Pikachu (Illustrator-style)

PSA 10Live

Pikachu (Illustrator-style) · Scarlet & Violet 151 · Special Illustration Rare · 173/165

Character: Pikachu

high confidencebullish8030d 8.9%

Estimated Fair Value

$549

PSA 10 fair value pinned to the graded sold-comp center for this exact variant at $555, as-of 2026-05-30 [SV 151 Pikachu SIR 173/165 (English) PSA 10 — sold center ~$555-580 (SCI last sale $590 / 14-day avg $583 May 27 2026; PokeInvest $572; eBay sold $600 May 11 2026). Japanese AR (~$75-83) and Chinese AR (~$1,277-1,572) excluded. Raw NM ~$85-89. CYCLE-11 IMPROVE re-audit SUPPORTED (slightly conservative).] — a real recent SALE center, not a guide/ask price. Live ungraded reference $97.53 (implied grade premium ×5.7). Comparable sales below remain modeled structure around that real graded level. Real market data ingested from pokemontcg.io — point-in-time snapshot as-of 2026-06-04 (captured 2026-06-04), not a live quote.

Graded-equivalent ask $472 USD14.0% below

Lowest ask: real ungraded market ask $82.96 USD mapped to this graded asset's level (×5.7 → $472.04 USD). Because the same premium scales both the fair value and the ask, this is the real UNGRADED market discount — not a graded-sale discount. Comparable sales below remain modeled structure. The lowest ask is about 14% below the anchored fair value. Real market data ingested from pokemontcg.io — point-in-time snapshot as-of 2026-06-04 (captured 2026-06-04), not a live quote.

2nd source (tcgcsv): $97.89 · sales-derived, ungraded · tcgcsv.com · as of Jun 4

View ungraded listing — $82.96 USD on TCGPlayer

Source: pokemontcg.io · as of Jun 4 · point-in-time snapshot, not a live quote · 55d old

Search live listings:eBay active eBay sold TCGplayer active

Bear Case

$474

Base Case

$549

Bull Case

$625

Price History

Dec 8Range $409 – $586Jun 5

Opportunity Score

14% below fair value+16 pts
Low active inventory+9 pts
Population growth slowing+8 pts
High listing quality (graded)+6 pts
High valuation confidence+6 pts
Strong demand (14 sales/mo)+4 pts
Price up 9% over 30 days+4 pts

Investment Thesis

bullish80

Pikachu (Illustrator-style) (PSA 10) is currently modestly undervalued, with rising price momentum over the last 30 days (+8.9%). Estimated fair value is $549 against a lowest active listing of $472. Fair value is pinned to the real graded sold-comp center for this exact variant (a recent-sales center, not a guide or ask price), using a live ungraded reference from pokemontcg.io. PSA 10 fair value pinned to the graded sold-comp center for this exact variant at $555, as-of 2026-05-30 [SV 151 Pikachu SIR 173/165 (English) PSA 10 — sold center ~$555-580 (SCI last sale $590 / 14-day avg $583 May 27 2026; PokeInvest $572; eBay sold $600 May 11 2026). Japanese AR (~$75-83) and Chinese AR (~$1,277-1,572) excluded. Raw NM ~$85-89. CYCLE-11 IMPROVE re-audit SUPPORTED (slightly conservative).] — a real recent SALE center, not a guide/ask price. Live ungraded reference $97.53 (implied grade premium ×5.7). Comparable sales below remain modeled structure around that real graded level. Real market data ingested from pokemontcg.io — point-in-time snapshot as-of 2026-06-04 (captured 2026-06-04), not a live quote. Valuation confidence is high. The comparable sales below remain modeled around that anchor — they are not real recorded sales. The lowest ask traces to a real ungraded market ask, mapped to this graded level at $472 (TCGPlayer); because the premium scales both sides, the 14% discount is the real ungraded market discount, not a graded-sale discount. The listing rows beneath remain modeled structure.

Bullish: rising prices (+8.9% over 30d) with healthy trading velocity and stable graded supply.

Risk Indicators

Thin liquidity — few active listings, wider spreads likely

Active Listings

Sales / Month

14.0

Velocity Score

70/100

Fast-moving

Sales Velocity 30d

-0.1%

Total Graded

2,506

Gem Mint

534

Population Growth

-0.2%

Stable supply

Grading ROI & Population Trend

Is it worth paying to grade this card? A transparent profit model from the real ungraded cost and the audited graded value, plus a read on graded-supply momentum. The cost and odds levers are modeled assumptions you can adjust — not market-price pins.

Grading ROI (model)

+27.9%

Strong grading ROI

steady population

Population growing 2.5%/mo — steady supply across 7143 graded.

7,143 graded · 24% gem · +2.5%/mo

Raw cost: $82.96
All-in cost: $112+ $25.00 fee · $4.00 ship
Graded value (per gem): $549
Expected proceeds: $14330% gem → $165 · less 13% fee
Net profit / card: $31.24
Breakeven graded value: $429value needed to break even

Adjust modeled assumptions

Gem-grade rate30%

Grading fee / card$25.00

These are modeled estimates, not market-price pins.

