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Weedle — Scarlet & Violet 151 — Common

Weedle

Simulated

Weedle · Scarlet & Violet 151 · Common · 13

Character: Weedle

high confidencebullish6930d 3.2%
Estimated Fair Value
$50.37
Lowest listing $44.7911.1% below
Search live listings:eBay activeeBay soldTCGplayer active
Bear Case
$42.66
Base Case
$50.37
Bull Case
$58.09

Price History

Dec 8Range $53.40 – $80.34Jun 5

Opportunity Score

43
  • 11% below fair value+13 pts
  • High valuation confidence+7 pts
  • High listing quality (near mint)+6 pts
  • Sales accelerating+6 pts
  • Reputable seller+6 pts
  • Strong demand (16 sales/mo)+5 pts
  • Price up 3% over 30 days+1 pts

Investment Thesis

bullish69

Weedle is currently modestly undervalued, with stable price momentum over the last 30 days (+3.2%). Estimated fair value is $50 against a lowest active listing of $45. Valuation confidence is high based on 11-plus modeled comparable sales.

Bullish: flat 30-day price action with healthy trading velocity and stable graded supply.

Active Listings
11
Sales / Month
16.0
Velocity Score
80/100
Fast-moving
Sales Velocity 30d
+14.5%
Confidence
96/100

Grading ROI & Population Trend

Is it worth paying to grade this card? A transparent profit model from the real ungraded cost and the audited graded value, plus a read on graded-supply momentum. The cost and odds levers are modeled assumptions you can adjust — not market-price pins.

Grading ROI (model)
-36.6%
Grading not economical
unknown population

No population data reported for this asset.

Raw cost
$44.79
All-in cost
$73.79+ $25.00 fee · $4.00 ship
Graded value (per gem)
$179
Expected proceeds
$46.7630% gem → $53.75 · less 13% fee
Net profit / card
-$27.03
Breakeven graded value
$283value needed to break even

Adjust modeled assumptions

These are modeled estimates, not market-price pins.

  • Modeled gem-grade odds: 30% chance of PSA 10 (a modeled probability, not a market price). Non-gem outcomes are valued conservatively at $0.
  • Modeled grading-service fee: $25.00 per card, plus $4.00 shipping/insurance (modeled service costs, not market prices).
  • Modeled marketplace sell fee: 13.0% of graded proceeds (a modeled cost, not a market price).
  • Raw cost and graded value trace to the existing audited references/pins — this panel authors no new market-price value.

Liquidity & Comp Explorer

How easily does this asset trade? Days-to-sell, sell-through rate, the spread between the lowest ask and the recent sold center, and inventory depth — all modeled over this asset's recorded sales and active listings. Explore the sale distribution with a date-range filter and an outlier-trim toggle.

Liquidity & Comp Explorer

Simulated
Days to sell
1.2dmodeled median sale gap
Sell-through
59.0%over 90d window
Bid-ask spread
-7.6%lowest ask vs sold avg
Inventory depth
14active listings
Recent sold avg
$59.49mean over 90d
Lowest ask
$54.99cheapest active listing

Comp Explorer

Min
$53.85
Median
$60.80
Mean
$64.18
Max
$81.97

Showing 32 of 32 sales

These liquidity signals are modeled deterministically over this asset's existing recorded sales and active listings — they author no new market-price value. Days-to-sell, sell-through and the bid-ask spread are analytical reads over those comps, not a live order book.

How Fair Value Is Built

A transparent, weighted blend of market signals — no black boxes.

SignalDetailReferenceWeight
recent salesVolume-weighted average of recent sold comps48.1250%
listing inventoryAverage of active listing asking prices50.7225%
price trendRecent historical price trend projection48.8625%
demand momentumAdjustment for sales velocity momentum (rising demand raises value)2.8920%

Active Listings

PriceMarketplaceConditionSellerListedEndsLink
$54.99PWCCNear Mint9466d agoJan 1View
$56.17PWCCNear Mint9360d agoJan 1View
$56.27Facebook MarketplaceNear Mint7464d agoJun 10View
$56.94PWCCNear Mint9465d agoJan 1View
$61.40TCGPlayerNear Mint9169d agoJan 1View
$62.19eBayNear Mint9966d agoJan 1View
$63.01PWCCNear Mint8564d agoJan 1View
$64.18MercariNear Mint7364d agoJun 7View
$64.25eBayNear Mint9271d agoJan 1View
$65.17PWCCNear Mint7575d agoJan 1View
$67.15MercariNear Mint8968d agoJan 1View
$67.56Facebook MarketplaceNear Mint8858d agoJan 1View

Recent Sales

PriceMarketplaceConditionSold
$63.86eBayNear Mint55d ago
$57.16TCGPlayerNear Mint56d ago
$59.06MercariNear Mint57d ago
$55.81TCGPlayerNear Mint58d ago
$61.87Facebook MarketplaceNear Mint62d ago
$61.18TCGPlayerNear Mint64d ago
$65.69MercariNear Mint66d ago
$58.31MercariNear Mint68d ago
$57.77Facebook MarketplaceNear Mint69d ago
$60.05eBayNear Mint73d ago
$53.85TCGPlayerNear Mint74d ago
$58.53PWCCNear Mint74d ago

Signal Track Record

Did this asset's own Opportunity Scores precede outperformance? Each row is a past as-of date, scored point-in-time, with the realized benchmark-relative return that followed.

Data Provenance

Which signals on this page are real market data versus modeled by the deterministic engine. The terminal marks every source honestly.

Reference price
Simulated
Fair value basis
Simulated
Lowest ask (deal)
Simulated
Active listings
Simulated
Card image
Live
Recent sales
Simulated
Population data
Simulated
Liquidity metrics
Simulated
Liquidity analytics
Simulated
Price history
Simulated

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