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Blastoise ex — Scarlet & Violet 151 — Double Rare

Blastoise ex

Simulated

Blastoise ex · Scarlet & Violet 151 · Double Rare · 9

Character: Blastoise

high confidencebullish6730d ▲3.1%
Estimated Fair Value
$462
Lowest listing $38317.2% below
Search live listings:eBay activeeBay soldTCGplayer active
Bear Case
$397
Base Case
$462
Bull Case
$527

Price History

Dec 8Range $99.20 – $141Jun 5

Opportunity Score

54
  • 17% below fair value+20 pts
  • High valuation confidence+6 pts
  • High listing quality (near mint)+6 pts
  • Reputable seller+6 pts
  • Sales accelerating+6 pts
  • Low active inventory+5 pts
  • Strong demand (13 sales/mo)+4 pts
  • Price up 3% over 30 days+1 pts

Investment Thesis

bullish67

Blastoise ex is currently trading at a meaningful discount to fair value, with stable price momentum over the last 30 days (+3.1%). Estimated fair value is $462 against a lowest active listing of $383. Valuation confidence is high based on 5-plus modeled comparable sales.

Bullish: flat 30-day price action with healthy trading velocity and stable graded supply.

Active Listings
5
Sales / Month
13.0
Velocity Score
65/100
Fast-moving
Sales Velocity 30d
+14.1%
Confidence
87/100

Grading ROI & Population Trend

Is it worth paying to grade this card? A transparent profit model from the real ungraded cost and the audited graded value, plus a read on graded-supply momentum. The cost and odds levers are modeled assumptions you can adjust — not market-price pins.

Grading ROI (model)
-3.0%
Grading not economical
unknown population

No population data reported for this asset.

Raw cost
$383
All-in cost
$412+ $25.00 fee · $4.00 ship
Graded value (per gem)
$1,530
Expected proceeds
$39930% gem → $459 · less 13% fee
Net profit / card
-$12.17
Breakeven graded value
$1,577value needed to break even

Adjust modeled assumptions

These are modeled estimates, not market-price pins.

  • Modeled gem-grade odds: 30% chance of PSA 10 (a modeled probability, not a market price). Non-gem outcomes are valued conservatively at $0.
  • Modeled grading-service fee: $25.00 per card, plus $4.00 shipping/insurance (modeled service costs, not market prices).
  • Modeled marketplace sell fee: 13.0% of graded proceeds (a modeled cost, not a market price).
  • Raw cost and graded value trace to the existing audited references/pins — this panel authors no new market-price value.

Liquidity & Comp Explorer

How easily does this asset trade? Days-to-sell, sell-through rate, the spread between the lowest ask and the recent sold center, and inventory depth — all modeled over this asset's recorded sales and active listings. Explore the sale distribution with a date-range filter and an outlier-trim toggle.

Liquidity & Comp Explorer

Simulated
Days to sell
1.8dmodeled median sale gap
Sell-through
30.0%over 90d window
Bid-ask spread
-8.6%lowest ask vs sold avg
Inventory depth
23active listings
Recent sold avg
$121mean over 90d
Lowest ask
$111cheapest active listing

Comp Explorer

Min
$113
Median
$124
Mean
$129
Max
$147

Showing 17 of 17 sales

These liquidity signals are modeled deterministically over this asset's existing recorded sales and active listings — they author no new market-price value. Days-to-sell, sell-through and the bid-ask spread are analytical reads over those comps, not a live order book.

How Fair Value Is Built

A transparent, weighted blend of market signals — no black boxes.

SignalDetailReferenceWeight
recent salesVolume-weighted average of recent sold comps459.0450%
listing inventoryAverage of active listing asking prices418.8825%
price trendRecent historical price trend projection459.5725%
demand momentumAdjustment for sales velocity momentum (rising demand raises value)2.8120%

Active Listings

PriceMarketplaceConditionSellerListedEndsLink
$111eBayNear Mint7362d agoJan 1View
$113Facebook MarketplaceNear Mint7357d agoJan 1View
$113Facebook MarketplaceNear Mint9575d agoJun 10View
$115PWCCNear Mint8668d agoJan 1View
$115eBayNear Mint7969d agoJan 1View
$117Facebook MarketplaceNear Mint6464d agoJan 1View
$122PWCCNear Mint6260d agoJun 6View
$125TCGPlayerNear Mint6155d agoJan 1View
$129MercariNear Mint8065d agoJun 9View
$129MercariNear Mint6367d agoJan 1View
$129MercariNear Mint7866d agoJan 1View
$130TCGPlayerNear Mint9975d agoJan 1View

Recent Sales

PriceMarketplaceConditionSold
$124TCGPlayerNear Mint57d ago
$124Facebook MarketplaceNear Mint58d ago
$116MercariNear Mint58d ago
$125PWCCNear Mint60d ago
$121PWCCNear Mint62d ago
$130MercariNear Mint76d ago
$124eBayNear Mint80d ago
$124TCGPlayerNear Mint81d ago
$115Facebook MarketplaceNear Mint83d ago
$113PWCCNear Mint88d ago
$146eBayNear Mint92d ago
$140eBayNear Mint95d ago

Signal Track Record

Did this asset's own Opportunity Scores precede outperformance? Each row is a past as-of date, scored point-in-time, with the realized benchmark-relative return that followed.

Data Provenance

Which signals on this page are real market data versus modeled by the deterministic engine. The terminal marks every source honestly.

Reference price
Simulated
Fair value basis
Simulated
Lowest ask (deal)
Simulated
Active listings
Simulated
Card image
Live
Recent sales
Simulated
Population data
Simulated
Liquidity metrics
Simulated
Liquidity analytics
Simulated
Price history
Simulated

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  • High valuation confidence+6 pts
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  • Low active inventory+9 pts
  • Population growth slowing+8 pts
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