Price History
Opportunity Score
42- 15% below fair value+18 pts
- Reputable seller+8 pts
- High valuation confidence+7 pts
- High listing quality (near mint)+6 pts
- Strong demand (12 sales/mo)+4 pts
Investment Thesis
bearish24Umbreon ex (Special Illustration) is currently trading at a meaningful discount to fair value, with softening price momentum over the last 30 days (-19.9%). Estimated fair value is $2670 against a lowest active listing of $2267. Valuation confidence is high based on 20-plus recent comparable sales.
Bearish: softening prices (-19.9% over 30d) amid healthy trading velocity and stable graded supply.
Risk Indicators
- Negative price momentum over the last 30 days
How Fair Value Is Built
A transparent, weighted blend of market signals — no black boxes.
| Signal | Detail | Reference | Weight |
|---|---|---|---|
| recent sales | Volume-weighted average of recent sold comps | 2870.63 | 50% |
| listing inventory | Average of active listing asking prices | 2601.19 | 25% |
| price trend | Recent historical price trend projection | 2393.29 | 25% |
| demand momentum | Adjustment for sales velocity momentum (rising demand raises value) | -0.53 | 20% |
Active Listings
| Price | Marketplace | Condition | Seller | Listed | Ends | Link |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| $1,971 | PWCC | Near Mint | 90 | 20d ago | Jan 1 | View |
| $1,983 | eBay | Near Mint | 60 | 9d ago | Jun 2 | View |
| $1,999 | TCGPlayer | Near Mint | 80 | 11d ago | Jan 1 | View |
| $2,018 | TCGPlayer | Near Mint | 89 | 7d ago | Jan 1 | View |
| $2,125 | Facebook Marketplace | Near Mint | 64 | 17d ago | Jan 1 | View |
| $2,148 | Mercari | Near Mint | 66 | 12d ago | Jan 1 | View |
| $2,228 | Facebook Marketplace | Near Mint | 71 | 6d ago | Jun 2 | View |
| $2,278 | TCGPlayer | Near Mint | 94 | 18d ago | Jun 3 | View |
| $2,281 | eBay | Near Mint | 68 | 19d ago | Jun 2 | View |
| $2,293 | TCGPlayer | Near Mint | 88 | 19d ago | Jan 1 | View |
| $2,376 | TCGPlayer | Near Mint | 94 | 12d ago | Jun 3 | View |
| $2,460 | eBay | Near Mint | 81 | 21d ago | Jan 1 | View |
Recent Sales
| Price | Marketplace | Condition | Sold |
|---|---|---|---|
| $2,427 | Facebook Marketplace | Near Mint | 8d ago |
| $2,538 | PWCC | Near Mint | 18d ago |
| $2,518 | Mercari | Near Mint | 22d ago |
| $2,340 | TCGPlayer | Near Mint | 24d ago |
| $2,345 | Mercari | Near Mint | 26d ago |
| $2,444 | PWCC | Near Mint | 27d ago |
| $2,334 | PWCC | Near Mint | 27d ago |
| $2,486 | Facebook Marketplace | Near Mint | 28d ago |
| $2,221 | eBay | Near Mint | 34d ago |
| $2,074 | Facebook Marketplace | Near Mint | 35d ago |
| $1,840 | Mercari | Near Mint | 38d ago |
| $1,995 | PWCC | Near Mint | 39d ago |
Signal Track Record
Did this asset's own Opportunity Scores precede outperformance? Each row is a past as-of date, scored point-in-time, with the realized benchmark-relative return that followed.
Data Provenance
Which signals on this page are real market data versus modeled by the deterministic engine. The terminal marks every source honestly.
- Reference price
- Simulated
- Card image
- Simulated
- Recent sales
- Simulated
- Population data
- Simulated
- Liquidity metrics
- Simulated
- Price history
- Simulated
Related Assets
Same character or set.
| Asset | Fair Value | Lowest | Discount | 30d | Avail | Score |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
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Umbreon PromoScarlet & Violet 151Simulated
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MoonbreonEvolving SkiesPSA 10Simulated
| $1,587 | $1,432 | 9.8% | 0.8% | 5 | 40 |
Umbreon Holo RareXY EvolutionsSimulated
| $292 | $230 | 21.4% | 22.0% | 12 | 50 |
Umbreon V (Full Art)Scarlet & Violet 151BGS 9.5Simulated
| $529 | $464 | 12.3% | 14.0% | 12 | 46 |
Umbreon PromoHeartGold SoulSilverSimulated
| $406 | $374 | 8.0% | 11.1% | 8 | 49 |