Seadra
CGC 9SimulatedSeadra · Neo Genesis · Uncommon · 48
Character: Seadra
Price History
Opportunity Score
48- 14% below fair value+17 pts
- Sales accelerating+7 pts
- High valuation confidence+7 pts
- High listing quality (graded)+6 pts
- Reputable seller+5 pts
- Strong demand (15 sales/mo)+5 pts
- Population growth slowing+2 pts
Investment Thesis
bearish22Seadra (CGC 9) is currently modestly undervalued, with softening price momentum over the last 30 days (-25.2%). Estimated fair value is $236 against a lowest active listing of $202. Valuation confidence is high based on 16-plus modeled comparable sales.
Bearish: softening prices (-25.2% over 30d) amid healthy trading velocity and stable graded supply.
Risk Indicators
- Negative price momentum over the last 30 days
Grading ROI & Population Trend
Is it worth paying to grade this card? A transparent profit model from the real ungraded cost and the audited graded value, plus a read on graded-supply momentum. The cost and odds levers are modeled assumptions you can adjust — not market-price pins.
Population growth slowing to -0.6%/mo — supply tightening across 2648 graded.
2,648 graded · 52% gem · -0.6%/mo
- Raw cost
- $202
- All-in cost
- $231+ $25.00 fee · $4.00 ship
- Graded value (per gem)
- $236
- Expected proceeds
- $61.6330% gem → $70.84 · less 13% fee
- Net profit / card
- -$169.73
- Breakeven graded value
- $886value needed to break even
Adjust modeled assumptions
These are modeled estimates, not market-price pins.
- Modeled gem-grade odds: 30% chance of CGC 9 (a modeled probability, not a market price). Non-gem outcomes are valued conservatively at $0.
- Modeled grading-service fee: $25.00 per card, plus $4.00 shipping/insurance (modeled service costs, not market prices).
- Modeled marketplace sell fee: 13.0% of graded proceeds (a modeled cost, not a market price).
- Raw cost and graded value trace to the existing audited references/pins — this panel authors no new market-price value.
Liquidity & Comp Explorer
How easily does this asset trade? Days-to-sell, sell-through rate, the spread between the lowest ask and the recent sold center, and inventory depth — all modeled over this asset's recorded sales and active listings. Explore the sale distribution with a date-range filter and an outlier-trim toggle.
Liquidity & Comp Explorer
Not enough recent sales to model liquidity for this asset. At least three in-window sales are needed for a reliable read.
Comp Explorer
- Min
- $312
- Median
- $352
- Mean
- $356
- Max
- $388
Showing 8 of 8 sales
These liquidity signals are modeled deterministically over this asset's existing recorded sales and active listings — they author no new market-price value. Days-to-sell, sell-through and the bid-ask spread are analytical reads over those comps, not a live order book.
How Fair Value Is Built
A transparent, weighted blend of market signals — no black boxes.
| Signal | Detail | Reference | Weight |
|---|---|---|---|
| recent sales | Volume-weighted average of recent sold comps | 250.13 | 50% |
| listing inventory | Average of active listing asking prices | 227.97 | 25% |
| price trend | Recent historical price trend projection | 200.7 | 25% |
| population pressure | Adjustment for grading population growth (more supply lowers value) | -1.96 | 50% |
| demand momentum | Adjustment for sales velocity momentum (rising demand raises value) | 3.72 | 20% |
Active Listings
| Price | Marketplace | Condition | Seller | Listed | Ends | Link |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| $301 | eBay | Graded | 90 | 69d ago | Jan 1 | View |
| $304 | Mercari | Graded | 98 | 70d ago | Jan 1 | View |
| $326 | eBay | Graded | 65 | 70d ago | Jan 1 | View |
| $327 | PWCC | Graded | 92 | 59d ago | Jan 1 | View |
| $333 | Mercari | Graded | 80 | 75d ago | Jan 1 | View |
| $336 | PWCC | Graded | 87 | 73d ago | Jan 1 | View |
| $342 | Mercari | Graded | 72 | 62d ago | Jan 1 | View |
| $346 | Facebook Marketplace | Graded | 77 | 55d ago | Jan 1 | View |
| $349 | Mercari | Graded | 61 | 64d ago | Jan 1 | View |
| $350 | PWCC | Graded | 86 | 66d ago | Jun 6 | View |
| $355 | eBay | Graded | 80 | 71d ago | Jan 1 | View |
| $356 | Facebook Marketplace | Graded | 92 | 61d ago | Jun 6 | View |
Recent Sales
| Price | Marketplace | Condition | Sold |
|---|---|---|---|
| $387 | PWCC | Graded | 79d ago |
| $388 | Mercari | Graded | 80d ago |
| $373 | eBay | Graded | 93d ago |
| $336 | Mercari | Graded | 94d ago |
| $312 | Mercari | Graded | 102d ago |
| $358 | eBay | Graded | 104d ago |
| $346 | Facebook Marketplace | Graded | 105d ago |
| $345 | eBay | Graded | 106d ago |
Signal Track Record
Did this asset's own Opportunity Scores precede outperformance? Each row is a past as-of date, scored point-in-time, with the realized benchmark-relative return that followed.
Data Provenance
Which signals on this page are real market data versus modeled by the deterministic engine. The terminal marks every source honestly.
- Reference price
- Simulated
- Fair value basis
- Simulated
- Lowest ask (deal)
- Simulated
- Active listings
- Simulated
- Card image
- Live
- Recent sales
- Simulated
- Population data
- Simulated
- Liquidity metrics
- Simulated
- Liquidity analytics
- Simulated
- Price history
- Simulated
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