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Ludicolo — Evolving Skies — Rare Holo

Ludicolo

Simulated

Ludicolo · Evolving Skies · Rare Holo · 34

Character: Ludicolo

high confidencebullish9030d 23.6%
Estimated Fair Value
$17.09
Lowest listing $17.45
Search live listings:eBay activeeBay soldTCGplayer active
Bear Case
$14.64
Base Case
$17.09
Bull Case
$19.69

Price History

Dec 8Range $50.26 – $73.33Jun 5

Opportunity Score

34
  • Price up 24% over 30 days+8 pts
  • Low active inventory+7 pts
  • Reputable seller+6 pts
  • High listing quality (near mint)+6 pts
  • High valuation confidence+5 pts
  • Strong demand (6 sales/mo)+2 pts

Investment Thesis

bullish90

Ludicolo is currently fairly valued, with rising price momentum over the last 30 days (+23.6%). Estimated fair value is $17 against a lowest active listing of $17. Valuation confidence is high based on 3-plus modeled comparable sales.

Bullish: rising prices (+23.6% over 30d) with thin liquidity and stable graded supply.

Risk Indicators

  • Thin liquidity — few active listings, wider spreads likely
Active Listings
3
Sales / Month
6.0
Velocity Score
30/100
Illiquid
Sales Velocity 30d
-7.8%
Confidence
71/100

Grading ROI & Population Trend

Is it worth paying to grade this card? A transparent profit model from the real ungraded cost and the audited graded value, plus a read on graded-supply momentum. The cost and odds levers are modeled assumptions you can adjust — not market-price pins.

Grading ROI (model)
-60.8%
Grading not economical
unknown population

No population data reported for this asset.

Raw cost
$17.45
All-in cost
$46.45+ $25.00 fee · $4.00 ship
Graded value (per gem)
$69.80
Expected proceeds
$18.2230% gem → $20.94 · less 13% fee
Net profit / card
-$28.23
Breakeven graded value
$178value needed to break even

Adjust modeled assumptions

These are modeled estimates, not market-price pins.

  • Modeled gem-grade odds: 30% chance of PSA 10 (a modeled probability, not a market price). Non-gem outcomes are valued conservatively at $0.
  • Modeled grading-service fee: $25.00 per card, plus $4.00 shipping/insurance (modeled service costs, not market prices).
  • Modeled marketplace sell fee: 13.0% of graded proceeds (a modeled cost, not a market price).
  • Raw cost and graded value trace to the existing audited references/pins — this panel authors no new market-price value.

Liquidity & Comp Explorer

How easily does this asset trade? Days-to-sell, sell-through rate, the spread between the lowest ask and the recent sold center, and inventory depth — all modeled over this asset's recorded sales and active listings. Explore the sale distribution with a date-range filter and an outlier-trim toggle.

Liquidity & Comp Explorer

Simulated
Days to sell
2.2dmodeled median sale gap
Sell-through
72.0%over 90d window
Bid-ask spread
+7.5%lowest ask vs sold avg
Inventory depth
5active listings
Recent sold avg
$63.50mean over 90d
Lowest ask
$68.24cheapest active listing

Comp Explorer

Min
$51.48
Median
$60.18
Mean
$59.75
Max
$72.48

Showing 28 of 29 sales · 1 outlier trimmed

These liquidity signals are modeled deterministically over this asset's existing recorded sales and active listings — they author no new market-price value. Days-to-sell, sell-through and the bid-ask spread are analytical reads over those comps, not a live order book.

How Fair Value Is Built

A transparent, weighted blend of market signals — no black boxes.

SignalDetailReferenceWeight
recent salesVolume-weighted average of recent sold comps16.3750%
listing inventoryAverage of active listing asking prices18.2725%
price trendRecent historical price trend projection18.4225%
demand momentumAdjustment for sales velocity momentum (rising demand raises value)-1.5520%

Active Listings

PriceMarketplaceConditionSellerListedEndsLink
$68.24eBayNear Mint8875d agoJan 1View
$72.70PWCCNear Mint8066d agoJan 1View
$73.60Facebook MarketplaceNear Mint8471d agoJun 6View
$76.17eBayNear Mint6372d agoJan 1View
$77.62Facebook MarketplaceNear Mint10067d agoJan 1View

Recent Sales

PriceMarketplaceConditionSold
$64.31eBayNear Mint54d ago
$64.45MercariNear Mint60d ago
$75.01PWCCNear Mint60d ago
$72.48eBayNear Mint62d ago
$61.98eBayNear Mint66d ago
$65.47TCGPlayerNear Mint67d ago
$64.59eBayNear Mint69d ago
$61.16TCGPlayerNear Mint72d ago
$60.85TCGPlayerNear Mint72d ago
$51.48MercariNear Mint79d ago
$59.99Facebook MarketplaceNear Mint83d ago
$60.37PWCCNear Mint83d ago

Signal Track Record

Did this asset's own Opportunity Scores precede outperformance? Each row is a past as-of date, scored point-in-time, with the realized benchmark-relative return that followed.

Data Provenance

Which signals on this page are real market data versus modeled by the deterministic engine. The terminal marks every source honestly.

Reference price
Simulated
Fair value basis
Simulated
Lowest ask (deal)
Simulated
Active listings
Simulated
Card image
Live
Recent sales
Simulated
Population data
Simulated
Liquidity metrics
Simulated
Liquidity analytics
Simulated
Price history
Simulated

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