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Charmeleon — Scarlet & Violet 151 — Uncommon

Charmeleon

Simulated

Charmeleon · Scarlet & Violet 151 · Uncommon · 5

Character: Charmeleon

high confidenceneutral4230d 8.8%
Estimated Fair Value
$112
Lowest listing $1065.0% below
Search live listings:eBay activeeBay soldTCGplayer active
Bear Case
$90.24
Base Case
$112
Bull Case
$132

Price History

Dec 8Range $54.64 – $115Jun 5

Opportunity Score

30
  • High valuation confidence+7 pts
  • High listing quality (near mint)+6 pts
  • 5% below fair value+6 pts
  • Reputable seller+6 pts
  • Strong demand (15 sales/mo)+5 pts
  • Sales accelerating+1 pts

Investment Thesis

neutral42

Charmeleon is currently fairly valued, with softening price momentum over the last 30 days (-8.8%). Estimated fair value is $112 against a lowest active listing of $106. Valuation confidence is high based on 17-plus modeled comparable sales.

Neutral: softening prices (-8.8% over 30d) with healthy trading velocity and stable graded supply.

Active Listings
17
Sales / Month
15.0
Velocity Score
75/100
Fast-moving
Sales Velocity 30d
+2.8%
Confidence
94/100

Grading ROI & Population Trend

Is it worth paying to grade this card? A transparent profit model from the real ungraded cost and the audited graded value, plus a read on graded-supply momentum. The cost and odds levers are modeled assumptions you can adjust — not market-price pins.

Grading ROI (model)
-18.0%
Grading not economical
unknown population

No population data reported for this asset.

Raw cost
$106
All-in cost
$135+ $25.00 fee · $4.00 ship
Graded value (per gem)
$425
Expected proceeds
$11130% gem → $127 · less 13% fee
Net profit / card
-$24.33
Breakeven graded value
$518value needed to break even

Adjust modeled assumptions

These are modeled estimates, not market-price pins.

  • Modeled gem-grade odds: 30% chance of PSA 10 (a modeled probability, not a market price). Non-gem outcomes are valued conservatively at $0.
  • Modeled grading-service fee: $25.00 per card, plus $4.00 shipping/insurance (modeled service costs, not market prices).
  • Modeled marketplace sell fee: 13.0% of graded proceeds (a modeled cost, not a market price).
  • Raw cost and graded value trace to the existing audited references/pins — this panel authors no new market-price value.

Liquidity & Comp Explorer

How easily does this asset trade? Days-to-sell, sell-through rate, the spread between the lowest ask and the recent sold center, and inventory depth — all modeled over this asset's recorded sales and active listings. Explore the sale distribution with a date-range filter and an outlier-trim toggle.

Liquidity & Comp Explorer

Simulated
Days to sell
2.9dmodeled median sale gap
Sell-through
33.0%over 90d window
Bid-ask spread
-16.1%lowest ask vs sold avg
Inventory depth
16active listings
Recent sold avg
$66.73mean over 90d
Lowest ask
$55.97cheapest active listing

Comp Explorer

Min
$59.65
Median
$65.82
Mean
$66.13
Max
$74.74

Showing 18 of 20 sales · 2 outliers trimmed

These liquidity signals are modeled deterministically over this asset's existing recorded sales and active listings — they author no new market-price value. Days-to-sell, sell-through and the bid-ask spread are analytical reads over those comps, not a live order book.

How Fair Value Is Built

A transparent, weighted blend of market signals — no black boxes.

SignalDetailReferenceWeight
recent salesVolume-weighted average of recent sold comps111.9950%
listing inventoryAverage of active listing asking prices118.7525%
price trendRecent historical price trend projection101.5325%
demand momentumAdjustment for sales velocity momentum (rising demand raises value)0.5520%

Active Listings

PriceMarketplaceConditionSellerListedEndsLink
$55.97eBayNear Mint9166d agoJan 1View
$56.48PWCCNear Mint9169d agoJan 1View
$58.88MercariNear Mint6664d agoJun 6View
$59.83TCGPlayerNear Mint6765d agoJan 1View
$60.68Facebook MarketplaceNear Mint8367d agoJun 7View
$60.93TCGPlayerNear Mint7765d agoJan 1View
$64.24eBayNear Mint8367d agoJan 1View
$64.62PWCCNear Mint9566d agoJun 10View
$66.32Facebook MarketplaceNear Mint9775d agoJun 8View
$66.44Facebook MarketplaceNear Mint9257d agoJan 1View
$66.76Facebook MarketplaceNear Mint9372d agoJan 1View
$67.07Facebook MarketplaceNear Mint8769d agoJan 1View

Recent Sales

PriceMarketplaceConditionSold
$60.60Facebook MarketplaceNear Mint57d ago
$63.82TCGPlayerNear Mint62d ago
$59.76PWCCNear Mint64d ago
$64.37MercariNear Mint66d ago
$74.74eBayNear Mint75d ago
$65.26MercariNear Mint78d ago
$68.46PWCCNear Mint87d ago
$76.86MercariNear Mint88d ago
$67.79eBayNear Mint90d ago
$66.28PWCCNear Mint92d ago
$59.65TCGPlayerNear Mint95d ago
$63.42PWCCNear Mint95d ago

Signal Track Record

Did this asset's own Opportunity Scores precede outperformance? Each row is a past as-of date, scored point-in-time, with the realized benchmark-relative return that followed.

Data Provenance

Which signals on this page are real market data versus modeled by the deterministic engine. The terminal marks every source honestly.

Reference price
Simulated
Fair value basis
Simulated
Lowest ask (deal)
Simulated
Active listings
Simulated
Card image
Live
Recent sales
Simulated
Population data
Simulated
Liquidity metrics
Simulated
Liquidity analytics
Simulated
Price history
Simulated

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