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Dec 2Range $378 – $532May 30
Estimated Fair Value
$520
Lowest listing $44614.2% below
Bear Case
$442
Base Case
$520
Bull Case
$596
Price History
Opportunity Score
41- 14% below fair value+17 pts
- Reputable seller+7 pts
- High listing quality (near mint)+6 pts
- Sales accelerating+4 pts
- High valuation confidence+4 pts
- Low active inventory+3 pts
Investment Thesis
neutral41Lugia Promo is currently modestly undervalued, with softening price momentum over the last 30 days (-5.2%). Estimated fair value is $520 against a lowest active listing of $446. Valuation confidence is medium based on 7-plus recent comparable sales.
Neutral: softening prices (-5.2% over 30d) with thin liquidity and stable graded supply.
Active Listings
7
Sales / Month
3.0
Velocity Score
15/100
Illiquid
Sales Velocity 30d
+10.9%
Confidence
55/100
How Fair Value Is Built
A transparent, weighted blend of market signals — no black boxes.
| Signal | Detail | Reference | Weight |
|---|---|---|---|
| recent sales | Volume-weighted average of recent sold comps | 525.75 | 50% |
| listing inventory | Average of active listing asking prices | 510.35 | 25% |
| price trend | Recent historical price trend projection | 474.67 | 25% |
| demand momentum | Adjustment for sales velocity momentum (rising demand raises value) | 2.19 | 20% |
Active Listings
| Price | Marketplace | Condition | Seller | Listed | Ends | Link |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| $426 | Facebook Marketplace | Near Mint | 95 | 14d ago | Jan 1 | View |
| $428 | PWCC | Near Mint | 75 | 7d ago | Jan 1 | View |
| $438 | Mercari | Near Mint | 98 | 2d ago | Jun 3 | View |
| $447 | PWCC | Near Mint | 87 | 4d ago | Jun 3 | View |
| $452 | Facebook Marketplace | Near Mint | 82 | 21d ago | Jan 1 | View |
| $467 | PWCC | Near Mint | 63 | 15d ago | Jan 1 | View |
| $473 | Mercari | Near Mint | 90 | 3d ago | Jan 1 | View |
| $475 | TCGPlayer | Near Mint | 64 | 21d ago | Jan 1 | View |
| $476 | TCGPlayer | Near Mint | 85 | 14d ago | Jan 1 | View |
| $477 | Facebook Marketplace | Near Mint | 83 | 6d ago | Jan 1 | View |
| $478 | Facebook Marketplace | Near Mint | 92 | 14d ago | Jun 4 | View |
| $492 | PWCC | Near Mint | 69 | 16d ago | Jan 1 | View |
Recent Sales
| Price | Marketplace | Condition | Sold |
|---|---|---|---|
| $482 | Facebook Marketplace | Near Mint | 12h ago |
| $425 | Facebook Marketplace | Near Mint | 4d ago |
| $484 | Mercari | Near Mint | 8d ago |
| $423 | Facebook Marketplace | Near Mint | 13d ago |
| $420 | PWCC | Near Mint | 14d ago |
| $479 | eBay | Near Mint | 18d ago |
| $474 | TCGPlayer | Near Mint | 20d ago |
| $443 | Mercari | Near Mint | 21d ago |
| $419 | TCGPlayer | Near Mint | 22d ago |
| $404 | TCGPlayer | Near Mint | 25d ago |
| $452 | PWCC | Near Mint | 30d ago |
| $543 | Mercari | Near Mint | 32d ago |
Signal Track Record
Did this asset's own Opportunity Scores precede outperformance? Each row is a past as-of date, scored point-in-time, with the realized benchmark-relative return that followed.
Data Provenance
Which signals on this page are real market data versus modeled by the deterministic engine. The terminal marks every source honestly.
- Reference price
- Simulated
- Card image
- Simulated
- Recent sales
- Simulated
- Population data
- Simulated
- Liquidity metrics
- Simulated
- Price history
- Simulated
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