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Greninja ex (Special Illustration)

CGC 9Simulated

Greninja ex (Special Illustration) · Neo Genesis · Special Illustration Rare · 67/111

Character: Greninja

high confidencebearish3630d 9.6%
Estimated Fair Value
$1,081
Lowest listing $1,0245.2% below
Bear Case
$869
Base Case
$1,081
Bull Case
$1,289

Price History

Dec 2Range $971$1.5KMay 30

Opportunity Score

32
  • Reputable seller+8 pts
  • High valuation confidence+7 pts
  • 5% below fair value+6 pts
  • High listing quality (graded)+6 pts
  • Strong demand (18 sales/mo)+5 pts

Investment Thesis

bearish36

Greninja ex (Special Illustration) (CGC 9) is currently modestly undervalued, with softening price momentum over the last 30 days (-9.6%). Estimated fair value is $1081 against a lowest active listing of $1024. Valuation confidence is high based on 15-plus recent comparable sales.

Bearish: softening prices (-9.6% over 30d) amid healthy trading velocity and rising graded population (5.4%/mo).

Risk Indicators

  • Rising graded population may pressure prices
Active Listings
15
Sales / Month
18.0
Velocity Score
90/100
Fast-moving
Sales Velocity 30d
-2.4%
Total Graded
7,046
Gem Mint
2,999
Population Growth
+5.4%
Rising — supply pressure

How Fair Value Is Built

A transparent, weighted blend of market signals — no black boxes.

SignalDetailReferenceWeight
recent salesVolume-weighted average of recent sold comps1112.9550%
listing inventoryAverage of active listing asking prices1186.2825%
price trendRecent historical price trend projection1051.925%
population pressureAdjustment for grading population growth (more supply lowers value)-2.7150%
demand momentumAdjustment for sales velocity momentum (rising demand raises value)-0.4720%

Active Listings

PriceMarketplaceConditionSellerListedEndsLink
$1,337Facebook MarketplaceGraded775d agoJan 1View
$1,379TCGPlayerGraded7015d agoJun 1View
$1,479eBayGraded909d agoJun 4View
$1,577Facebook MarketplaceGraded7218d agoJan 1View

Recent Sales

PriceMarketplaceConditionSold
$1,336TCGPlayerGraded1d ago
$1,353Facebook MarketplaceGraded2d ago
$1,397TCGPlayerGraded3d ago
$1,326TCGPlayerGraded4d ago
$1,463PWCCGraded5d ago
$1,376PWCCGraded5d ago
$1,311TCGPlayerGraded6d ago
$1,327Facebook MarketplaceGraded10d ago
$1,274PWCCGraded10d ago
$1,274eBayGraded13d ago
$1,198eBayGraded17d ago
$1,155MercariGraded23d ago

Signal Track Record

Did this asset's own Opportunity Scores precede outperformance? Each row is a past as-of date, scored point-in-time, with the realized benchmark-relative return that followed.

Data Provenance

Which signals on this page are real market data versus modeled by the deterministic engine. The terminal marks every source honestly.

Reference price
Simulated
Card image
Simulated
Recent sales
Simulated
Population data
Simulated
Liquidity metrics
Simulated
Price history
Simulated

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