Price History
Opportunity Score
57- 14% below fair value+16 pts
- Sales accelerating+11 pts
- Low active inventory+8 pts
- Reputable seller+7 pts
- High listing quality (near mint)+6 pts
- High valuation confidence+6 pts
- Strong demand (10 sales/mo)+3 pts
Investment Thesis
bearish30Pikachu is currently modestly undervalued, with softening price momentum over the last 30 days (-12.6%). Estimated fair value is $52693 against a lowest active listing of $45314. Valuation confidence is high based on 2-plus modeled comparable sales.
Bearish: softening prices (-12.6% over 30d) amid healthy trading velocity and stable graded supply.
Risk Indicators
- Thin liquidity — few active listings, wider spreads likely
- Negative price momentum over the last 30 days
Grading ROI & Population Trend
Is it worth paying to grade this card? A transparent profit model from the real ungraded cost and the audited graded value, plus a read on graded-supply momentum. The cost and odds levers are modeled assumptions you can adjust — not market-price pins.
No population data reported for this asset.
- Raw cost
- $45,314
- All-in cost
- $45,343+ $25.00 fee · $4.00 ship
- Graded value (per gem)
- $181,256
- Expected proceeds
- $47,30830% gem → $54,377 · less 13% fee
- Net profit / card
- $1,965
- Breakeven graded value
- $173,728value needed to break even
Adjust modeled assumptions
These are modeled estimates, not market-price pins.
- Modeled gem-grade odds: 30% chance of PSA 10 (a modeled probability, not a market price). Non-gem outcomes are valued conservatively at $0.
- Modeled grading-service fee: $25.00 per card, plus $4.00 shipping/insurance (modeled service costs, not market prices).
- Modeled marketplace sell fee: 13.0% of graded proceeds (a modeled cost, not a market price).
- Raw cost and graded value trace to the existing audited references/pins — this panel authors no new market-price value.
Liquidity & Comp Explorer
How easily does this asset trade? Days-to-sell, sell-through rate, the spread between the lowest ask and the recent sold center, and inventory depth — all modeled over this asset's recorded sales and active listings. Explore the sale distribution with a date-range filter and an outlier-trim toggle.
Liquidity & Comp Explorer
- Days to sell
- 1.5dmodeled median sale gap
- Sell-through
- 69.0%over 90d window
- Bid-ask spread
- -13.7%lowest ask vs sold avg
- Inventory depth
- 5active listings
- Recent sold avg
- $697mean over 90d
- Lowest ask
- $601cheapest active listing
Comp Explorer
- Min
- $599
- Median
- $688
- Mean
- $700
- Max
- $834
Showing 22 of 22 sales
These liquidity signals are modeled deterministically over this asset's existing recorded sales and active listings — they author no new market-price value. Days-to-sell, sell-through and the bid-ask spread are analytical reads over those comps, not a live order book.
How Fair Value Is Built
A transparent, weighted blend of market signals — no black boxes.
| Signal | Detail | Reference | Weight |
|---|---|---|---|
| recent sales | Volume-weighted average of recent sold comps | 52451.58 | 50% |
| listing inventory | Average of active listing asking prices | 48347.88 | 25% |
| price trend | Recent historical price trend projection | 46498.31 | 25% |
| demand momentum | Adjustment for sales velocity momentum (rising demand raises value) | 5.52 | 20% |
Active Listings
Recent Sales
| Price | Marketplace | Condition | Sold |
|---|---|---|---|
| $651 | Mercari | Near Mint | 63d ago |
| $641 | TCGPlayer | Near Mint | 65d ago |
| $687 | Mercari | Near Mint | 67d ago |
| $756 | eBay | Near Mint | 68d ago |
| $673 | Facebook Marketplace | Near Mint | 69d ago |
| $735 | TCGPlayer | Near Mint | 77d ago |
| $756 | Mercari | Near Mint | 78d ago |
| $678 | Mercari | Near Mint | 81d ago |
| $672 | Mercari | Near Mint | 83d ago |
| $767 | TCGPlayer | Near Mint | 84d ago |
| $645 | eBay | Near Mint | 87d ago |
| $599 | PWCC | Near Mint | 91d ago |
Signal Track Record
Did this asset's own Opportunity Scores precede outperformance? Each row is a past as-of date, scored point-in-time, with the realized benchmark-relative return that followed.
Data Provenance
Which signals on this page are real market data versus modeled by the deterministic engine. The terminal marks every source honestly.
- Reference price
- Simulated
- Fair value basis
- Simulated
- Lowest ask (deal)
- Simulated
- Active listings
- Simulated
- Card image
- Live
- Recent sales
- Simulated
- Population data
- Simulated
- Liquidity metrics
- Simulated
- Liquidity analytics
- Simulated
- Price history
- Simulated
Related Assets
Same character or set.
| Asset | Fair Value | Lowest | Discount | 30d | Avail | Score |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
 Pikachu (Illustrator-style)Scarlet & Violet 151PSA 10Live-anchoredReal askas of Jun 4 · 56d oldsold-comp center2nd source (tcgcsv): $97.89 · sales-derived, ungradedView $82.96 · TCGPlayer
| $561 | $472 | 15.9% | 8.9% | 1 | 53 |
 SnorlaxJunglePSA 10Live-anchoredReal askas of Jun 4 · 56d oldsold-comp center2nd source (tcgcsv): $136 · sales-derived, ungradedView $72.75 · TCGPlayer
| $274 | $172 | 37.4% | 13.3% | 1 | 72 |
SnorlaxJungleSimulated
| $11,219 | $9,732 | 13.3% | 0.6% | 17 | 45 |
 PikachuScarlet & Violet 151Simulated
| $2,902 | $2,658 | 8.4% | 34.3% | 4 | 51 |
 PrimeapeJungleSimulated
| $164 | $148 | 9.8% | 2.9% | 13 | 36 |
 VictreebelJungleSimulated
| $196 | $187 | 4.7% | 6.1% | 2 | 33 |