Charizard
BGS 9.5SimulatedCharizard · XY Evolutions · Rare Holo · 11
Character: Charizard
Price History
Opportunity Score
39- High valuation confidence+7 pts
- High listing quality (graded)+6 pts
- Population growth slowing+6 pts
- Reputable seller+5 pts
- 4% below fair value+5 pts
- Price up 11% over 30 days+4 pts
- Strong demand (12 sales/mo)+4 pts
- Low active inventory+2 pts
Investment Thesis
bullish81Charizard (BGS 9.5) is currently fairly valued, with rising price momentum over the last 30 days (+10.7%). Estimated fair value is $62447 against a lowest active listing of $59821. Valuation confidence is high based on 8-plus modeled comparable sales.
Bullish: rising prices (+10.7% over 30d) with healthy trading velocity and stable graded supply.
Grading ROI & Population Trend
Is it worth paying to grade this card? A transparent profit model from the real ungraded cost and the audited graded value, plus a read on graded-supply momentum. The cost and odds levers are modeled assumptions you can adjust — not market-price pins.
Population growth slowing to 0.7%/mo — supply tightening across 2417 graded.
2,417 graded · 40% gem · +0.7%/mo
- Raw cost
- $59,821
- All-in cost
- $59,850+ $25.00 fee · $4.00 ship
- Graded value (per gem)
- $62,447
- Expected proceeds
- $16,29930% gem → $18,734 · less 13% fee
- Net profit / card
- -$43,551.53
- Breakeven graded value
- $229,312value needed to break even
Adjust modeled assumptions
These are modeled estimates, not market-price pins.
- Modeled gem-grade odds: 30% chance of BGS 9.5 (a modeled probability, not a market price). Non-gem outcomes are valued conservatively at $0.
- Modeled grading-service fee: $25.00 per card, plus $4.00 shipping/insurance (modeled service costs, not market prices).
- Modeled marketplace sell fee: 13.0% of graded proceeds (a modeled cost, not a market price).
- Raw cost and graded value trace to the existing audited references/pins — this panel authors no new market-price value.
Liquidity & Comp Explorer
How easily does this asset trade? Days-to-sell, sell-through rate, the spread between the lowest ask and the recent sold center, and inventory depth — all modeled over this asset's recorded sales and active listings. Explore the sale distribution with a date-range filter and an outlier-trim toggle.
Liquidity & Comp Explorer
- Days to sell
- 1.4dmodeled median sale gap
- Sell-through
- 91.0%over 90d window
- Bid-ask spread
- +4.9%lowest ask vs sold avg
- Inventory depth
- 2active listings
- Recent sold avg
- $461mean over 90d
- Lowest ask
- $483cheapest active listing
Comp Explorer
- Min
- $426
- Median
- $477
- Mean
- $477
- Max
- $533
Showing 39 of 39 sales
These liquidity signals are modeled deterministically over this asset's existing recorded sales and active listings — they author no new market-price value. Days-to-sell, sell-through and the bid-ask spread are analytical reads over those comps, not a live order book.
How Fair Value Is Built
A transparent, weighted blend of market signals — no black boxes.
| Signal | Detail | Reference | Weight |
|---|---|---|---|
| recent sales | Volume-weighted average of recent sold comps | 60231.45 | 50% |
| listing inventory | Average of active listing asking prices | 69250.94 | 25% |
| price trend | Recent historical price trend projection | 61468.07 | 25% |
| population pressure | Adjustment for grading population growth (more supply lowers value) | -0.72 | 50% |
| demand momentum | Adjustment for sales velocity momentum (rising demand raises value) | 0.17 | 20% |
Active Listings
Recent Sales
| Price | Marketplace | Condition | Sold |
|---|---|---|---|
| $433 | TCGPlayer | Graded | 56d ago |
| $483 | PWCC | Graded | 57d ago |
| $452 | PWCC | Graded | 63d ago |
| $468 | PWCC | Graded | 64d ago |
| $500 | Facebook Marketplace | Graded | 69d ago |
| $433 | Facebook Marketplace | Graded | 69d ago |
| $440 | TCGPlayer | Graded | 71d ago |
| $451 | PWCC | Graded | 72d ago |
| $466 | TCGPlayer | Graded | 73d ago |
| $463 | Facebook Marketplace | Graded | 73d ago |
| $427 | Mercari | Graded | 76d ago |
| $496 | Facebook Marketplace | Graded | 77d ago |
Signal Track Record
Did this asset's own Opportunity Scores precede outperformance? Each row is a past as-of date, scored point-in-time, with the realized benchmark-relative return that followed.
Data Provenance
Which signals on this page are real market data versus modeled by the deterministic engine. The terminal marks every source honestly.
- Reference price
- Simulated
- Fair value basis
- Simulated
- Lowest ask (deal)
- Simulated
- Active listings
- Simulated
- Card image
- Live
- Recent sales
- Simulated
- Population data
- Simulated
- Liquidity metrics
- Simulated
- Liquidity analytics
- Simulated
- Price history
- Simulated
Related Assets
Same character or set.
| Asset | Fair Value | Lowest | Discount | 30d | Avail | Score |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
 Charizard GX (Shiny)Hidden FatesPSA 10Live-anchoredReal askas of Jun 4 · 56d oldsold-comp center2nd source (tcgcsv): $660 · sales-derived, ungradedView $550 · TCGPlayer
| $1,683 | $1,408 | 16.3% | 3.4% | 1 | 53 |
 Base ZardBase SetPSA 10Live-anchoredReal askas of Jun 4 · 56d oldsold-comp center2nd source (tcgcsv): $572 · sales-derived, ungradedView $499 · TCGPlayer
| $4,445 | $3,927 | 11.6% | 8.7% | 1 | 48 |
 Mewtwo-EXXY EvolutionsSimulated
| $2,870 | $2,664 | 7.2% | 15.2% | 17 | 41 |
 MewtwoXY EvolutionsSimulated
| $2,395 | $2,156 | 10.0% | 35.1% | 10 | 44 |
Mewtwo-EXXY EvolutionsBGS 9.5Simulated
| $3,237 | $3,063 | 5.4% | 17.4% | 13 | 52 |
 Blastoise-EXXY EvolutionsSimulated
| $1,221 | $1,017 | 16.8% | 2.0% | 17 | 42 |