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Lugia VMAX (Alt Art)

Simulated

Lugia VMAX (Alt Art) · Evolving Skies · Alt Art · 148/237

Character: Lugia

high confidencebullish6230d 2.7%
Estimated Fair Value
$502
Lowest listing $4755.4% below
Bear Case
$435
Base Case
$502
Bull Case
$570

Price History

Dec 2Range $380$573May 30

Opportunity Score

30
  • Reputable seller+8 pts
  • High valuation confidence+7 pts
  • 5% below fair value+6 pts
  • High listing quality (near mint)+6 pts
  • Strong demand (8 sales/mo)+2 pts
  • Price up 3% over 30 days+1 pts

Investment Thesis

bullish62

Lugia VMAX (Alt Art) is currently modestly undervalued, with stable price momentum over the last 30 days (+2.7%). Estimated fair value is $502 against a lowest active listing of $475. Valuation confidence is high based on 16-plus recent comparable sales.

Bullish: flat 30-day price action with thin liquidity and stable graded supply.

Active Listings
16
Sales / Month
8.0
Velocity Score
40/100
Moderate
Sales Velocity 30d
-8.5%
Confidence
98/100

How Fair Value Is Built

A transparent, weighted blend of market signals — no black boxes.

SignalDetailReferenceWeight
recent salesVolume-weighted average of recent sold comps499.9750%
listing inventoryAverage of active listing asking prices535.1325%
price trendRecent historical price trend projection507.3525%
demand momentumAdjustment for sales velocity momentum (rising demand raises value)-1.7120%

Active Listings

PriceMarketplaceConditionSellerListedEndsLink
$441PWCCNear Mint6715d agoJan 1View
$447PWCCNear Mint8210d agoJan 1View
$449eBayNear Mint8913d agoJan 1View
$476eBayNear Mint6710d agoJun 4View
$560Facebook MarketplaceNear Mint657d agoJan 1View
$584PWCCNear Mint957d agoJun 4View

Recent Sales

PriceMarketplaceConditionSold
$540eBayNear Mint2d ago
$445TCGPlayerNear Mint5d ago
$431Facebook MarketplaceNear Mint6d ago
$476TCGPlayerNear Mint7d ago
$494eBayNear Mint20d ago
$510PWCCNear Mint24d ago
$528MercariNear Mint31d ago
$528MercariNear Mint31d ago
$434eBayNear Mint39d ago
$472eBayNear Mint42d ago
$504Facebook MarketplaceNear Mint47d ago
$535TCGPlayerNear Mint48d ago

Signal Track Record

Did this asset's own Opportunity Scores precede outperformance? Each row is a past as-of date, scored point-in-time, with the realized benchmark-relative return that followed.

Data Provenance

Which signals on this page are real market data versus modeled by the deterministic engine. The terminal marks every source honestly.

Reference price
Simulated
Card image
Simulated
Recent sales
Simulated
Population data
Simulated
Liquidity metrics
Simulated
Price history
Simulated

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