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Blastoise ex — Scarlet & Violet 151 — Double Rare

Blastoise ex

Simulated

Blastoise ex · Scarlet & Violet 151 · Double Rare · 9

Character: Blastoise

high confidencebearish2230d 25.8%
Estimated Fair Value
$544
Lowest listing $45915.6% below
Search live listings:eBay activeeBay soldTCGplayer active
Bear Case
$434
Base Case
$544
Bull Case
$644

Price History

Dec 8Range $87.98 – $117Jun 5

Opportunity Score

48
  • 16% below fair value+18 pts
  • Sales accelerating+8 pts
  • High valuation confidence+7 pts
  • Reputable seller+6 pts
  • High listing quality (near mint)+6 pts
  • Strong demand (9 sales/mo)+3 pts

Investment Thesis

bearish22

Blastoise ex is currently trading at a meaningful discount to fair value, with softening price momentum over the last 30 days (-25.8%). Estimated fair value is $544 against a lowest active listing of $459. Valuation confidence is high based on 13-plus modeled comparable sales.

Bearish: softening prices (-25.8% over 30d) amid thin liquidity and stable graded supply.

Risk Indicators

  • Negative price momentum over the last 30 days
Active Listings
13
Sales / Month
9.0
Velocity Score
45/100
Moderate
Sales Velocity 30d
+21.0%
Confidence
94/100

Grading ROI & Population Trend

Is it worth paying to grade this card? A transparent profit model from the real ungraded cost and the audited graded value, plus a read on graded-supply momentum. The cost and odds levers are modeled assumptions you can adjust — not market-price pins.

Grading ROI (model)
-1.8%
Grading not economical
unknown population

No population data reported for this asset.

Raw cost
$459
All-in cost
$488+ $25.00 fee · $4.00 ship
Graded value (per gem)
$1,835
Expected proceeds
$47930% gem → $550 · less 13% fee
Net profit / card
-$8.82
Breakeven graded value
$1,869value needed to break even

Adjust modeled assumptions

These are modeled estimates, not market-price pins.

  • Modeled gem-grade odds: 30% chance of PSA 10 (a modeled probability, not a market price). Non-gem outcomes are valued conservatively at $0.
  • Modeled grading-service fee: $25.00 per card, plus $4.00 shipping/insurance (modeled service costs, not market prices).
  • Modeled marketplace sell fee: 13.0% of graded proceeds (a modeled cost, not a market price).
  • Raw cost and graded value trace to the existing audited references/pins — this panel authors no new market-price value.

Liquidity & Comp Explorer

How easily does this asset trade? Days-to-sell, sell-through rate, the spread between the lowest ask and the recent sold center, and inventory depth — all modeled over this asset's recorded sales and active listings. Explore the sale distribution with a date-range filter and an outlier-trim toggle.

Liquidity & Comp Explorer

Simulated
Days to sell
3.1dmodeled median sale gap
Sell-through
22.0%over 90d window
Bid-ask spread
-12.7%lowest ask vs sold avg
Inventory depth
18active listings
Recent sold avg
$110mean over 90d
Lowest ask
$95.97cheapest active listing

Comp Explorer

Min
$90.82
Median
$103
Mean
$106
Max
$120

Showing 9 of 9 sales

These liquidity signals are modeled deterministically over this asset's existing recorded sales and active listings — they author no new market-price value. Days-to-sell, sell-through and the bid-ask spread are analytical reads over those comps, not a live order book.

How Fair Value Is Built

A transparent, weighted blend of market signals — no black boxes.

SignalDetailReferenceWeight
recent salesVolume-weighted average of recent sold comps579.2550%
listing inventoryAverage of active listing asking prices527.9425%
price trendRecent historical price trend projection399.9625%
demand momentumAdjustment for sales velocity momentum (rising demand raises value)4.2120%

Active Listings

PriceMarketplaceConditionSellerListedEndsLink
$95.97Facebook MarketplaceNear Mint7970d agoJan 1View
$99.88Facebook MarketplaceNear Mint7267d agoJan 1View
$104MercariNear Mint6469d agoJan 1View
$106MercariNear Mint7071d agoJun 6View
$112MercariNear Mint9558d agoJan 1View
$112eBayNear Mint8374d agoJan 1View
$113eBayNear Mint9061d agoJan 1View
$114eBayNear Mint8571d agoJan 1View
$115MercariNear Mint6775d agoJan 1View
$118MercariNear Mint7975d agoJan 1View
$118eBayNear Mint6667d agoJan 1View
$120TCGPlayerNear Mint8375d agoJun 6View

Recent Sales

PriceMarketplaceConditionSold
$113eBayNear Mint68d ago
$120TCGPlayerNear Mint80d ago
$103TCGPlayerNear Mint81d ago
$115TCGPlayerNear Mint82d ago
$99.21Facebook MarketplaceNear Mint87d ago
$116PWCCNear Mint96d ago
$90.82TCGPlayerNear Mint106d ago
$93.13MercariNear Mint108d ago
$102PWCCNear Mint113d ago

Signal Track Record

Did this asset's own Opportunity Scores precede outperformance? Each row is a past as-of date, scored point-in-time, with the realized benchmark-relative return that followed.

Data Provenance

Which signals on this page are real market data versus modeled by the deterministic engine. The terminal marks every source honestly.

Reference price
Simulated
Fair value basis
Simulated
Lowest ask (deal)
Simulated
Active listings
Simulated
Card image
Live
Recent sales
Simulated
Population data
Simulated
Liquidity metrics
Simulated
Liquidity analytics
Simulated
Price history
Simulated

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