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Kadabra — Base Set — Uncommon

Kadabra

Simulated

Kadabra · Base Set · Uncommon · 32

Character: Kadabra

high confidencebullish9630d ▲23.5%
Estimated Fair Value
$78.42
Lowest listing $74.215.4% below
Search live listings:eBay activeeBay soldTCGplayer active
Bear Case
$63.40
Base Case
$78.42
Bull Case
$93.83

Price History

Dec 8Range $163 – $269Jun 5

Opportunity Score

38
  • Price up 24% over 30 days+8 pts
  • High valuation confidence+7 pts
  • 5% below fair value+6 pts
  • Reputable seller+6 pts
  • High listing quality (near mint)+6 pts
  • Strong demand (14 sales/mo)+4 pts

Investment Thesis

bullish96

Kadabra is currently modestly undervalued, with rising price momentum over the last 30 days (+23.5%). Estimated fair value is $78 against a lowest active listing of $74. Valuation confidence is high based on 21-plus modeled comparable sales.

Bullish: rising prices (+23.5% over 30d) with healthy trading velocity and stable graded supply.

Active Listings
21
Sales / Month
14.5
Velocity Score
73/100
Fast-moving
Sales Velocity 30d
-11.8%
Confidence
94/100

Grading ROI & Population Trend

Is it worth paying to grade this card? A transparent profit model from the real ungraded cost and the audited graded value, plus a read on graded-supply momentum. The cost and odds levers are modeled assumptions you can adjust — not market-price pins.

Grading ROI (model)
-24.9%
Grading not economical
unknown population

No population data reported for this asset.

Raw cost
$74.21
All-in cost
$103+ $25.00 fee · $4.00 ship
Graded value (per gem)
$297
Expected proceeds
$77.4830% gem → $89.05 · less 13% fee
Net profit / card
-$25.73
Breakeven graded value
$395value needed to break even

Adjust modeled assumptions

These are modeled estimates, not market-price pins.

  • Modeled gem-grade odds: 30% chance of PSA 10 (a modeled probability, not a market price). Non-gem outcomes are valued conservatively at $0.
  • Modeled grading-service fee: $25.00 per card, plus $4.00 shipping/insurance (modeled service costs, not market prices).
  • Modeled marketplace sell fee: 13.0% of graded proceeds (a modeled cost, not a market price).
  • Raw cost and graded value trace to the existing audited references/pins — this panel authors no new market-price value.

Liquidity & Comp Explorer

How easily does this asset trade? Days-to-sell, sell-through rate, the spread between the lowest ask and the recent sold center, and inventory depth — all modeled over this asset's recorded sales and active listings. Explore the sale distribution with a date-range filter and an outlier-trim toggle.

Liquidity & Comp Explorer

Simulated
Days to sell
3.0dmodeled median sale gap
Sell-through
36.0%over 90d window
Bid-ask spread
-13.9%lowest ask vs sold avg
Inventory depth
23active listings
Recent sold avg
$212mean over 90d
Lowest ask
$182cheapest active listing

Comp Explorer

Min
$189
Median
$216
Mean
$219
Max
$263

Showing 21 of 21 sales

These liquidity signals are modeled deterministically over this asset's existing recorded sales and active listings — they author no new market-price value. Days-to-sell, sell-through and the bid-ask spread are analytical reads over those comps, not a live order book.

How Fair Value Is Built

A transparent, weighted blend of market signals — no black boxes.

SignalDetailReferenceWeight
recent salesVolume-weighted average of recent sold comps76.5750%
listing inventoryAverage of active listing asking prices85.6325%
price trendRecent historical price trend projection82.4925%
demand momentumAdjustment for sales velocity momentum (rising demand raises value)-2.3620%

Active Listings

PriceMarketplaceConditionSellerListedEndsLink
$182MercariNear Mint9669d agoJan 1View
$186TCGPlayerNear Mint7570d agoJun 7View
$186TCGPlayerNear Mint6265d agoJan 1View
$189eBayNear Mint10072d agoJan 1View
$192Facebook MarketplaceNear Mint9856d agoJan 1View
$193PWCCNear Mint7465d agoJan 1View
$194PWCCNear Mint9656d agoJun 6View
$195MercariNear Mint8062d agoJan 1View
$201eBayNear Mint6356d agoJan 1View
$202PWCCNear Mint9964d agoJan 1View
$202PWCCNear Mint8064d agoJan 1View
$203TCGPlayerNear Mint6263d agoJan 1View

Recent Sales

PriceMarketplaceConditionSold
$216MercariNear Mint54d ago
$203MercariNear Mint57d ago
$189MercariNear Mint58d ago
$202PWCCNear Mint61d ago
$199Facebook MarketplaceNear Mint62d ago
$216PWCCNear Mint68d ago
$212Facebook MarketplaceNear Mint68d ago
$233PWCCNear Mint69d ago
$230Facebook MarketplaceNear Mint73d ago
$227Facebook MarketplaceNear Mint80d ago
$217MercariNear Mint83d ago
$214eBayNear Mint87d ago

Signal Track Record

Did this asset's own Opportunity Scores precede outperformance? Each row is a past as-of date, scored point-in-time, with the realized benchmark-relative return that followed.

Data Provenance

Which signals on this page are real market data versus modeled by the deterministic engine. The terminal marks every source honestly.

Reference price
Simulated
Fair value basis
Simulated
Lowest ask (deal)
Simulated
Active listings
Simulated
Card image
Live
Recent sales
Simulated
Population data
Simulated
Liquidity metrics
Simulated
Liquidity analytics
Simulated
Price history
Simulated

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