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Pincurchin — Crown Zenith — Uncommon

Pincurchin

PSA 9Simulated

Pincurchin · Crown Zenith · Uncommon · 56

Character: Pincurchin

high confidencebullish7730d 9.6%
Estimated Fair Value
$118
Lowest listing $1133.9% below
Search live listings:eBay activeeBay soldTCGplayer active
Bear Case
$102
Base Case
$118
Bull Case
$133

Price History

Dec 8Range $89.94 – $127Jun 5

Opportunity Score

32
  • High valuation confidence+7 pts
  • High listing quality (graded)+6 pts
  • Reputable seller+5 pts
  • 4% below fair value+5 pts
  • Strong demand (14 sales/mo)+4 pts
  • Price up 10% over 30 days+4 pts
  • Population growth slowing+2 pts

Investment Thesis

bullish77

Pincurchin (PSA 9) is currently fairly valued, with rising price momentum over the last 30 days (+9.6%). Estimated fair value is $118 against a lowest active listing of $113. Valuation confidence is high based on 14-plus modeled comparable sales.

Bullish: rising prices (+9.6% over 30d) with healthy trading velocity and stable graded supply.

Active Listings
14
Sales / Month
14.5
Velocity Score
73/100
Fast-moving
Sales Velocity 30d
-6.6%
Total Graded
4,848
Gem Mint
2,519
Population Growth
+4.0%
Slowing

Grading ROI & Population Trend

Is it worth paying to grade this card? A transparent profit model from the real ungraded cost and the audited graded value, plus a read on graded-supply momentum. The cost and odds levers are modeled assumptions you can adjust — not market-price pins.

Grading ROI (model)
-78.4%
Grading not economical
scarce population

Only 604 graded copies exist (56% gem) — a scarce, thin supply.

604 graded · 56% gem · +1.4%/mo

Raw cost
$113
All-in cost
$142+ $25.00 fee · $4.00 ship
Graded value (per gem)
$118
Expected proceeds
$30.6730% gem → $35.26 · less 13% fee
Net profit / card
-$111.21
Breakeven graded value
$544value needed to break even

Adjust modeled assumptions

These are modeled estimates, not market-price pins.

  • Modeled gem-grade odds: 30% chance of PSA 9 (a modeled probability, not a market price). Non-gem outcomes are valued conservatively at $0.
  • Modeled grading-service fee: $25.00 per card, plus $4.00 shipping/insurance (modeled service costs, not market prices).
  • Modeled marketplace sell fee: 13.0% of graded proceeds (a modeled cost, not a market price).
  • Raw cost and graded value trace to the existing audited references/pins — this panel authors no new market-price value.

Liquidity & Comp Explorer

How easily does this asset trade? Days-to-sell, sell-through rate, the spread between the lowest ask and the recent sold center, and inventory depth — all modeled over this asset's recorded sales and active listings. Explore the sale distribution with a date-range filter and an outlier-trim toggle.

Liquidity & Comp Explorer

Simulated
Days to sell
1.5dmodeled median sale gap
Sell-through
38.0%over 90d window
Bid-ask spread
-11.3%lowest ask vs sold avg
Inventory depth
15active listings
Recent sold avg
$114mean over 90d
Lowest ask
$101cheapest active listing

Comp Explorer

Min
$104
Median
$111
Mean
$114
Max
$126

Showing 14 of 14 sales

These liquidity signals are modeled deterministically over this asset's existing recorded sales and active listings — they author no new market-price value. Days-to-sell, sell-through and the bid-ask spread are analytical reads over those comps, not a live order book.

How Fair Value Is Built

A transparent, weighted blend of market signals — no black boxes.

SignalDetailReferenceWeight
recent salesVolume-weighted average of recent sold comps118.0550%
listing inventoryAverage of active listing asking prices131.2625%
price trendRecent historical price trend projection118.6725%
population pressureAdjustment for grading population growth (more supply lowers value)-1.9950%
demand momentumAdjustment for sales velocity momentum (rising demand raises value)-1.3320%

Active Listings

PriceMarketplaceConditionSellerListedEndsLink
$101eBayGraded6955d agoJan 1View
$103eBayGraded10063d agoJun 9View
$104PWCCGraded7274d agoJun 10View
$106Facebook MarketplaceGraded9063d agoJan 1View
$109PWCCGraded9765d agoJan 1View
$110Facebook MarketplaceGraded6257d agoJun 8View
$115TCGPlayerGraded8062d agoJan 1View
$117TCGPlayerGraded7571d agoJan 1View
$117MercariGraded7673d agoJun 10View
$119TCGPlayerGraded8673d agoJun 9View
$120eBayGraded6255d agoJan 1View
$131TCGPlayerGraded7264d agoJan 1View

Recent Sales

PriceMarketplaceConditionSold
$107Facebook MarketplaceGraded66d ago
$109MercariGraded66d ago
$109MercariGraded68d ago
$111MercariGraded76d ago
$105MercariGraded77d ago
$118PWCCGraded78d ago
$126eBayGraded79d ago
$122Facebook MarketplaceGraded83d ago
$119eBayGraded88d ago
$108Facebook MarketplaceGraded94d ago
$111Facebook MarketplaceGraded94d ago
$104eBayGraded99d ago

Signal Track Record

Did this asset's own Opportunity Scores precede outperformance? Each row is a past as-of date, scored point-in-time, with the realized benchmark-relative return that followed.

Data Provenance

Which signals on this page are real market data versus modeled by the deterministic engine. The terminal marks every source honestly.

Reference price
Simulated
Fair value basis
Simulated
Lowest ask (deal)
Simulated
Active listings
Simulated
Card image
Live
Recent sales
Simulated
Population data
Simulated
Liquidity metrics
Simulated
Liquidity analytics
Simulated
Price history
Simulated

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