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Snorlax Ultra Rare

BGS 10Simulated

Snorlax Ultra Rare · Hidden Fates · Ultra Rare · 15/163

Character: Snorlax

high confidenceneutral5030d 2.3%
Estimated Fair Value
$518
Lowest listing $44613.8% below
Bear Case
$445
Base Case
$518
Bull Case
$590

Price History

Dec 2Range $420$633May 30

Opportunity Score

50
  • 14% below fair value+16 pts
  • Population growth slowing+8 pts
  • Reputable seller+7 pts
  • High valuation confidence+6 pts
  • High listing quality (graded)+6 pts
  • Sales accelerating+5 pts
  • Strong demand (6 sales/mo)+2 pts

Investment Thesis

neutral50

Snorlax Ultra Rare (BGS 10) is currently modestly undervalued, with stable price momentum over the last 30 days (-2.3%). Estimated fair value is $518 against a lowest active listing of $446. Valuation confidence is high based on 13-plus recent comparable sales.

Neutral: flat 30-day price action with thin liquidity and stable graded supply.

Active Listings
13
Sales / Month
6.5
Velocity Score
33/100
Moderate
Sales Velocity 30d
+13.1%
Total Graded
3,350
Gem Mint
1,169
Population Growth
+0.1%
Stable supply

How Fair Value Is Built

A transparent, weighted blend of market signals — no black boxes.

SignalDetailReferenceWeight
recent salesVolume-weighted average of recent sold comps515.7450%
listing inventoryAverage of active listing asking prices505.1925%
price trendRecent historical price trend projection484.4425%
population pressureAdjustment for grading population growth (more supply lowers value)-0.0750%
demand momentumAdjustment for sales velocity momentum (rising demand raises value)2.6120%

Active Listings

PriceMarketplaceConditionSellerListedEndsLink
$513TCGPlayerGraded842d agoJan 1View
$529Facebook MarketplaceGraded7017d agoJan 1View
$536Facebook MarketplaceGraded946d agoJan 1View
$559PWCCGraded7019d agoJan 1View
$577PWCCGraded708d agoJan 1View
$585TCGPlayerGraded8221d agoJan 1View
$589MercariGraded734d agoJan 1View
$623PWCCGraded8511d agoJan 1View
$632eBayGraded884d agoJan 1View
$644eBayGraded7721d agoJan 1View
$648TCGPlayerGraded728d agoJan 1View

Recent Sales

PriceMarketplaceConditionSold
$571TCGPlayerGraded2d ago
$571eBayGraded12d ago
$545TCGPlayerGraded14d ago
$526PWCCGraded18d ago
$583Facebook MarketplaceGraded18d ago
$577MercariGraded20d ago
$588Facebook MarketplaceGraded36d ago
$591TCGPlayerGraded36d ago
$546TCGPlayerGraded38d ago
$549eBayGraded39d ago
$578PWCCGraded42d ago
$535TCGPlayerGraded54d ago

Signal Track Record

Did this asset's own Opportunity Scores precede outperformance? Each row is a past as-of date, scored point-in-time, with the realized benchmark-relative return that followed.

Data Provenance

Which signals on this page are real market data versus modeled by the deterministic engine. The terminal marks every source honestly.

Reference price
Simulated
Card image
Simulated
Recent sales
Simulated
Population data
Simulated
Liquidity metrics
Simulated
Price history
Simulated

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  • Population growth slowing+8 pts
  • High valuation confidence+7 pts
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Charizard Ultra RareHidden FatesSimulated
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  • Reputable seller+7 pts
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Pikachu V (Full Art)Hidden FatesSimulated
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  • High valuation confidence+7 pts
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Mewtwo Secret RareHidden FatesSimulated
  • Price up 29% over 30 days+8 pts
  • Low active inventory+6 pts
  • High valuation confidence+6 pts
$345$376-9.2%29.3%435
Umbreon V (Full Art)Hidden FatesSimulated
  • 14% below fair value+17 pts
  • Sales accelerating+7 pts
  • Reputable seller+7 pts
$409$35014.4%5.0%1549
Snorlax Holo RareBase SetSimulated
  • Reputable seller+6 pts
  • High valuation confidence+6 pts
  • High listing quality (near mint)+6 pts
$389$3763.5%3.8%1131