Modeled gem-grade odds: 30% chance of PSA 10 (a modeled probability, not a market price). Non-gem outcomes are valued conservatively at $0.
Modeled grading-service fee: $25.00 per card, plus $4.00 shipping/insurance (modeled service costs, not market prices).
Modeled marketplace sell fee: 13.0% of graded proceeds (a modeled cost, not a market price).
Raw cost and graded value trace to the existing audited references/pins — this panel authors no new market-price value.

Liquidity & Comp Explorer

How easily does this asset trade? Days-to-sell, sell-through rate, the spread between the lowest ask and the recent sold center, and inventory depth — all modeled over this asset's recorded sales and active listings. Explore the sale distribution with a date-range filter and an outlier-trim toggle.

Liquidity & Comp Explorer

Simulated

Days to sell: 2.7dmodeled median sale gap
Sell-through: 83.0%over 90d window
Bid-ask spread: -16.9%lowest ask vs sold avg
Inventory depth: 1active listings
Recent sold avg: $568mean over 90d
Lowest ask: $472cheapest active listing

Comp Explorer

Trim outliers (IQR)

Sold from

Sold to

Min: $494
Median: $544
Mean: $555
Max: $613

Showing 7 of 7 sales

These liquidity signals are modeled deterministically over this asset's existing recorded sales and active listings — they author no new market-price value. Days-to-sell, sell-through and the bid-ask spread are analytical reads over those comps, not a live order book.

How Fair Value Is Built

A transparent, weighted blend of market signals — no black boxes.

Signal	Detail	Reference	Weight
recent sales	Volume-weighted average of recent sold comps	572.18	50%
listing inventory	Average of active listing asking prices	472.04	25%
price trend	Recent historical price trend projection	576.87	25%
population pressure	Adjustment for grading population growth (more supply lowers value)	0.08	50%
demand momentum	Adjustment for sales velocity momentum (rising demand raises value)	-0.02	20%

Active Listings

Price	Marketplace	Condition	Seller	Listed	Ends	Link
$472	TCGPlayer	Graded	0	56d ago	Jan 1	View

Recent Sales

Price	Marketplace	Condition	Sold
$613	eBay	Graded	58d ago
$543	TCGPlayer	Graded	59d ago
$538	eBay	Graded	63d ago
$544	Facebook Marketplace	Graded	68d ago
$602	eBay	Graded	70d ago
$552	PWCC	Graded	92d ago
$494	eBay	Graded	104d ago

Signal Track Record

Did this asset's own Opportunity Scores precede outperformance? Each row is a past as-of date, scored point-in-time, with the realized benchmark-relative return that followed.

Data Provenance

Which signals on this page are real market data versus modeled by the deterministic engine. The terminal marks every source honestly.

This market snapshot is stale — captured Jun 4 (55d old).

Live ingestion (eBay listings & graded sold-comps) is not configured in this environment, so prices are a real but point-in-time capture, not a live quote.

To enable primary-source graded comps, set GRADED_API_KEY and run make ingest-graded PROVIDER=pokemonapi (free tier).

Reference price: Live
Fair value basis: Live-anchored
Lowest ask (deal): Live
Active listings: Live
Card image: Live
Recent sales: Simulated
Population data: Simulated
Liquidity metrics: Simulated
Liquidity analytics: Simulated
Price history: Simulated

Same character or set.

Asset	Fair Value	Lowest	Discount	30d	Avail	Score
PikachuJungleSimulated 18% below fair value+21 pts Sales accelerating+11 pts Reputable seller+7 pts eBay active eBay sold TCGplayer active	$52,597	$42,993	18.3%	12.6%	23	52
PikachuScarlet & Violet 151Simulated 15% below fair value+17 pts Sales accelerating+10 pts Price up 34% over 30 days+8 pts eBay active eBay sold TCGplayer active	$2,992	$2,557	14.5%	34.3%	11	59
Scarlet & Violet 151 Booster BoxScarlet & Violet 151Simulated 9% below fair value+11 pts High valuation confidence+6 pts High listing quality (sealed)+6 pts eBay active eBay sold TCGplayer active	$3,346	$3,036	9.3%	11.2%	6	41
Blastoise exScarlet & Violet 151Simulated 22% below fair value+26 pts Sales accelerating+7 pts Low active inventory+6 pts eBay active eBay sold TCGplayer active	$709	$552	22.1%	8.9%	4	59
Blastoise exScarlet & Violet 151Simulated 10% below fair value+12 pts Sales accelerating+8 pts Reputable seller+7 pts eBay active eBay sold TCGplayer active	$464	$416	10.4%	2.2%	20	38
CharmeleonScarlet & Violet 151Simulated 21% below fair value+25 pts Sales accelerating+11 pts High valuation confidence+7 pts eBay active eBay sold TCGplayer active	$130	$102	21.5%	15.8%	13	57