Clefairy
PSA 9SimulatedClefairy · HeartGold SoulSilver · Common · 60
Character: Clefairy
Price History
Opportunity Score
43- 10% below fair value+12 pts
- Reputable seller+7 pts
- Low active inventory+6 pts
- High listing quality (graded)+6 pts
- High valuation confidence+6 pts
- Strong demand (17 sales/mo)+5 pts
- Price up 3% over 30 days+1 pts
Investment Thesis
bullish63Clefairy (PSA 9) is currently modestly undervalued, with stable price momentum over the last 30 days (+2.8%). Estimated fair value is $112 against a lowest active listing of $101. Valuation confidence is high based on 4-plus modeled comparable sales.
Bullish: flat 30-day price action with healthy trading velocity and rising graded population (5.0%/mo).
Risk Indicators
- Rising graded population may pressure prices
Grading ROI & Population Trend
Is it worth paying to grade this card? A transparent profit model from the real ungraded cost and the audited graded value, plus a read on graded-supply momentum. The cost and odds levers are modeled assumptions you can adjust — not market-price pins.
Population growth slowing to 0.2%/mo — supply tightening across 771 graded.
771 graded · 31% gem · +0.2%/mo
- Raw cost
- $101
- All-in cost
- $130+ $25.00 fee · $4.00 ship
- Graded value (per gem)
- $112
- Expected proceeds
- $29.3230% gem → $33.70 · less 13% fee
- Net profit / card
- -$100.85
- Breakeven graded value
- $499value needed to break even
Adjust modeled assumptions
These are modeled estimates, not market-price pins.
- Modeled gem-grade odds: 30% chance of PSA 9 (a modeled probability, not a market price). Non-gem outcomes are valued conservatively at $0.
- Modeled grading-service fee: $25.00 per card, plus $4.00 shipping/insurance (modeled service costs, not market prices).
- Modeled marketplace sell fee: 13.0% of graded proceeds (a modeled cost, not a market price).
- Raw cost and graded value trace to the existing audited references/pins — this panel authors no new market-price value.
Liquidity & Comp Explorer
How easily does this asset trade? Days-to-sell, sell-through rate, the spread between the lowest ask and the recent sold center, and inventory depth — all modeled over this asset's recorded sales and active listings. Explore the sale distribution with a date-range filter and an outlier-trim toggle.
Liquidity & Comp Explorer
- Days to sell
- 1.4dmodeled median sale gap
- Sell-through
- 46.0%over 90d window
- Bid-ask spread
- -20.5%lowest ask vs sold avg
- Inventory depth
- 21active listings
- Recent sold avg
- $119mean over 90d
- Lowest ask
- $94.34cheapest active listing
Comp Explorer
- Min
- $103
- Median
- $122
- Mean
- $122
- Max
- $144
Showing 29 of 30 sales · 1 outlier trimmed
These liquidity signals are modeled deterministically over this asset's existing recorded sales and active listings — they author no new market-price value. Days-to-sell, sell-through and the bid-ask spread are analytical reads over those comps, not a live order book.
How Fair Value Is Built
A transparent, weighted blend of market signals — no black boxes.
| Signal | Detail | Reference | Weight |
|---|---|---|---|
| recent sales | Volume-weighted average of recent sold comps | 114.53 | 50% |
| listing inventory | Average of active listing asking prices | 112.59 | 25% |
| price trend | Recent historical price trend projection | 124.37 | 25% |
| population pressure | Adjustment for grading population growth (more supply lowers value) | -2.51 | 50% |
| demand momentum | Adjustment for sales velocity momentum (rising demand raises value) | -1.11 | 20% |
Active Listings
| Price | Marketplace | Condition | Seller | Listed | Ends | Link |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| $94.34 | Facebook Marketplace | Graded | 85 | 61d ago | Jan 1 | View |
| $95.28 | Mercari | Graded | 88 | 67d ago | Jun 6 | View |
| $96.02 | PWCC | Graded | 68 | 69d ago | Jun 7 | View |
| $97.63 | Mercari | Graded | 92 | 57d ago | Jan 1 | View |
| $101 | TCGPlayer | Graded | 65 | 69d ago | Jan 1 | View |
| $104 | Facebook Marketplace | Graded | 64 | 59d ago | Jan 1 | View |
| $107 | TCGPlayer | Graded | 91 | 69d ago | Jan 1 | View |
| $107 | eBay | Graded | 65 | 71d ago | Jan 1 | View |
| $111 | PWCC | Graded | 86 | 72d ago | Jan 1 | View |
| $113 | TCGPlayer | Graded | 85 | 73d ago | Jan 1 | View |
| $113 | Facebook Marketplace | Graded | 71 | 58d ago | Jun 8 | View |
| $115 | eBay | Graded | 89 | 71d ago | Jan 1 | View |
Recent Sales
| Price | Marketplace | Condition | Sold |
|---|---|---|---|
| $104 | Mercari | Graded | 56d ago |
| $108 | TCGPlayer | Graded | 57d ago |
| $103 | Facebook Marketplace | Graded | 60d ago |
| $116 | eBay | Graded | 61d ago |
| $110 | eBay | Graded | 62d ago |
| $106 | Facebook Marketplace | Graded | 62d ago |
| $113 | eBay | Graded | 64d ago |
| $117 | TCGPlayer | Graded | 65d ago |
| $110 | TCGPlayer | Graded | 66d ago |
| $137 | Facebook Marketplace | Graded | 70d ago |
| $121 | eBay | Graded | 71d ago |
| $130 | PWCC | Graded | 73d ago |
Signal Track Record
Did this asset's own Opportunity Scores precede outperformance? Each row is a past as-of date, scored point-in-time, with the realized benchmark-relative return that followed.
Data Provenance
Which signals on this page are real market data versus modeled by the deterministic engine. The terminal marks every source honestly.
- Reference price
- Simulated
- Fair value basis
- Simulated
- Lowest ask (deal)
- Simulated
- Active listings
- Simulated
- Card image
- Live
- Recent sales
- Simulated
- Population data
- Simulated
- Liquidity metrics
- Simulated
- Liquidity analytics
- Simulated
- Price history
- Simulated
Related Assets
Same character or set.
| Asset | Fair Value | Lowest | Discount | 30d | Avail | Score |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
 HeracrossHeartGold SoulSilverSimulated
| $163 | $151 | 7.1% | 13.2% | 8 | 40 |
 LaprasHeartGold SoulSilverSimulated
| $166 | $159 | 3.9% | 9.1% | 6 | 30 |
 AzumarillHeartGold SoulSilverSimulated
| $105 | $90.82 | 13.9% | 3.9% | 5 | 47 |
 ChanseyHeartGold SoulSilverPSA 10Simulated
| $242 | $220 | 9.0% | 18.9% | 9 | 35 |
 FlaaffyHeartGold SoulSilverBGS 9Simulated
| $185 | $177 | 4.2% | 11.9% | 13 | 29 |
 Farfetch'dHeartGold SoulSilverCGC 10Simulated
| $155 | $126 | 18.2% | 24.2% | 19 | 51 |