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Pikachu — Scarlet & Violet 151 — Common

Pikachu

Simulated

Pikachu · Scarlet & Violet 151 · Common · 25

Character: Pikachu

high confidencebullish7130d ▲3.7%
Estimated Fair Value
$3,192
Lowest listing $3,342
Search live listings:eBay activeeBay soldTCGplayer active
Bear Case
$2,671
Base Case
$3,192
Bull Case
$3,711

Price History

Dec 8Range $91.86 – $184Jun 5

Opportunity Score

42
  • Sales accelerating+10 pts
  • Low active inventory+8 pts
  • High listing quality (near mint)+6 pts
  • High valuation confidence+6 pts
  • Reputable seller+5 pts
  • Strong demand (16 sales/mo)+5 pts
  • Price up 4% over 30 days+2 pts

Investment Thesis

bullish71

Pikachu is currently fairly valued, with stable price momentum over the last 30 days (+3.7%). Estimated fair value is $3192 against a lowest active listing of $3342. Valuation confidence is high based on 2-plus modeled comparable sales.

Bullish: flat 30-day price action with healthy trading velocity and stable graded supply.

Risk Indicators

  • Thin liquidity — few active listings, wider spreads likely
Active Listings
2
Sales / Month
16.5
Velocity Score
83/100
Fast-moving
Sales Velocity 30d
+25.8%
Confidence
80/100

Grading ROI & Population Trend

Is it worth paying to grade this card? A transparent profit model from the real ungraded cost and the audited graded value, plus a read on graded-supply momentum. The cost and odds levers are modeled assumptions you can adjust — not market-price pins.

Grading ROI (model)
+3.5%
Marginal grading ROI
unknown population

No population data reported for this asset.

Raw cost
$3,342
All-in cost
$3,371+ $25.00 fee · $4.00 ship
Graded value (per gem)
$13,369
Expected proceeds
$3,48930% gem → $4,011 · less 13% fee
Net profit / card
$118
Breakeven graded value
$12,917value needed to break even

Adjust modeled assumptions

These are modeled estimates, not market-price pins.

  • Modeled gem-grade odds: 30% chance of PSA 10 (a modeled probability, not a market price). Non-gem outcomes are valued conservatively at $0.
  • Modeled grading-service fee: $25.00 per card, plus $4.00 shipping/insurance (modeled service costs, not market prices).
  • Modeled marketplace sell fee: 13.0% of graded proceeds (a modeled cost, not a market price).
  • Raw cost and graded value trace to the existing audited references/pins — this panel authors no new market-price value.

Liquidity & Comp Explorer

How easily does this asset trade? Days-to-sell, sell-through rate, the spread between the lowest ask and the recent sold center, and inventory depth — all modeled over this asset's recorded sales and active listings. Explore the sale distribution with a date-range filter and an outlier-trim toggle.

Liquidity & Comp Explorer

Simulated
Days to sell
0.8dmodeled median sale gap
Sell-through
90.0%over 90d window
Bid-ask spread
-4.5%lowest ask vs sold avg
Inventory depth
2active listings
Recent sold avg
$166mean over 90d
Lowest ask
$159cheapest active listing

Comp Explorer

Min
$146
Median
$168
Mean
$168
Max
$189

Showing 26 of 27 sales · 1 outlier trimmed

These liquidity signals are modeled deterministically over this asset's existing recorded sales and active listings — they author no new market-price value. Days-to-sell, sell-through and the bid-ask spread are analytical reads over those comps, not a live order book.

How Fair Value Is Built

A transparent, weighted blend of market signals — no black boxes.

SignalDetailReferenceWeight
recent salesVolume-weighted average of recent sold comps2938.3250%
listing inventoryAverage of active listing asking prices3344.3425%
price trendRecent historical price trend projection2922.2825%
demand momentumAdjustment for sales velocity momentum (rising demand raises value)5.1620%

Active Listings

PriceMarketplaceConditionSellerListedEndsLink
$159TCGPlayerNear Mint9169d agoJan 1View
$190MercariNear Mint8475d agoJan 1View

Recent Sales

PriceMarketplaceConditionSold
$174MercariNear Mint57d ago
$164eBayNear Mint64d ago
$175eBayNear Mint65d ago
$163MercariNear Mint66d ago
$163eBayNear Mint67d ago
$170PWCCNear Mint77d ago
$178Facebook MarketplaceNear Mint78d ago
$178Facebook MarketplaceNear Mint79d ago
$167eBayNear Mint80d ago
$158Facebook MarketplaceNear Mint80d ago
$148PWCCNear Mint80d ago
$170Facebook MarketplaceNear Mint80d ago

Signal Track Record

Did this asset's own Opportunity Scores precede outperformance? Each row is a past as-of date, scored point-in-time, with the realized benchmark-relative return that followed.

Data Provenance

Which signals on this page are real market data versus modeled by the deterministic engine. The terminal marks every source honestly.

Reference price
Simulated
Fair value basis
Simulated
Lowest ask (deal)
Simulated
Active listings
Simulated
Card image
Live
Recent sales
Simulated
Population data
Simulated
Liquidity metrics
Simulated
Liquidity analytics
Simulated
Price history
Simulated

Related Assets

Same character or set.

AssetFair ValueLowestDiscount30dAvailScore
Pikachu (Illustrator-style) — Scarlet & Violet 151 — Special Illustration Rare
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  • Low active inventory+9 pts
  • High listing quality (graded)+6 pts
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  • Low active inventory+7 pts
  • High listing quality (near mint)+6 pts
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Scarlet & Violet 151 Booster Box — Scarlet & Violet 151 — Sealed
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  • 9% below fair value+11 pts
  • High valuation confidence+7 pts
  • High listing quality (sealed)+6 pts
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Blastoise ex — Scarlet & Violet 151 — Double Rare
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  • 6% below fair value+7 pts
  • High valuation confidence+6 pts
  • High listing quality (near mint)+6 pts
eBay activeeBay soldTCGplayer active
$486$4585.9%▼28.2%1229
Blastoise ex — Scarlet & Violet 151 — Double Rare
Blastoise exScarlet & Violet 151Simulated
  • 17% below fair value+20 pts
  • High valuation confidence+6 pts
  • High listing quality (near mint)+6 pts
eBay activeeBay soldTCGplayer active
$462$38317.2%▲3.1%554
Charmeleon — Scarlet & Violet 151 — Uncommon
CharmeleonScarlet & Violet 151Simulated
  • High valuation confidence+7 pts
  • High listing quality (near mint)+6 pts
  • 5% below fair value+6 pts
eBay activeeBay soldTCGplayer active
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