Chansey
PSA 10SimulatedChansey · HeartGold SoulSilver · Common · 58
Character: Chansey
Price History
Opportunity Score
49- 13% below fair value+15 pts
- Population growth slowing+8 pts
- Low active inventory+6 pts
- High listing quality (graded)+6 pts
- High valuation confidence+6 pts
- Reputable seller+5 pts
- Strong demand (10 sales/mo)+3 pts
Investment Thesis
bearish23Chansey (PSA 10) is currently modestly undervalued, with softening price momentum over the last 30 days (-18.4%). Estimated fair value is $262 against a lowest active listing of $229. Valuation confidence is high based on 4-plus modeled comparable sales.
Bearish: softening prices (-18.4% over 30d) amid healthy trading velocity and stable graded supply.
Risk Indicators
- Negative price momentum over the last 30 days
Grading ROI & Population Trend
Is it worth paying to grade this card? A transparent profit model from the real ungraded cost and the audited graded value, plus a read on graded-supply momentum. The cost and odds levers are modeled assumptions you can adjust — not market-price pins.
Population growing 5.0%/mo — supply expanding quickly across 2340 graded.
2,340 graded · 52% gem · +5.0%/mo
- Raw cost
- $229
- All-in cost
- $258+ $25.00 fee · $4.00 ship
- Graded value (per gem)
- $262
- Expected proceeds
- $68.3130% gem → $78.52 · less 13% fee
- Net profit / card
- -$189.39
- Breakeven graded value
- $987value needed to break even
Adjust modeled assumptions
These are modeled estimates, not market-price pins.
- Modeled gem-grade odds: 30% chance of PSA 10 (a modeled probability, not a market price). Non-gem outcomes are valued conservatively at $0.
- Modeled grading-service fee: $25.00 per card, plus $4.00 shipping/insurance (modeled service costs, not market prices).
- Modeled marketplace sell fee: 13.0% of graded proceeds (a modeled cost, not a market price).
- Raw cost and graded value trace to the existing audited references/pins — this panel authors no new market-price value.
Liquidity & Comp Explorer
How easily does this asset trade? Days-to-sell, sell-through rate, the spread between the lowest ask and the recent sold center, and inventory depth — all modeled over this asset's recorded sales and active listings. Explore the sale distribution with a date-range filter and an outlier-trim toggle.
Liquidity & Comp Explorer
- Days to sell
- 0.7dmodeled median sale gap
- Sell-through
- 56.0%over 90d window
- Bid-ask spread
- -3.9%lowest ask vs sold avg
- Inventory depth
- 22active listings
- Recent sold avg
- $201mean over 90d
- Lowest ask
- $193cheapest active listing
Comp Explorer
- Min
- $162
- Median
- $207
- Mean
- $205
- Max
- $247
Showing 38 of 38 sales
These liquidity signals are modeled deterministically over this asset's existing recorded sales and active listings — they author no new market-price value. Days-to-sell, sell-through and the bid-ask spread are analytical reads over those comps, not a live order book.
How Fair Value Is Built
A transparent, weighted blend of market signals — no black boxes.
| Signal | Detail | Reference | Weight |
|---|---|---|---|
| recent sales | Volume-weighted average of recent sold comps | 279 | 50% |
| listing inventory | Average of active listing asking prices | 262.37 | 25% |
| price trend | Recent historical price trend projection | 241.99 | 25% |
| population pressure | Adjustment for grading population growth (more supply lowers value) | 0.12 | 50% |
| demand momentum | Adjustment for sales velocity momentum (rising demand raises value) | -1.58 | 20% |
Active Listings
| Price | Marketplace | Condition | Seller | Listed | Ends | Link |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| $193 | eBay | Graded | 81 | 55d ago | Jan 1 | View |
| $196 | PWCC | Graded | 72 | 69d ago | Jan 1 | View |
| $197 | Mercari | Graded | 92 | 57d ago | Jan 1 | View |
| $198 | PWCC | Graded | 71 | 59d ago | Jan 1 | View |
| $202 | PWCC | Graded | 92 | 55d ago | Jan 1 | View |
| $202 | Facebook Marketplace | Graded | 75 | 73d ago | Jan 1 | View |
| $202 | TCGPlayer | Graded | 91 | 57d ago | Jan 1 | View |
| $203 | TCGPlayer | Graded | 86 | 72d ago | Jan 1 | View |
| $207 | eBay | Graded | 60 | 67d ago | Jun 6 | View |
| $222 | Mercari | Graded | 86 | 71d ago | Jun 10 | View |
| $224 | Facebook Marketplace | Graded | 61 | 63d ago | Jan 1 | View |
| $226 | eBay | Graded | 94 | 66d ago | Jan 1 | View |
Recent Sales
| Price | Marketplace | Condition | Sold |
|---|---|---|---|
| $209 | Mercari | Graded | 55d ago |
| $232 | Mercari | Graded | 55d ago |
| $203 | eBay | Graded | 55d ago |
| $210 | TCGPlayer | Graded | 59d ago |
| $212 | TCGPlayer | Graded | 60d ago |
| $225 | PWCC | Graded | 65d ago |
| $224 | PWCC | Graded | 66d ago |
| $236 | Facebook Marketplace | Graded | 66d ago |
| $222 | Mercari | Graded | 67d ago |
| $207 | eBay | Graded | 67d ago |
| $233 | PWCC | Graded | 69d ago |
| $209 | TCGPlayer | Graded | 70d ago |
Signal Track Record
Did this asset's own Opportunity Scores precede outperformance? Each row is a past as-of date, scored point-in-time, with the realized benchmark-relative return that followed.
Data Provenance
Which signals on this page are real market data versus modeled by the deterministic engine. The terminal marks every source honestly.
- Reference price
- Simulated
- Fair value basis
- Simulated
- Lowest ask (deal)
- Simulated
- Active listings
- Simulated
- Card image
- Live
- Recent sales
- Simulated
- Population data
- Simulated
- Liquidity metrics
- Simulated
- Liquidity analytics
- Simulated
- Price history
- Simulated
Related Assets
Same character or set.
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|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
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 LaprasHeartGold SoulSilverSimulated
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 AzumarillHeartGold SoulSilverSimulated
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 FlaaffyHeartGold SoulSilverBGS 9Simulated
| $197 | $175 | 11.5% | 8.2% | 14 | 46 |
 | $307 | $282 | 8.0% | 16.7% | 3 | 48 |
 ClefairyHeartGold SoulSilverPSA 9Simulated
| $118 | $98.04 | 16.8% | 1.4% | 23 | 52 |