Heracross
BGS 9.5SimulatedHeracross · Neo Genesis · Rare Holo · 6
Character: Heracross
Price History
Opportunity Score
40- 8% below fair value+9 pts
- Reputable seller+7 pts
- High valuation confidence+7 pts
- High listing quality (graded)+6 pts
- Sales accelerating+6 pts
- Strong demand (18 sales/mo)+6 pts
Investment Thesis
bearish38Heracross (BGS 9.5) is currently modestly undervalued, with softening price momentum over the last 30 days (-9.4%). Estimated fair value is $208 against a lowest active listing of $192. Valuation confidence is high based on 10-plus modeled comparable sales.
Bearish: softening prices (-9.4% over 30d) amid healthy trading velocity and stable graded supply.
Grading ROI & Population Trend
Is it worth paying to grade this card? A transparent profit model from the real ungraded cost and the audited graded value, plus a read on graded-supply momentum. The cost and odds levers are modeled assumptions you can adjust — not market-price pins.
Population growth slowing to 1.5%/mo — supply tightening across 2953 graded.
2,953 graded · 52% gem · +1.5%/mo
- Raw cost
- $192
- All-in cost
- $221+ $25.00 fee · $4.00 ship
- Graded value (per gem)
- $208
- Expected proceeds
- $54.3630% gem → $62.48 · less 13% fee
- Net profit / card
- -$166.41
- Breakeven graded value
- $846value needed to break even
Adjust modeled assumptions
These are modeled estimates, not market-price pins.
- Modeled gem-grade odds: 30% chance of BGS 9.5 (a modeled probability, not a market price). Non-gem outcomes are valued conservatively at $0.
- Modeled grading-service fee: $25.00 per card, plus $4.00 shipping/insurance (modeled service costs, not market prices).
- Modeled marketplace sell fee: 13.0% of graded proceeds (a modeled cost, not a market price).
- Raw cost and graded value trace to the existing audited references/pins — this panel authors no new market-price value.
Liquidity & Comp Explorer
How easily does this asset trade? Days-to-sell, sell-through rate, the spread between the lowest ask and the recent sold center, and inventory depth — all modeled over this asset's recorded sales and active listings. Explore the sale distribution with a date-range filter and an outlier-trim toggle.
Liquidity & Comp Explorer
- Days to sell
- 2.1dmodeled median sale gap
- Sell-through
- 59.0%over 90d window
- Bid-ask spread
- -9.5%lowest ask vs sold avg
- Inventory depth
- 11active listings
- Recent sold avg
- $273mean over 90d
- Lowest ask
- $247cheapest active listing
Comp Explorer
- Min
- $253
- Median
- $275
- Mean
- $275
- Max
- $302
Showing 21 of 23 sales · 2 outliers trimmed
These liquidity signals are modeled deterministically over this asset's existing recorded sales and active listings — they author no new market-price value. Days-to-sell, sell-through and the bid-ask spread are analytical reads over those comps, not a live order book.
How Fair Value Is Built
A transparent, weighted blend of market signals — no black boxes.
| Signal | Detail | Reference | Weight |
|---|---|---|---|
| recent sales | Volume-weighted average of recent sold comps | 204.95 | 50% |
| listing inventory | Average of active listing asking prices | 226.87 | 25% |
| price trend | Recent historical price trend projection | 192.12 | 25% |
| population pressure | Adjustment for grading population growth (more supply lowers value) | -2.3 | 50% |
| demand momentum | Adjustment for sales velocity momentum (rising demand raises value) | 2.87 | 20% |
Active Listings
| Price | Marketplace | Condition | Seller | Listed | Ends | Link |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| $247 | TCGPlayer | Graded | 79 | 64d ago | Jun 9 | View |
| $255 | PWCC | Graded | 75 | 60d ago | Jan 1 | View |
| $270 | PWCC | Graded | 72 | 69d ago | Jan 1 | View |
| $270 | Facebook Marketplace | Graded | 94 | 57d ago | Jan 1 | View |
| $272 | eBay | Graded | 84 | 63d ago | Jan 1 | View |
| $274 | Facebook Marketplace | Graded | 79 | 67d ago | Jan 1 | View |
| $276 | eBay | Graded | 77 | 62d ago | Jan 1 | View |
| $277 | TCGPlayer | Graded | 79 | 70d ago | Jan 1 | View |
| $290 | PWCC | Graded | 73 | 57d ago | Jan 1 | View |
| $302 | TCGPlayer | Graded | 82 | 58d ago | Jun 7 | View |
| $312 | eBay | Graded | 75 | 57d ago | Jan 1 | View |
Recent Sales
| Price | Marketplace | Condition | Sold |
|---|---|---|---|
| $262 | Mercari | Graded | 54d ago |
| $275 | Facebook Marketplace | Graded | 61d ago |
| $265 | Mercari | Graded | 61d ago |
| $271 | Mercari | Graded | 62d ago |
| $276 | Facebook Marketplace | Graded | 62d ago |
| $281 | Mercari | Graded | 62d ago |
| $263 | Mercari | Graded | 64d ago |
| $272 | TCGPlayer | Graded | 64d ago |
| $269 | eBay | Graded | 67d ago |
| $272 | eBay | Graded | 70d ago |
| $282 | PWCC | Graded | 75d ago |
| $280 | PWCC | Graded | 77d ago |
Signal Track Record
Did this asset's own Opportunity Scores precede outperformance? Each row is a past as-of date, scored point-in-time, with the realized benchmark-relative return that followed.
Data Provenance
Which signals on this page are real market data versus modeled by the deterministic engine. The terminal marks every source honestly.
- Reference price
- Simulated
- Fair value basis
- Simulated
- Lowest ask (deal)
- Simulated
- Active listings
- Simulated
- Card image
- Live
- Recent sales
- Simulated
- Population data
- Simulated
- Liquidity metrics
- Simulated
- Liquidity analytics
- Simulated
- Price history
- Simulated
Related Assets
Same character or set.
| Asset | Fair Value | Lowest | Discount | 30d | Avail | Score |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
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 QuilavaNeo GenesisPSA 9Simulated
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 FlaaffyNeo GenesisSimulated
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