Ampharos
BGS 9SimulatedAmpharos · HeartGold SoulSilver · Rare · 14
Character: Ampharos
Price History
Opportunity Score
52- 10% below fair value+12 pts
- Sales accelerating+8 pts
- Reputable seller+7 pts
- Population growth slowing+6 pts
- Low active inventory+6 pts
- High listing quality (graded)+6 pts
- High valuation confidence+5 pts
- Strong demand (7 sales/mo)+2 pts
Investment Thesis
neutral52Ampharos (BGS 9) is currently modestly undervalued, with stable price momentum over the last 30 days (-0.7%). Estimated fair value is $30 against a lowest active listing of $27. Valuation confidence is high based on 4-plus modeled comparable sales.
Neutral: flat 30-day price action with thin liquidity and stable graded supply.
Grading ROI & Population Trend
Is it worth paying to grade this card? A transparent profit model from the real ungraded cost and the audited graded value, plus a read on graded-supply momentum. The cost and odds levers are modeled assumptions you can adjust — not market-price pins.
Population growing 5.9%/mo — supply expanding quickly across 4098 graded.
4,098 graded · 54% gem · +5.9%/mo
- Raw cost
- $26.94
- All-in cost
- $55.94+ $25.00 fee · $4.00 ship
- Graded value (per gem)
- $30.04
- Expected proceeds
- $7.8430% gem → $9.01 · less 13% fee
- Net profit / card
- -$48.10
- Breakeven graded value
- $214value needed to break even
Adjust modeled assumptions
These are modeled estimates, not market-price pins.
- Modeled gem-grade odds: 30% chance of BGS 9 (a modeled probability, not a market price). Non-gem outcomes are valued conservatively at $0.
- Modeled grading-service fee: $25.00 per card, plus $4.00 shipping/insurance (modeled service costs, not market prices).
- Modeled marketplace sell fee: 13.0% of graded proceeds (a modeled cost, not a market price).
- Raw cost and graded value trace to the existing audited references/pins — this panel authors no new market-price value.
Liquidity & Comp Explorer
How easily does this asset trade? Days-to-sell, sell-through rate, the spread between the lowest ask and the recent sold center, and inventory depth — all modeled over this asset's recorded sales and active listings. Explore the sale distribution with a date-range filter and an outlier-trim toggle.
Liquidity & Comp Explorer
- Days to sell
- 1.6dmodeled median sale gap
- Sell-through
- 81.0%over 90d window
- Bid-ask spread
- -9.0%lowest ask vs sold avg
- Inventory depth
- 3active listings
- Recent sold avg
- $117mean over 90d
- Lowest ask
- $106cheapest active listing
Comp Explorer
- Min
- $98.83
- Median
- $113
- Mean
- $113
- Max
- $134
Showing 16 of 17 sales · 1 outlier trimmed
These liquidity signals are modeled deterministically over this asset's existing recorded sales and active listings — they author no new market-price value. Days-to-sell, sell-through and the bid-ask spread are analytical reads over those comps, not a live order book.
How Fair Value Is Built
A transparent, weighted blend of market signals — no black boxes.
| Signal | Detail | Reference | Weight |
|---|---|---|---|
| recent sales | Volume-weighted average of recent sold comps | 28.47 | 50% |
| listing inventory | Average of active listing asking prices | 29 | 25% |
| price trend | Recent historical price trend projection | 30.42 | 25% |
| population pressure | Adjustment for grading population growth (more supply lowers value) | -0.49 | 50% |
| demand momentum | Adjustment for sales velocity momentum (rising demand raises value) | 3.77 | 20% |
Active Listings
Recent Sales
| Price | Marketplace | Condition | Sold |
|---|---|---|---|
| $100 | eBay | Graded | 59d ago |
| $101 | TCGPlayer | Graded | 64d ago |
| $109 | eBay | Graded | 65d ago |
| $137 | eBay | Graded | 70d ago |
| $130 | Facebook Marketplace | Graded | 72d ago |
| $134 | PWCC | Graded | 73d ago |
| $121 | Facebook Marketplace | Graded | 75d ago |
| $117 | TCGPlayer | Graded | 77d ago |
| $111 | eBay | Graded | 77d ago |
| $118 | eBay | Graded | 78d ago |
| $112 | Mercari | Graded | 82d ago |
| $113 | PWCC | Graded | 86d ago |
Signal Track Record
Did this asset's own Opportunity Scores precede outperformance? Each row is a past as-of date, scored point-in-time, with the realized benchmark-relative return that followed.
Data Provenance
Which signals on this page are real market data versus modeled by the deterministic engine. The terminal marks every source honestly.
- Reference price
- Simulated
- Fair value basis
- Simulated
- Lowest ask (deal)
- Simulated
- Active listings
- Simulated
- Card image
- Live
- Recent sales
- Simulated
- Population data
- Simulated
- Liquidity metrics
- Simulated
- Liquidity analytics
- Simulated
- Price history
- Simulated
Related Assets
Same character or set.
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|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
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 AzumarillHeartGold SoulSilverSimulated
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 ChanseyHeartGold SoulSilverPSA 10Simulated
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 FlaaffyHeartGold SoulSilverBGS 9Simulated
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 ClefairyHeartGold SoulSilverPSA 9Simulated
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