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Golbat — Scarlet & Violet 151 — Uncommon

Golbat

BGS 9Simulated

Golbat · Scarlet & Violet 151 · Uncommon · 42

Character: Golbat

high confidenceneutral4430d 5.7%
Estimated Fair Value
$74.06
Lowest listing $66.6910.0% below
Search live listings:eBay activeeBay soldTCGplayer active
Bear Case
$61.74
Base Case
$74.06
Bull Case
$86.29

Price History

Dec 8Range $64.10 – $127Jun 5

Opportunity Score

43
  • 10% below fair value+12 pts
  • Reputable seller+7 pts
  • High valuation confidence+7 pts
  • High listing quality (graded)+6 pts
  • Sales accelerating+5 pts
  • Strong demand (16 sales/mo)+5 pts
  • Population growth slowing+1 pts

Investment Thesis

neutral44

Golbat (BGS 9) is currently modestly undervalued, with softening price momentum over the last 30 days (-5.7%). Estimated fair value is $74 against a lowest active listing of $67. Valuation confidence is high based on 20-plus modeled comparable sales.

Neutral: softening prices (-5.7% over 30d) with healthy trading velocity and stable graded supply.

Active Listings
20
Sales / Month
16.0
Velocity Score
80/100
Fast-moving
Sales Velocity 30d
+13.3%
Total Graded
1,461
Gem Mint
774
Population Growth
+4.2%
Slowing

Grading ROI & Population Trend

Is it worth paying to grade this card? A transparent profit model from the real ungraded cost and the audited graded value, plus a read on graded-supply momentum. The cost and odds levers are modeled assumptions you can adjust — not market-price pins.

Grading ROI (model)
-79.8%
Grading not economical
steady population

Population growing 2.5%/mo — steady supply across 7398 graded.

7,398 graded · 25% gem · +2.5%/mo

Raw cost
$66.69
All-in cost
$95.69+ $25.00 fee · $4.00 ship
Graded value (per gem)
$74.06
Expected proceeds
$19.3330% gem → $22.22 · less 13% fee
Net profit / card
-$76.36
Breakeven graded value
$367value needed to break even

Adjust modeled assumptions

These are modeled estimates, not market-price pins.

  • Modeled gem-grade odds: 30% chance of BGS 9 (a modeled probability, not a market price). Non-gem outcomes are valued conservatively at $0.
  • Modeled grading-service fee: $25.00 per card, plus $4.00 shipping/insurance (modeled service costs, not market prices).
  • Modeled marketplace sell fee: 13.0% of graded proceeds (a modeled cost, not a market price).
  • Raw cost and graded value trace to the existing audited references/pins — this panel authors no new market-price value.

Liquidity & Comp Explorer

How easily does this asset trade? Days-to-sell, sell-through rate, the spread between the lowest ask and the recent sold center, and inventory depth — all modeled over this asset's recorded sales and active listings. Explore the sale distribution with a date-range filter and an outlier-trim toggle.

Liquidity & Comp Explorer

Simulated
Days to sell
0.8dmodeled median sale gap
Sell-through
64.0%over 90d window
Bid-ask spread
+5.8%lowest ask vs sold avg
Inventory depth
10active listings
Recent sold avg
$83.64mean over 90d
Lowest ask
$88.48cheapest active listing

Comp Explorer

Min
$74.54
Median
$91.24
Mean
$92.66
Max
$117

Showing 33 of 33 sales

These liquidity signals are modeled deterministically over this asset's existing recorded sales and active listings — they author no new market-price value. Days-to-sell, sell-through and the bid-ask spread are analytical reads over those comps, not a live order book.

How Fair Value Is Built

A transparent, weighted blend of market signals — no black boxes.

SignalDetailReferenceWeight
recent salesVolume-weighted average of recent sold comps72.6450%
listing inventoryAverage of active listing asking prices77.0225%
price trendRecent historical price trend projection72.4225%
population pressureAdjustment for grading population growth (more supply lowers value)-2.0850%
demand momentumAdjustment for sales velocity momentum (rising demand raises value)2.6520%

Active Listings

PriceMarketplaceConditionSellerListedEndsLink
$88.48MercariGraded9170d agoJan 1View
$89.47MercariGraded7962d agoJan 1View
$93.48eBayGraded8656d agoJan 1View
$98.59TCGPlayerGraded7063d agoJan 1View
$100Facebook MarketplaceGraded8264d agoJun 7View
$100MercariGraded7168d agoJan 1View
$105MercariGraded6655d agoJan 1View
$108MercariGraded8064d agoJun 7View
$111PWCCGraded7456d agoJan 1View
$114Facebook MarketplaceGraded7866d agoJan 1View

Recent Sales

PriceMarketplaceConditionSold
$87.03MercariGraded57d ago
$74.54MercariGraded65d ago
$77.49eBayGraded65d ago
$85.89eBayGraded66d ago
$78.81PWCCGraded69d ago
$80.58MercariGraded69d ago
$77.88Facebook MarketplaceGraded71d ago
$81.44MercariGraded71d ago
$77.71Facebook MarketplaceGraded71d ago
$88.25MercariGraded73d ago
$82.99MercariGraded73d ago
$81.88MercariGraded73d ago

Signal Track Record

Did this asset's own Opportunity Scores precede outperformance? Each row is a past as-of date, scored point-in-time, with the realized benchmark-relative return that followed.

Data Provenance

Which signals on this page are real market data versus modeled by the deterministic engine. The terminal marks every source honestly.

Reference price
Simulated
Fair value basis
Simulated
Lowest ask (deal)
Simulated
Active listings
Simulated
Card image
Live
Recent sales
Simulated
Population data
Simulated
Liquidity metrics
Simulated
Liquidity analytics
Simulated
Price history
Simulated

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