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Umbreon — Prismatic Evolutions — Rare

Umbreon

PSA 9Simulated

Umbreon · Prismatic Evolutions · Rare · 59

Character: Umbreon

high confidencebullish8730d 14.9%
Estimated Fair Value
$14,856
Lowest listing $14,0365.5% below
Search live listings:eBay activeeBay soldTCGplayer active
Bear Case
$12,660
Base Case
$14,856
Bull Case
$17,167

Price History

Dec 8Range $145 – $266Jun 5

Opportunity Score

36
  • High valuation confidence+7 pts
  • 6% below fair value+6 pts
  • Price up 15% over 30 days+6 pts
  • High listing quality (graded)+6 pts
  • Reputable seller+6 pts
  • Strong demand (16 sales/mo)+5 pts

Investment Thesis

bullish87

Umbreon (PSA 9) is currently modestly undervalued, with rising price momentum over the last 30 days (+14.9%). Estimated fair value is $14856 against a lowest active listing of $14036. Valuation confidence is high based on 19-plus modeled comparable sales.

Bullish: rising prices (+14.9% over 30d) with healthy trading velocity and rising graded population (6.8%/mo).

Risk Indicators

  • Rising graded population may pressure prices
Active Listings
19
Sales / Month
16.0
Velocity Score
80/100
Fast-moving
Sales Velocity 30d
-2.7%
Total Graded
2,721
Gem Mint
630
Population Growth
+6.8%
Rising — supply pressure

Grading ROI & Population Trend

Is it worth paying to grade this card? A transparent profit model from the real ungraded cost and the audited graded value, plus a read on graded-supply momentum. The cost and odds levers are modeled assumptions you can adjust — not market-price pins.

Grading ROI (model)
-72.4%
Grading not economical
steady population

Population growing 4.5%/mo — steady supply across 5958 graded.

5,958 graded · 32% gem · +4.5%/mo

Raw cost
$14,036
All-in cost
$14,065+ $25.00 fee · $4.00 ship
Graded value (per gem)
$14,856
Expected proceeds
$3,87730% gem → $4,457 · less 13% fee
Net profit / card
-$10,187.94
Breakeven graded value
$53,890value needed to break even

Adjust modeled assumptions

These are modeled estimates, not market-price pins.

  • Modeled gem-grade odds: 30% chance of PSA 9 (a modeled probability, not a market price). Non-gem outcomes are valued conservatively at $0.
  • Modeled grading-service fee: $25.00 per card, plus $4.00 shipping/insurance (modeled service costs, not market prices).
  • Modeled marketplace sell fee: 13.0% of graded proceeds (a modeled cost, not a market price).
  • Raw cost and graded value trace to the existing audited references/pins — this panel authors no new market-price value.

Liquidity & Comp Explorer

How easily does this asset trade? Days-to-sell, sell-through rate, the spread between the lowest ask and the recent sold center, and inventory depth — all modeled over this asset's recorded sales and active listings. Explore the sale distribution with a date-range filter and an outlier-trim toggle.

Liquidity & Comp Explorer

Simulated
Days to sell
3.0dmodeled median sale gap
Sell-through
35.0%over 90d window
Bid-ask spread
+4.6%lowest ask vs sold avg
Inventory depth
13active listings
Recent sold avg
$165mean over 90d
Lowest ask
$172cheapest active listing

Comp Explorer

Min
$155
Median
$170
Mean
$171
Max
$181

Showing 7 of 10 sales · 3 outliers trimmed

These liquidity signals are modeled deterministically over this asset's existing recorded sales and active listings — they author no new market-price value. Days-to-sell, sell-through and the bid-ask spread are analytical reads over those comps, not a live order book.

How Fair Value Is Built

A transparent, weighted blend of market signals — no black boxes.

SignalDetailReferenceWeight
recent salesVolume-weighted average of recent sold comps14886.9350%
listing inventoryAverage of active listing asking prices16224.5425%
price trendRecent historical price trend projection15848.8425%
population pressureAdjustment for grading population growth (more supply lowers value)-3.4150%
demand momentumAdjustment for sales velocity momentum (rising demand raises value)-0.5320%

Active Listings

PriceMarketplaceConditionSellerListedEndsLink
$172PWCCGraded7171d agoJan 1View
$174MercariGraded9969d agoJun 6View
$177PWCCGraded9656d agoJan 1View
$178MercariGraded10064d agoJan 1View
$181PWCCGraded8472d agoJan 1View
$182MercariGraded9962d agoJan 1View
$194PWCCGraded7364d agoJan 1View
$195MercariGraded9656d agoJun 10View
$195PWCCGraded8372d agoJun 8View
$200eBayGraded6270d agoJan 1View
$201MercariGraded9568d agoJun 7View
$202TCGPlayerGraded7567d agoJan 1View

Recent Sales

PriceMarketplaceConditionSold
$170eBayGraded58d ago
$166PWCCGraded69d ago
$155MercariGraded71d ago
$138eBayGraded74d ago
$166TCGPlayerGraded84d ago
$179MercariGraded85d ago
$178eBayGraded88d ago
$181PWCCGraded101d ago
$204PWCCGraded109d ago
$216PWCCGraded111d ago

Signal Track Record

Did this asset's own Opportunity Scores precede outperformance? Each row is a past as-of date, scored point-in-time, with the realized benchmark-relative return that followed.

Data Provenance

Which signals on this page are real market data versus modeled by the deterministic engine. The terminal marks every source honestly.

Reference price
Simulated
Fair value basis
Simulated
Lowest ask (deal)
Simulated
Active listings
Simulated
Card image
Live
Recent sales
Simulated
Population data
Simulated
Liquidity metrics
Simulated
Liquidity analytics
Simulated
Price history
Simulated

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