PokéAlpha
Live data not configuredNumbers are backed by a real but dated snapshot. Enable real marketplace listings for live intelligence.How to enable
Back to dashboard
Zarude — Crown Zenith — Rare Holo

Zarude

BGS 9Simulated

Zarude · Crown Zenith · Rare Holo · 16

Character: Zarude

high confidencebullish6230d 3.0%
Estimated Fair Value
$126
Lowest listing $1260.6% below
Search live listings:eBay activeeBay soldTCGplayer active
Bear Case
$109
Base Case
$126
Bull Case
$144

Price History

Dec 8Range $87.70 – $133Jun 5

Opportunity Score

32
  • Population growth slowing+8 pts
  • High valuation confidence+6 pts
  • High listing quality (graded)+6 pts
  • Reputable seller+5 pts
  • Low active inventory+3 pts
  • Strong demand (8 sales/mo)+2 pts
  • Price up 3% over 30 days+1 pts

Investment Thesis

bullish62

Zarude (BGS 9) is currently fairly valued, with stable price momentum over the last 30 days (+3.0%). Estimated fair value is $126 against a lowest active listing of $126. Valuation confidence is high based on 7-plus modeled comparable sales.

Bullish: flat 30-day price action with thin liquidity and stable graded supply.

Active Listings
7
Sales / Month
8.0
Velocity Score
40/100
Moderate
Sales Velocity 30d
-7.2%
Total Graded
3,312
Gem Mint
837
Population Growth
-0.6%
Stable supply

Grading ROI & Population Trend

Is it worth paying to grade this card? A transparent profit model from the real ungraded cost and the audited graded value, plus a read on graded-supply momentum. The cost and odds levers are modeled assumptions you can adjust — not market-price pins.

Grading ROI (model)
-78.7%
Grading not economical
steady population

Population growing 4.0%/mo — steady supply across 4095 graded.

4,095 graded · 39% gem · +4.0%/mo

Raw cost
$126
All-in cost
$155+ $25.00 fee · $4.00 ship
Graded value (per gem)
$126
Expected proceeds
$32.9630% gem → $37.88 · less 13% fee
Net profit / card
-$121.56
Breakeven graded value
$592value needed to break even

Adjust modeled assumptions

These are modeled estimates, not market-price pins.

  • Modeled gem-grade odds: 30% chance of BGS 9 (a modeled probability, not a market price). Non-gem outcomes are valued conservatively at $0.
  • Modeled grading-service fee: $25.00 per card, plus $4.00 shipping/insurance (modeled service costs, not market prices).
  • Modeled marketplace sell fee: 13.0% of graded proceeds (a modeled cost, not a market price).
  • Raw cost and graded value trace to the existing audited references/pins — this panel authors no new market-price value.

Liquidity & Comp Explorer

How easily does this asset trade? Days-to-sell, sell-through rate, the spread between the lowest ask and the recent sold center, and inventory depth — all modeled over this asset's recorded sales and active listings. Explore the sale distribution with a date-range filter and an outlier-trim toggle.

Liquidity & Comp Explorer

Simulated
Days to sell
0.7dmodeled median sale gap
Sell-through
45.0%over 90d window
Bid-ask spread
+2.4%lowest ask vs sold avg
Inventory depth
23active listings
Recent sold avg
$105mean over 90d
Lowest ask
$108cheapest active listing

Comp Explorer

Min
$89.17
Median
$101
Mean
$101
Max
$114

Showing 32 of 36 sales · 4 outliers trimmed

These liquidity signals are modeled deterministically over this asset's existing recorded sales and active listings — they author no new market-price value. Days-to-sell, sell-through and the bid-ask spread are analytical reads over those comps, not a live order book.

How Fair Value Is Built

A transparent, weighted blend of market signals — no black boxes.

