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Tropius — Evolving Skies — Rare

Tropius

PSA 9Simulated

Tropius · Evolving Skies · Rare · 6

Character: Tropius

high confidencebearish3530d ▼9.8%
Estimated Fair Value
$39.18
Lowest listing $32.6016.8% below
Search live listings:eBay activeeBay soldTCGplayer active
Bear Case
$33.69
Base Case
$39.18
Bull Case
$44.75

Price History

Dec 8Range $56.49 – $95.00Jun 5

Opportunity Score

52
  • 17% below fair value+20 pts
  • High valuation confidence+6 pts
  • Reputable seller+6 pts
  • High listing quality (graded)+6 pts
  • Population growth slowing+6 pts
  • Strong demand (12 sales/mo)+4 pts
  • Low active inventory+3 pts
  • Sales accelerating+2 pts

Investment Thesis

bearish35

Tropius (PSA 9) is currently trading at a meaningful discount to fair value, with softening price momentum over the last 30 days (-9.8%). Estimated fair value is $39 against a lowest active listing of $33. Valuation confidence is high based on 7-plus modeled comparable sales.

Bearish: softening prices (-9.8% over 30d) amid healthy trading velocity and stable graded supply.

Active Listings
7
Sales / Month
11.5
Velocity Score
57/100
Moderate
Sales Velocity 30d
+3.7%
Total Graded
5,846
Gem Mint
3,045
Population Growth
+1.6%
Slowing

Grading ROI & Population Trend

Is it worth paying to grade this card? A transparent profit model from the real ungraded cost and the audited graded value, plus a read on graded-supply momentum. The cost and odds levers are modeled assumptions you can adjust — not market-price pins.

Grading ROI (model)
-83.4%
Grading not economical
slowing population

Population growth slowing to 0.9%/mo — supply tightening across 1574 graded.

1,574 graded · 51% gem · +0.9%/mo

Raw cost
$32.60
All-in cost
$61.60+ $25.00 fee · $4.00 ship
Graded value (per gem)
$39.18
Expected proceeds
$10.2330% gem → $11.75 · less 13% fee
Net profit / card
-$51.37
Breakeven graded value
$236value needed to break even

Adjust modeled assumptions

These are modeled estimates, not market-price pins.

  • Modeled gem-grade odds: 30% chance of PSA 9 (a modeled probability, not a market price). Non-gem outcomes are valued conservatively at $0.
  • Modeled grading-service fee: $25.00 per card, plus $4.00 shipping/insurance (modeled service costs, not market prices).
  • Modeled marketplace sell fee: 13.0% of graded proceeds (a modeled cost, not a market price).
  • Raw cost and graded value trace to the existing audited references/pins — this panel authors no new market-price value.

Liquidity & Comp Explorer

How easily does this asset trade? Days-to-sell, sell-through rate, the spread between the lowest ask and the recent sold center, and inventory depth — all modeled over this asset's recorded sales and active listings. Explore the sale distribution with a date-range filter and an outlier-trim toggle.

Liquidity & Comp Explorer

Simulated
Days to sell
0.6dmodeled median sale gap
Sell-through
63.0%over 90d window
Bid-ask spread
-12.3%lowest ask vs sold avg
Inventory depth
12active listings
Recent sold avg
$68.70mean over 90d
Lowest ask
$60.26cheapest active listing

Comp Explorer

Min
$59.55
Median
$71.93
Mean
$70.92
Max
$79.60

Showing 36 of 36 sales

These liquidity signals are modeled deterministically over this asset's existing recorded sales and active listings — they author no new market-price value. Days-to-sell, sell-through and the bid-ask spread are analytical reads over those comps, not a live order book.

How Fair Value Is Built

A transparent, weighted blend of market signals — no black boxes.

SignalDetailReferenceWeight
recent salesVolume-weighted average of recent sold comps40.2650%
listing inventoryAverage of active listing asking prices36.5425%
price trendRecent historical price trend projection39.7425%
population pressureAdjustment for grading population growth (more supply lowers value)-0.7850%
demand momentumAdjustment for sales velocity momentum (rising demand raises value)0.7320%

Active Listings

PriceMarketplaceConditionSellerListedEndsLink
$60.26TCGPlayerGraded8666d agoJan 1View
$60.79Facebook MarketplaceGraded8958d agoJun 8View
$62.80Facebook MarketplaceGraded7471d agoJun 8View
$63.36Facebook MarketplaceGraded8055d agoJan 1View
$65.09MercariGraded7858d agoJan 1View
$67.88eBayGraded9374d agoJan 1View
$69.64eBayGraded8563d agoJan 1View
$70.37MercariGraded8866d agoJan 1View
$70.70Facebook MarketplaceGraded7164d agoJan 1View
$70.82Facebook MarketplaceGraded8166d agoJan 1View
$71.15TCGPlayerGraded9075d agoJan 1View
$72.22TCGPlayerGraded8365d agoJan 1View

Recent Sales

PriceMarketplaceConditionSold
$69.62TCGPlayerGraded54d ago
$64.79Facebook MarketplaceGraded54d ago
$68.50PWCCGraded55d ago
$59.55Facebook MarketplaceGraded56d ago
$66.46MercariGraded56d ago
$64.06Facebook MarketplaceGraded59d ago
$66.53MercariGraded60d ago
$62.90TCGPlayerGraded60d ago
$68.98PWCCGraded63d ago
$69.91eBayGraded63d ago
$70.08Facebook MarketplaceGraded66d ago
$77.63Facebook MarketplaceGraded66d ago

Signal Track Record

Did this asset's own Opportunity Scores precede outperformance? Each row is a past as-of date, scored point-in-time, with the realized benchmark-relative return that followed.

Data Provenance

Which signals on this page are real market data versus modeled by the deterministic engine. The terminal marks every source honestly.

Reference price
Simulated
Fair value basis
Simulated
Lowest ask (deal)
Simulated
Active listings
Simulated
Card image
Live
Recent sales
Simulated
Population data
Simulated
Liquidity metrics
Simulated
Liquidity analytics
Simulated
Price history
Simulated

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