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Heliolisk — Crown Zenith — Rare

Heliolisk

Simulated

Heliolisk · Crown Zenith · Rare · 50

Character: Heliolisk

high confidencebullish8830d 21.0%
Estimated Fair Value
$96.60
Lowest listing $87.669.3% below
Search live listings:eBay activeeBay soldTCGplayer active
Bear Case
$82.17
Base Case
$96.60
Bull Case
$112

Price History

Dec 8Range $49.34 – $110Jun 5

Opportunity Score

45
  • 9% below fair value+11 pts
  • Price up 21% over 30 days+8 pts
  • Reputable seller+7 pts
  • Sales accelerating+7 pts
  • High listing quality (near mint)+6 pts
  • High valuation confidence+5 pts
  • Strong demand (4 sales/mo)+1 pts

Investment Thesis

bullish88

Heliolisk is currently modestly undervalued, with rising price momentum over the last 30 days (+21.0%). Estimated fair value is $97 against a lowest active listing of $88. Valuation confidence is high based on 23-plus modeled comparable sales.

Bullish: rising prices (+21.0% over 30d) with thin liquidity and stable graded supply.

Active Listings
23
Sales / Month
4.5
Velocity Score
23/100
Illiquid
Sales Velocity 30d
+17.0%
Confidence
73/100

Grading ROI & Population Trend

Is it worth paying to grade this card? A transparent profit model from the real ungraded cost and the audited graded value, plus a read on graded-supply momentum. The cost and odds levers are modeled assumptions you can adjust — not market-price pins.

Grading ROI (model)
-21.6%
Grading not economical
unknown population

No population data reported for this asset.

Raw cost
$87.66
All-in cost
$117+ $25.00 fee · $4.00 ship
Graded value (per gem)
$351
Expected proceeds
$91.5230% gem → $105 · less 13% fee
Net profit / card
-$25.14
Breakeven graded value
$447value needed to break even

Adjust modeled assumptions

These are modeled estimates, not market-price pins.

  • Modeled gem-grade odds: 30% chance of PSA 10 (a modeled probability, not a market price). Non-gem outcomes are valued conservatively at $0.
  • Modeled grading-service fee: $25.00 per card, plus $4.00 shipping/insurance (modeled service costs, not market prices).
  • Modeled marketplace sell fee: 13.0% of graded proceeds (a modeled cost, not a market price).
  • Raw cost and graded value trace to the existing audited references/pins — this panel authors no new market-price value.

Liquidity & Comp Explorer

How easily does this asset trade? Days-to-sell, sell-through rate, the spread between the lowest ask and the recent sold center, and inventory depth — all modeled over this asset's recorded sales and active listings. Explore the sale distribution with a date-range filter and an outlier-trim toggle.

Liquidity & Comp Explorer

Simulated
Days to sell
1.6dmodeled median sale gap
Sell-through
55.0%over 90d window
Bid-ask spread
-7.3%lowest ask vs sold avg
Inventory depth
15active listings
Recent sold avg
$70.45mean over 90d
Lowest ask
$65.27cheapest active listing

Comp Explorer

Min
$62.48
Median
$73.51
Mean
$75.02
Max
$89.46

Showing 29 of 29 sales

These liquidity signals are modeled deterministically over this asset's existing recorded sales and active listings — they author no new market-price value. Days-to-sell, sell-through and the bid-ask spread are analytical reads over those comps, not a live order book.

How Fair Value Is Built

A transparent, weighted blend of market signals — no black boxes.

SignalDetailReferenceWeight
recent salesVolume-weighted average of recent sold comps86.1850%
listing inventoryAverage of active listing asking prices101.6625%
price trendRecent historical price trend projection99.6425%
demand momentumAdjustment for sales velocity momentum (rising demand raises value)3.4120%

Active Listings

PriceMarketplaceConditionSellerListedEndsLink
$65.27TCGPlayerNear Mint8457d agoJun 8View
$65.90MercariNear Mint8871d agoJan 1View
$67.82eBayNear Mint7573d agoJan 1View
$70.36MercariNear Mint8464d agoJan 1View
$73.03TCGPlayerNear Mint9469d agoJan 1View
$73.30PWCCNear Mint6872d agoJan 1View
$73.52eBayNear Mint8474d agoJan 1View
$74.57Facebook MarketplaceNear Mint8563d agoJun 9View
$75.04eBayNear Mint9670d agoJan 1View
$75.09TCGPlayerNear Mint9659d agoJun 8View
$75.68TCGPlayerNear Mint9371d agoJan 1View
$80.31TCGPlayerNear Mint6569d agoJan 1View

Recent Sales

PriceMarketplaceConditionSold
$74.21PWCCNear Mint55d ago
$72.26eBayNear Mint59d ago
$71.13eBayNear Mint60d ago
$64.57MercariNear Mint63d ago
$62.48PWCCNear Mint67d ago
$65.63PWCCNear Mint67d ago
$71.27TCGPlayerNear Mint71d ago
$68.71eBayNear Mint73d ago
$68.36TCGPlayerNear Mint74d ago
$77.59Facebook MarketplaceNear Mint75d ago
$69.78TCGPlayerNear Mint77d ago
$64.77eBayNear Mint78d ago

Signal Track Record

Did this asset's own Opportunity Scores precede outperformance? Each row is a past as-of date, scored point-in-time, with the realized benchmark-relative return that followed.

Data Provenance

Which signals on this page are real market data versus modeled by the deterministic engine. The terminal marks every source honestly.

Reference price
Simulated
Fair value basis
Simulated
Lowest ask (deal)
Simulated
Active listings
Simulated
Card image
Live
Recent sales
Simulated
Population data
Simulated
Liquidity metrics
Simulated
Liquidity analytics
Simulated
Price history
Simulated

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