Lapras
SimulatedLapras · HeartGold SoulSilver · Rare · 24
Character: Lapras
Price History
Opportunity Score
40- 9% below fair value+11 pts
- Reputable seller+7 pts
- High listing quality (near mint)+6 pts
- High valuation confidence+5 pts
- Sales accelerating+5 pts
- Price up 11% over 30 days+4 pts
- Strong demand (5 sales/mo)+2 pts
Investment Thesis
bullish77Lapras is currently modestly undervalued, with rising price momentum over the last 30 days (+10.7%). Estimated fair value is $177 against a lowest active listing of $160. Valuation confidence is high based on 12-plus modeled comparable sales.
Bullish: rising prices (+10.7% over 30d) with thin liquidity and stable graded supply.
Grading ROI & Population Trend
Is it worth paying to grade this card? A transparent profit model from the real ungraded cost and the audited graded value, plus a read on graded-supply momentum. The cost and odds levers are modeled assumptions you can adjust — not market-price pins.
No population data reported for this asset.
- Raw cost
- $160
- All-in cost
- $189+ $25.00 fee · $4.00 ship
- Graded value (per gem)
- $641
- Expected proceeds
- $16730% gem → $192 · less 13% fee
- Net profit / card
- -$21.95
- Breakeven graded value
- $725value needed to break even
Adjust modeled assumptions
These are modeled estimates, not market-price pins.
- Modeled gem-grade odds: 30% chance of PSA 10 (a modeled probability, not a market price). Non-gem outcomes are valued conservatively at $0.
- Modeled grading-service fee: $25.00 per card, plus $4.00 shipping/insurance (modeled service costs, not market prices).
- Modeled marketplace sell fee: 13.0% of graded proceeds (a modeled cost, not a market price).
- Raw cost and graded value trace to the existing audited references/pins — this panel authors no new market-price value.
Liquidity & Comp Explorer
How easily does this asset trade? Days-to-sell, sell-through rate, the spread between the lowest ask and the recent sold center, and inventory depth — all modeled over this asset's recorded sales and active listings. Explore the sale distribution with a date-range filter and an outlier-trim toggle.
Liquidity & Comp Explorer
- Days to sell
- 1.4dmodeled median sale gap
- Sell-through
- 48.0%over 90d window
- Bid-ask spread
- -37.1%lowest ask vs sold avg
- Inventory depth
- 16active listings
- Recent sold avg
- $101mean over 90d
- Lowest ask
- $63.64cheapest active listing
Comp Explorer
- Min
- $75.90
- Median
- $120
- Mean
- $116
- Max
- $146
Showing 32 of 32 sales
These liquidity signals are modeled deterministically over this asset's existing recorded sales and active listings — they author no new market-price value. Days-to-sell, sell-through and the bid-ask spread are analytical reads over those comps, not a live order book.
How Fair Value Is Built
A transparent, weighted blend of market signals — no black boxes.
| Signal | Detail | Reference | Weight |
|---|---|---|---|
| recent sales | Volume-weighted average of recent sold comps | 166.94 | 50% |
| listing inventory | Average of active listing asking prices | 182.39 | 25% |
| price trend | Recent historical price trend projection | 173.87 | 25% |
| demand momentum | Adjustment for sales velocity momentum (rising demand raises value) | 2.48 | 20% |
Active Listings
| Price | Marketplace | Condition | Seller | Listed | Ends | Link |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| $63.64 | Mercari | Near Mint | 76 | 56d ago | Jun 6 | View |
| $64.65 | PWCC | Near Mint | 91 | 55d ago | Jan 1 | View |
| $65.72 | PWCC | Near Mint | 91 | 56d ago | Jan 1 | View |
| $67.54 | PWCC | Near Mint | 72 | 64d ago | Jun 7 | View |
| $68.25 | TCGPlayer | Near Mint | 63 | 73d ago | Jan 1 | View |
| $70.05 | eBay | Near Mint | 73 | 73d ago | Jan 1 | View |
| $72.15 | TCGPlayer | Near Mint | 77 | 55d ago | Jun 9 | View |
| $75.78 | Mercari | Near Mint | 63 | 55d ago | Jan 1 | View |
| $77.01 | PWCC | Near Mint | 63 | 58d ago | Jun 7 | View |
| $78.20 | eBay | Near Mint | 87 | 68d ago | Jun 10 | View |
| $78.26 | eBay | Near Mint | 70 | 66d ago | Jan 1 | View |
| $80.71 | TCGPlayer | Near Mint | 89 | 62d ago | Jun 8 | View |
Recent Sales
| Price | Marketplace | Condition | Sold |
|---|---|---|---|
| $75.90 | PWCC | Near Mint | 55d ago |
| $80.14 | Facebook Marketplace | Near Mint | 56d ago |
| $77.94 | PWCC | Near Mint | 57d ago |
| $103 | Mercari | Near Mint | 61d ago |
| $95.17 | eBay | Near Mint | 68d ago |
| $103 | PWCC | Near Mint | 68d ago |
| $97.98 | eBay | Near Mint | 69d ago |
| $111 | Mercari | Near Mint | 72d ago |
| $102 | eBay | Near Mint | 72d ago |
| $110 | eBay | Near Mint | 74d ago |
| $109 | TCGPlayer | Near Mint | 74d ago |
| $102 | TCGPlayer | Near Mint | 75d ago |
Signal Track Record
Did this asset's own Opportunity Scores precede outperformance? Each row is a past as-of date, scored point-in-time, with the realized benchmark-relative return that followed.
Data Provenance
Which signals on this page are real market data versus modeled by the deterministic engine. The terminal marks every source honestly.
- Reference price
- Simulated
- Fair value basis
- Simulated
- Lowest ask (deal)
- Simulated
- Active listings
- Simulated
- Card image
- Live
- Recent sales
- Simulated
- Population data
- Simulated
- Liquidity metrics
- Simulated
- Liquidity analytics
- Simulated
- Price history
- Simulated
Related Assets
Same character or set.
| Asset | Fair Value | Lowest | Discount | 30d | Avail | Score |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
 HeracrossHeartGold SoulSilverSimulated
| $170 | $181 | -6.5% | 16.6% | 2 | 46 |
 AzumarillHeartGold SoulSilverSimulated
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 ChanseyHeartGold SoulSilverPSA 10Simulated
| $251 | $264 | -5.0% | 18.4% | 2 | 35 |
 FlaaffyHeartGold SoulSilverBGS 9Simulated
| $189 | $181 | 4.4% | 8.2% | 19 | 32 |
 ClefairyHeartGold SoulSilverPSA 9Simulated
| $126 | $103 | 18.0% | 1.4% | 13 | 58 |
 Farfetch'dHeartGold SoulSilverCGC 10Simulated
| $166 | $134 | 19.6% | 14.9% | 20 | 60 |