SignalDetailReferenceWeight
recent salesVolume-weighted average of recent sold comps123.9550%
listing inventoryAverage of active listing asking prices138.2725%
price trendRecent historical price trend projection124.8825%
population pressureAdjustment for grading population growth (more supply lowers value)0.2850%
demand momentumAdjustment for sales velocity momentum (rising demand raises value)-1.4420%

Active Listings

PriceMarketplaceConditionSellerListedEndsLink
$108PWCCGraded6562d agoJan 1View
$108TCGPlayerGraded7469d agoJan 1View
$108eBayGraded7766d agoJan 1View
$109PWCCGraded8367d agoJan 1View
$115MercariGraded6869d agoJan 1View
$117TCGPlayerGraded8069d agoJan 1View
$118Facebook MarketplaceGraded7274d agoJan 1View
$119Facebook MarketplaceGraded9059d agoJan 1View
$119Facebook MarketplaceGraded6365d agoJan 1View
$120eBayGraded9962d agoJan 1View
$121PWCCGraded9863d agoJan 1View
$122PWCCGraded8475d agoJan 1View

Recent Sales

PriceMarketplaceConditionSold
$127PWCCGraded59d ago
$124TCGPlayerGraded60d ago
$114PWCCGraded60d ago
$113MercariGraded61d ago
$120PWCCGraded61d ago
$100PWCCGraded67d ago
$110PWCCGraded68d ago
$97.94eBayGraded68d ago
$96.57eBayGraded68d ago
$95.45Facebook MarketplaceGraded70d ago
$96.26PWCCGraded72d ago
$101PWCCGraded72d ago

Signal Track Record

Did this asset's own Opportunity Scores precede outperformance? Each row is a past as-of date, scored point-in-time, with the realized benchmark-relative return that followed.

Data Provenance

Which signals on this page are real market data versus modeled by the deterministic engine. The terminal marks every source honestly.

Reference price
Simulated
Fair value basis
Simulated
Lowest ask (deal)
Simulated
Active listings
Simulated
Card image
Live
Recent sales
Simulated
Population data
Simulated
Liquidity metrics
Simulated
Liquidity analytics
Simulated
Price history
Simulated

Related Assets

Same character or set.

AssetFair ValueLowestDiscount30dAvailScore
Snorlax (Crown Zenith) — Crown Zenith — Rare
Snorlax (Crown Zenith)Crown ZenithLive-anchoredReal askas of Jun 4 · 56d old2nd source (tcgcsv): $10.78 · sales-derived, ungradedBuy $7.00 · TCGPlayer
  • 19% below fair value+23 pts
  • Sales accelerating+10 pts
  • Reputable seller+8 pts
eBay activeeBay soldTCGplayer active
$247$19919.5%8.3%1359
Mew V — Crown Zenith — Rare Holo V
Mew VCrown ZenithSimulated
  • 14% below fair value+17 pts
  • Sales accelerating+8 pts
  • Reputable seller+8 pts
eBay activeeBay soldTCGplayer active
$2,391$2,05214.2%2.8%852
Crown Zenith Elite Trainer Box — Crown Zenith — Sealed
Crown Zenith Elite Trainer BoxCrown ZenithSimulated
  • Price up 23% over 30 days+8 pts
  • Reputable seller+7 pts
  • High valuation confidence+7 pts
eBay activeeBay soldTCGplayer active
$571$5434.8%22.6%1738
Pincurchin — Crown Zenith — Uncommon
PincurchinCrown ZenithPSA 9Simulated
  • 12% below fair value+14 pts
  • Sales accelerating+9 pts
  • High valuation confidence+7 pts
eBay activeeBay soldTCGplayer active
$124$11011.8%3.7%1653
Zeraora V — Crown Zenith — Rare Holo V
Zeraora VCrown ZenithSimulated
  • 14% below fair value+16 pts
  • High valuation confidence+6 pts
  • High listing quality (near mint)+6 pts
eBay activeeBay soldTCGplayer active
$61.78$53.0914.1%17.6%1835
Carnivine — Crown Zenith — Uncommon
CarnivineCrown ZenithSimulated
  • 9% below fair value+11 pts
  • High valuation confidence+7 pts
  • Reputable seller+6 pts
eBay activeeBay soldTCGplayer active
$63.83$57.899.3%2.3%1235