail | Score |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
 SteelixNeo GenesisSimulated
| $258 | $204 | 21.0% | 25.4% | 15 | 51 |
 QuilavaNeo GenesisPSA 9Simulated
| $265 | $283 | -6.5% | 19.8% | 11 | 35 |
 HeracrossNeo GenesisBGS 9.5Simulated
| $233 | $217 | 7.0% | 23.4% | 4 | 53 |
 SeadraNeo GenesisCGC 9Simulated
| $295 | $280 | 5.1% | 3.3% | 15 | 36 |
 FlaaffyNeo GenesisSimulated
| $135 | $124 | 8.6% | 4.3% | 14 | 38 |
 ChikoritaNeo GenesisSimulated
| $193 | $161 | 16.7% | 21.6% | 8 | 67 |