Heracross
SimulatedHeracross · HeartGold SoulSilver · Uncommon · 43
Character: Heracross
Price History
Opportunity Score
55- Sales accelerating+10 pts
- 8% below fair value+9 pts
- Reputable seller+7 pts
- Low active inventory+6 pts
- High valuation confidence+6 pts
- High listing quality (near mint)+6 pts
- Strong demand (19 sales/mo)+6 pts
- Price up 13% over 30 days+5 pts
Investment Thesis
bullish93Heracross is currently modestly undervalued, with rising price momentum over the last 30 days (+13.2%). Estimated fair value is $172 against a lowest active listing of $159. Valuation confidence is high based on 4-plus modeled comparable sales.
Bullish: rising prices (+13.2% over 30d) with healthy trading velocity and stable graded supply.
Grading ROI & Population Trend
Is it worth paying to grade this card? A transparent profit model from the real ungraded cost and the audited graded value, plus a read on graded-supply momentum. The cost and odds levers are modeled assumptions you can adjust — not market-price pins.
No population data reported for this asset.
- Raw cost
- $159
- All-in cost
- $188+ $25.00 fee · $4.00 ship
- Graded value (per gem)
- $634
- Expected proceeds
- $16530% gem → $190 · less 13% fee
- Net profit / card
- -$22.03
- Breakeven graded value
- $718value needed to break even
Adjust modeled assumptions
These are modeled estimates, not market-price pins.
- Modeled gem-grade odds: 30% chance of PSA 10 (a modeled probability, not a market price). Non-gem outcomes are valued conservatively at $0.
- Modeled grading-service fee: $25.00 per card, plus $4.00 shipping/insurance (modeled service costs, not market prices).
- Modeled marketplace sell fee: 13.0% of graded proceeds (a modeled cost, not a market price).
- Raw cost and graded value trace to the existing audited references/pins — this panel authors no new market-price value.
Liquidity & Comp Explorer
How easily does this asset trade? Days-to-sell, sell-through rate, the spread between the lowest ask and the recent sold center, and inventory depth — all modeled over this asset's recorded sales and active listings. Explore the sale distribution with a date-range filter and an outlier-trim toggle.
Liquidity & Comp Explorer
- Days to sell
- 7.0dmodeled median sale gap
- Sell-through
- 25.0%over 90d window
- Bid-ask spread
- -1.4%lowest ask vs sold avg
- Inventory depth
- 18active listings
- Recent sold avg
- $89.24mean over 90d
- Lowest ask
- $87.99cheapest active listing
Comp Explorer
- Min
- $77.12
- Median
- $83.11
- Mean
- $87.73
- Max
- $105
Showing 11 of 11 sales
These liquidity signals are modeled deterministically over this asset's existing recorded sales and active listings — they author no new market-price value. Days-to-sell, sell-through and the bid-ask spread are analytical reads over those comps, not a live order book.
How Fair Value Is Built
A transparent, weighted blend of market signals — no black boxes.
| Signal | Detail | Reference | Weight |
|---|---|---|---|
| recent sales | Volume-weighted average of recent sold comps | 153.96 | 50% |
| listing inventory | Average of active listing asking prices | 180.96 | 25% |
| price trend | Recent historical price trend projection | 165.26 | 25% |
| demand momentum | Adjustment for sales velocity momentum (rising demand raises value) | 4.93 | 20% |
Active Listings
| Price | Marketplace | Condition | Seller | Listed | Ends | Link |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| $87.99 | Facebook Marketplace | Near Mint | 76 | 61d ago | Jan 1 | View |
| $88.17 | PWCC | Near Mint | 84 | 60d ago | Jan 1 | View |
| $88.55 | eBay | Near Mint | 85 | 69d ago | Jan 1 | View |
| $89.83 | Facebook Marketplace | Near Mint | 64 | 61d ago | Jan 1 | View |
| $90.71 | TCGPlayer | Near Mint | 93 | 64d ago | Jan 1 | View |
| $91.10 | TCGPlayer | Near Mint | 100 | 73d ago | Jun 6 | View |
| $94.47 | TCGPlayer | Near Mint | 84 | 71d ago | Jan 1 | View |
| $95.40 | TCGPlayer | Near Mint | 70 | 61d ago | Jun 7 | View |
| $103 | PWCC | Near Mint | 98 | 56d ago | Jan 1 | View |
| $105 | Mercari | Near Mint | 66 | 62d ago | Jan 1 | View |
| $105 | Mercari | Near Mint | 80 | 71d ago | Jan 1 | View |
| $110 | Facebook Marketplace | Near Mint | 71 | 71d ago | Jun 7 | View |
Recent Sales
| Price | Marketplace | Condition | Sold |
|---|---|---|---|
| $103 | PWCC | Near Mint | 57d ago |
| $105 | PWCC | Near Mint | 57d ago |
| $89.06 | TCGPlayer | Near Mint | 71d ago |
| $79.51 | PWCC | Near Mint | 78d ago |
| $77.12 | Facebook Marketplace | Near Mint | 80d ago |
| $81.73 | Mercari | Near Mint | 87d ago |
| $82.99 | PWCC | Near Mint | 95d ago |
| $95.36 | PWCC | Near Mint | 101d ago |
| $86.46 | TCGPlayer | Near Mint | 108d ago |
| $81.63 | Mercari | Near Mint | 112d ago |
| $83.11 | eBay | Near Mint | 114d ago |
Signal Track Record
Did this asset's own Opportunity Scores precede outperformance? Each row is a past as-of date, scored point-in-time, with the realized benchmark-relative return that followed.
Data Provenance
Which signals on this page are real market data versus modeled by the deterministic engine. The terminal marks every source honestly.
- Reference price
- Simulated
- Fair value basis
- Simulated
- Lowest ask (deal)
- Simulated
- Active listings
- Simulated
- Card image
- Live
- Recent sales
- Simulated
- Population data
- Simulated
- Liquidity metrics
- Simulated
- Liquidity analytics
- Simulated
- Price history
- Simulated
Related Assets
Same character or set.
| Asset | Fair Value | Lowest | Discount | 30d | Avail | Score |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
 LaprasHeartGold SoulSilverSimulated
| $181 | $180 | 0.7% | 9.1% | 7 | 34 |
 AzumarillHeartGold SoulSilverSimulated
| $103 | $89.98 | 12.5% | 3.9% | 13 | 40 |
 ChanseyHeartGold SoulSilverPSA 10Simulated
| $265 | $223 | 15.9% | 18.9% | 15 | 52 |
 FlaaffyHeartGold SoulSilverBGS 9Simulated
| $192 | $183 | 4.6% | 11.9% | 15 | 36 |
 ClefairyHeartGold SoulSilverPSA 9Simulated
| $115 | $102 | 10.9% | 2.8% | 14 | 43 |
 Farfetch'dHeartGold SoulSilverCGC 10Simulated
| $164 | $127 | 22.3% | 24.2% | 21 | 62 |