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Ludicolo — Evolving Skies — Rare Holo

Ludicolo

Simulated

Ludicolo · Evolving Skies · Rare Holo · 34

Character: Ludicolo

high confidencebearish2030d ▼21.7%
Estimated Fair Value
$27.56
Lowest listing $24.0312.8% below
Search live listings:eBay activeeBay soldTCGplayer active
Bear Case
$23.54
Base Case
$27.56
Bull Case
$31.36

Price History

Dec 8Range $54.99 – $96.16Jun 5

Opportunity Score

42
  • 13% below fair value+15 pts
  • Sales accelerating+6 pts
  • High listing quality (near mint)+6 pts
  • Reputable seller+6 pts
  • High valuation confidence+6 pts
  • Low active inventory+2 pts
  • Strong demand (6 sales/mo)+2 pts

Investment Thesis

bearish20

Ludicolo is currently modestly undervalued, with softening price momentum over the last 30 days (-21.7%). Estimated fair value is $28 against a lowest active listing of $24. Valuation confidence is high based on 8-plus modeled comparable sales.

Bearish: softening prices (-21.7% over 30d) amid thin liquidity and stable graded supply.

Risk Indicators

  • Negative price momentum over the last 30 days
Active Listings
8
Sales / Month
6.0
Velocity Score
30/100
Illiquid
Sales Velocity 30d
+15.1%
Confidence
81/100

Grading ROI & Population Trend

Is it worth paying to grade this card? A transparent profit model from the real ungraded cost and the audited graded value, plus a read on graded-supply momentum. The cost and odds levers are modeled assumptions you can adjust — not market-price pins.

Grading ROI (model)
-52.7%
Grading not economical
unknown population

No population data reported for this asset.

Raw cost
$24.03
All-in cost
$53.03+ $25.00 fee · $4.00 ship
Graded value (per gem)
$96.12
Expected proceeds
$25.0930% gem → $28.84 · less 13% fee
Net profit / card
-$27.94
Breakeven graded value
$203value needed to break even

Adjust modeled assumptions

These are modeled estimates, not market-price pins.

  • Modeled gem-grade odds: 30% chance of PSA 10 (a modeled probability, not a market price). Non-gem outcomes are valued conservatively at $0.
  • Modeled grading-service fee: $25.00 per card, plus $4.00 shipping/insurance (modeled service costs, not market prices).
  • Modeled marketplace sell fee: 13.0% of graded proceeds (a modeled cost, not a market price).
  • Raw cost and graded value trace to the existing audited references/pins — this panel authors no new market-price value.

Liquidity & Comp Explorer

How easily does this asset trade? Days-to-sell, sell-through rate, the spread between the lowest ask and the recent sold center, and inventory depth — all modeled over this asset's recorded sales and active listings. Explore the sale distribution with a date-range filter and an outlier-trim toggle.

Liquidity & Comp Explorer

Simulated
Days to sell
1.6dmodeled median sale gap
Sell-through
83.0%over 90d window
Bid-ask spread
-2.3%lowest ask vs sold avg
Inventory depth
4active listings
Recent sold avg
$78.88mean over 90d
Lowest ask
$77.07cheapest active listing

Comp Explorer

Min
$54.99
Median
$72.39
Mean
$74.10
Max
$92.14

Showing 33 of 33 sales

These liquidity signals are modeled deterministically over this asset's existing recorded sales and active listings — they author no new market-price value. Days-to-sell, sell-through and the bid-ask spread are analytical reads over those comps, not a live order book.

How Fair Value Is Built

A transparent, weighted blend of market signals — no black boxes.

SignalDetailReferenceWeight
recent salesVolume-weighted average of recent sold comps28.4650%
listing inventoryAverage of active listing asking prices26.5925%
price trendRecent historical price trend projection23.5125%
demand momentumAdjustment for sales velocity momentum (rising demand raises value)3.0220%

Active Listings

PriceMarketplaceConditionSellerListedEndsLink
$77.07Facebook MarketplaceNear Mint8659d agoJan 1View
$85.20MercariNear Mint9871d agoJan 1View
$87.70TCGPlayerNear Mint9157d agoJan 1View
$98.43PWCCNear Mint6268d agoJan 1View

Recent Sales

PriceMarketplaceConditionSold
$88.13eBayNear Mint54d ago
$85.47Facebook MarketplaceNear Mint56d ago
$86.13MercariNear Mint57d ago
$81.00Facebook MarketplaceNear Mint59d ago
$87.47Facebook MarketplaceNear Mint60d ago
$92.14MercariNear Mint61d ago
$89.04eBayNear Mint63d ago
$79.31TCGPlayerNear Mint64d ago
$78.16Facebook MarketplaceNear Mint68d ago
$78.22eBayNear Mint71d ago
$74.28PWCCNear Mint73d ago
$78.37Facebook MarketplaceNear Mint74d ago

Signal Track Record

Did this asset's own Opportunity Scores precede outperformance? Each row is a past as-of date, scored point-in-time, with the realized benchmark-relative return that followed.

Data Provenance

Which signals on this page are real market data versus modeled by the deterministic engine. The terminal marks every source honestly.

Reference price
Simulated
Fair value basis
Simulated
Lowest ask (deal)
Simulated
Active listings
Simulated
Card image
Live
Recent sales
Simulated
Population data
Simulated
Liquidity metrics
Simulated
Liquidity analytics
Simulated
Price history
Simulated

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