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Pikachu ex (Illustration Rare)

Simulated

Pikachu ex (Illustration Rare) · HeartGold SoulSilver · Illustration Rare · 69/123

Character: Pikachu

high confidenceneutral6030d 2.1%
Estimated Fair Value
$497
Lowest listing $43312.9% below
Bear Case
$434
Base Case
$497
Bull Case
$562

Price History

Dec 2Range $366$634May 30

Opportunity Score

41
  • 13% below fair value+15 pts
  • Reputable seller+7 pts
  • High valuation confidence+6 pts
  • High listing quality (near mint)+6 pts
  • Sales accelerating+6 pts
  • Strong demand (6 sales/mo)+2 pts

Investment Thesis

neutral60

Pikachu ex (Illustration Rare) is currently modestly undervalued, with stable price momentum over the last 30 days (+2.1%). Estimated fair value is $497 against a lowest active listing of $433. Valuation confidence is high based on 20-plus recent comparable sales.

Neutral: flat 30-day price action with thin liquidity and stable graded supply.

Active Listings
20
Sales / Month
6.5
Velocity Score
33/100
Moderate
Sales Velocity 30d
+13.8%
Confidence
90/100

How Fair Value Is Built

A transparent, weighted blend of market signals — no black boxes.

SignalDetailReferenceWeight
recent salesVolume-weighted average of recent sold comps477.9650%
listing inventoryAverage of active listing asking prices490.9625%
price trendRecent historical price trend projection487.525%
demand momentumAdjustment for sales velocity momentum (rising demand raises value)2.7620%

Active Listings

PriceMarketplaceConditionSellerListedEndsLink
$475PWCCNear Mint6313d agoJan 1View
$483eBayNear Mint828d agoJan 1View
$515MercariNear Mint934d agoJan 1View

Recent Sales

PriceMarketplaceConditionSold
$412PWCCNear Mint3d ago
$465Facebook MarketplaceNear Mint8d ago
$477TCGPlayerNear Mint12d ago
$424eBayNear Mint20d ago
$433eBayNear Mint22d ago
$475TCGPlayerNear Mint24d ago
$459eBayNear Mint25d ago
$496TCGPlayerNear Mint26d ago
$496MercariNear Mint28d ago
$525TCGPlayerNear Mint30d ago
$472PWCCNear Mint30d ago
$468Facebook MarketplaceNear Mint31d ago

Signal Track Record

Did this asset's own Opportunity Scores precede outperformance? Each row is a past as-of date, scored point-in-time, with the realized benchmark-relative return that followed.

Data Provenance

Which signals on this page are real market data versus modeled by the deterministic engine. The terminal marks every source honestly.

Reference price
Simulated
Card image
Simulated
Recent sales
Simulated
Population data
Simulated
Liquidity metrics
Simulated
Price history
Simulated

Same character or set.

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  • High valuation confidence+7 pts
  • High listing quality (near mint)+6 pts
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Pikachu VMAX (Alt Art)XY EvolutionsPSA 9.5Simulated
  • 11% below fair value+12 pts
  • Population growth slowing+8 pts
  • Reputable seller+8 pts
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Pikachu Ultra RareBase SetBGS 9Simulated
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  • Reputable seller+8 pts
  • High valuation confidence+7 pts
$946$84410.8%4.3%942