Quilava
PSA 9SimulatedQuilava · Neo Genesis · Uncommon · 47
Character: Quilava
Price History
Opportunity Score
39- 13% below fair value+15 pts
- High valuation confidence+7 pts
- High listing quality (graded)+6 pts
- Reputable seller+5 pts
- Strong demand (8 sales/mo)+3 pts
- Sales accelerating+2 pts
- Population growth slowing+2 pts
Investment Thesis
neutral50Quilava (PSA 9) is currently modestly undervalued, with stable price momentum over the last 30 days (-1.0%). Estimated fair value is $297 against a lowest active listing of $260. Valuation confidence is high based on 13-plus modeled comparable sales.
Neutral: flat 30-day price action with thin liquidity and stable graded supply.
Grading ROI & Population Trend
Is it worth paying to grade this card? A transparent profit model from the real ungraded cost and the audited graded value, plus a read on graded-supply momentum. The cost and odds levers are modeled assumptions you can adjust — not market-price pins.
Population growing 3.3%/mo — steady supply across 2145 graded.
2,145 graded · 50% gem · +3.3%/mo
- Raw cost
- $260
- All-in cost
- $289+ $25.00 fee · $4.00 ship
- Graded value (per gem)
- $297
- Expected proceeds
- $77.4530% gem → $89.03 · less 13% fee
- Net profit / card
- -$211.15
- Breakeven graded value
- $1,106value needed to break even
Adjust modeled assumptions
These are modeled estimates, not market-price pins.
- Modeled gem-grade odds: 30% chance of PSA 9 (a modeled probability, not a market price). Non-gem outcomes are valued conservatively at $0.
- Modeled grading-service fee: $25.00 per card, plus $4.00 shipping/insurance (modeled service costs, not market prices).
- Modeled marketplace sell fee: 13.0% of graded proceeds (a modeled cost, not a market price).
- Raw cost and graded value trace to the existing audited references/pins — this panel authors no new market-price value.
Liquidity & Comp Explorer
How easily does this asset trade? Days-to-sell, sell-through rate, the spread between the lowest ask and the recent sold center, and inventory depth — all modeled over this asset's recorded sales and active listings. Explore the sale distribution with a date-range filter and an outlier-trim toggle.
Liquidity & Comp Explorer
- Days to sell
- 4.1dmodeled median sale gap
- Sell-through
- 35.0%over 90d window
- Bid-ask spread
- -24.8%lowest ask vs sold avg
- Inventory depth
- 17active listings
- Recent sold avg
- $281mean over 90d
- Lowest ask
- $211cheapest active listing
Comp Explorer
- Min
- $234
- Median
- $268
- Mean
- $265
- Max
- $285
Showing 16 of 18 sales · 2 outliers trimmed
These liquidity signals are modeled deterministically over this asset's existing recorded sales and active listings — they author no new market-price value. Days-to-sell, sell-through and the bid-ask spread are analytical reads over those comps, not a live order book.
How Fair Value Is Built
A transparent, weighted blend of market signals — no black boxes.
| Signal | Detail | Reference | Weight |
|---|---|---|---|
| recent sales | Volume-weighted average of recent sold comps | 307.06 | 50% |
| listing inventory | Average of active listing asking prices | 288.41 | 25% |
| price trend | Recent historical price trend projection | 293.03 | 25% |
| population pressure | Adjustment for grading population growth (more supply lowers value) | -1.88 | 50% |
| demand momentum | Adjustment for sales velocity momentum (rising demand raises value) | 1.19 | 20% |
Active Listings
| Price | Marketplace | Condition | Seller | Listed | Ends | Link |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| $211 | PWCC | Graded | 85 | 70d ago | Jan 1 | View |
| $215 | Mercari | Graded | 84 | 65d ago | Jan 1 | View |
| $220 | Facebook Marketplace | Graded | 85 | 62d ago | Jan 1 | View |
| $223 | Mercari | Graded | 70 | 74d ago | Jan 1 | View |
| $226 | TCGPlayer | Graded | 96 | 64d ago | Jan 1 | View |
| $228 | Facebook Marketplace | Graded | 83 | 64d ago | Jan 1 | View |
| $229 | eBay | Graded | 90 | 56d ago | Jan 1 | View |
| $233 | eBay | Graded | 65 | 56d ago | Jan 1 | View |
| $244 | eBay | Graded | 90 | 71d ago | Jan 1 | View |
| $255 | eBay | Graded | 69 | 71d ago | Jun 9 | View |
| $256 | eBay | Graded | 66 | 71d ago | Jan 1 | View |
| $257 | Mercari | Graded | 67 | 70d ago | Jan 1 | View |
Recent Sales
| Price | Marketplace | Condition | Sold |
|---|---|---|---|
| $242 | Mercari | Graded | 58d ago |
| $269 | TCGPlayer | Graded | 68d ago |
| $273 | TCGPlayer | Graded | 72d ago |
| $264 | PWCC | Graded | 76d ago |
| $277 | eBay | Graded | 76d ago |
| $285 | TCGPlayer | Graded | 78d ago |
| $332 | eBay | Graded | 83d ago |
| $310 | eBay | Graded | 85d ago |
| $276 | Facebook Marketplace | Graded | 90d ago |
| $262 | TCGPlayer | Graded | 91d ago |
| $250 | PWCC | Graded | 92d ago |
| $273 | Mercari | Graded | 94d ago |
Signal Track Record
Did this asset's own Opportunity Scores precede outperformance? Each row is a past as-of date, scored point-in-time, with the realized benchmark-relative return that followed.
Data Provenance
Which signals on this page are real market data versus modeled by the deterministic engine. The terminal marks every source honestly.
- Reference price
- Simulated
- Fair value basis
- Simulated
- Lowest ask (deal)
- Simulated
- Active listings
- Simulated
- Card image
- Live
- Recent sales
- Simulated
- Population data
- Simulated
- Liquidity metrics
- Simulated
- Liquidity analytics
- Simulated
- Price history
- Simulated
Related Assets
Same character or set.
| Asset | Fair Value | Lowest | Discount | 30d | Avail | Score |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
 Lugia (Neo Genesis)Neo GenesisPSA 9Live-anchoredReal askas of Jun 4 · 56d oldsold-comp center2nd source (tcgcsv): $511 · sales-derived, ungradedView $300 · TCGPlayer
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 SeadraNeo GenesisCGC 9Simulated
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 FlaaffyNeo GenesisSimulated
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 ChikoritaNeo GenesisSimulated
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