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Gyarados — Base Set — Rare Holo

Gyarados

Simulated

Gyarados · Base Set · Rare Holo · 6

Character: Gyarados

high confidenceneutral4230d 6.4%
Estimated Fair Value
$1,208
Lowest listing $1,03614.3% below
Search live listings:eBay activeeBay soldTCGplayer active
Bear Case
$1,039
Base Case
$1,208
Bull Case
$1,374

Price History

Dec 8Range $368 – $533Jun 5

Opportunity Score

44
  • 14% below fair value+17 pts
  • Reputable seller+7 pts
  • High valuation confidence+7 pts
  • High listing quality (near mint)+6 pts
  • Sales accelerating+3 pts
  • Strong demand (8 sales/mo)+2 pts
  • Low active inventory+2 pts

Investment Thesis

neutral42

Gyarados is currently modestly undervalued, with softening price momentum over the last 30 days (-6.4%). Estimated fair value is $1208 against a lowest active listing of $1036. Valuation confidence is high based on 8-plus modeled comparable sales.

Neutral: softening prices (-6.4% over 30d) with thin liquidity and stable graded supply.

Active Listings
8
Sales / Month
8.0
Velocity Score
40/100
Moderate
Sales Velocity 30d
+7.5%
Confidence
94/100

Grading ROI & Population Trend

Is it worth paying to grade this card? A transparent profit model from the real ungraded cost and the audited graded value, plus a read on graded-supply momentum. The cost and odds levers are modeled assumptions you can adjust — not market-price pins.

Grading ROI (model)
+1.6%
Marginal grading ROI
unknown population

No population data reported for this asset.

Raw cost
$1,036
All-in cost
$1,065+ $25.00 fee · $4.00 ship
Graded value (per gem)
$4,143
Expected proceeds
$1,08130% gem → $1,243 · less 13% fee
Net profit / card
$16.58
Breakeven graded value
$4,080value needed to break even

Adjust modeled assumptions

These are modeled estimates, not market-price pins.

  • Modeled gem-grade odds: 30% chance of PSA 10 (a modeled probability, not a market price). Non-gem outcomes are valued conservatively at $0.
  • Modeled grading-service fee: $25.00 per card, plus $4.00 shipping/insurance (modeled service costs, not market prices).
  • Modeled marketplace sell fee: 13.0% of graded proceeds (a modeled cost, not a market price).
  • Raw cost and graded value trace to the existing audited references/pins — this panel authors no new market-price value.

Liquidity & Comp Explorer

How easily does this asset trade? Days-to-sell, sell-through rate, the spread between the lowest ask and the recent sold center, and inventory depth — all modeled over this asset's recorded sales and active listings. Explore the sale distribution with a date-range filter and an outlier-trim toggle.

Liquidity & Comp Explorer

Simulated
Days to sell
3.9dmodeled median sale gap
Sell-through
70.0%over 90d window
Bid-ask spread
-11.1%lowest ask vs sold avg
Inventory depth
3active listings
Recent sold avg
$451mean over 90d
Lowest ask
$401cheapest active listing

Comp Explorer

Min
$358
Median
$423
Mean
$427
Max
$478

Showing 16 of 16 sales

These liquidity signals are modeled deterministically over this asset's existing recorded sales and active listings — they author no new market-price value. Days-to-sell, sell-through and the bid-ask spread are analytical reads over those comps, not a live order book.

How Fair Value Is Built

A transparent, weighted blend of market signals — no black boxes.

SignalDetailReferenceWeight
recent salesVolume-weighted average of recent sold comps1182.3150%
listing inventoryAverage of active listing asking prices1193.3425%
price trendRecent historical price trend projection1202.7825%
demand momentumAdjustment for sales velocity momentum (rising demand raises value)1.4920%

Active Listings

PriceMarketplaceConditionSellerListedEndsLink
$401Facebook MarketplaceNear Mint6367d agoJan 1View
$432MercariNear Mint9472d agoJun 6View
$491MercariNear Mint7264d agoJan 1View

Recent Sales

PriceMarketplaceConditionSold
$478eBayNear Mint68d ago
$477MercariNear Mint71d ago
$472PWCCNear Mint75d ago
$432TCGPlayerNear Mint79d ago
$456PWCCNear Mint80d ago
$442TCGPlayerNear Mint84d ago
$400PWCCNear Mint89d ago
$358PWCCNear Mint93d ago
$386Facebook MarketplaceNear Mint96d ago
$397TCGPlayerNear Mint96d ago
$386TCGPlayerNear Mint99d ago
$403PWCCNear Mint105d ago

Signal Track Record

Did this asset's own Opportunity Scores precede outperformance? Each row is a past as-of date, scored point-in-time, with the realized benchmark-relative return that followed.

Data Provenance

Which signals on this page are real market data versus modeled by the deterministic engine. The terminal marks every source honestly.

Reference price
Simulated
Fair value basis
Simulated
Lowest ask (deal)
Simulated
Active listings
Simulated
Card image
Live
Recent sales
Simulated
Population data
Simulated
Liquidity metrics
Simulated
Liquidity analytics
Simulated
Price history
Simulated

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