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Greninja ex (Special Illustration)

Simulated

Greninja ex (Special Illustration) · Fossil · Special Illustration Rare · 21/62

Character: Greninja

high confidencebearish2630d 26.2%
Estimated Fair Value
$562
Lowest listing $48014.5% below
Bear Case
$462
Base Case
$562
Bull Case
$655

Price History

Dec 2Range $493 – $846May 30

Opportunity Score

40
  • 15% below fair value+17 pts
  • High valuation confidence+7 pts
  • Reputable seller+6 pts
  • High listing quality (near mint)+6 pts
  • Strong demand (14 sales/mo)+4 pts

Investment Thesis

bearish26

Greninja ex (Special Illustration) is currently modestly undervalued, with softening price momentum over the last 30 days (-26.2%). Estimated fair value is $562 against a lowest active listing of $480. Valuation confidence is high based on 16-plus recent comparable sales.

Bearish: softening prices (-26.2% over 30d) amid healthy trading velocity and stable graded supply.

Risk Indicators

  • Negative price momentum over the last 30 days
Active Listings
16
Sales / Month
14.0
Velocity Score
70/100
Fast-moving
Sales Velocity 30d
+1.9%
Confidence
96/100

How Fair Value Is Built

A transparent, weighted blend of market signals — no black boxes.

SignalDetailReferenceWeight
recent salesVolume-weighted average of recent sold comps594.7650%
listing inventoryAverage of active listing asking prices555.8925%
price trendRecent historical price trend projection492.6625%
demand momentumAdjustment for sales velocity momentum (rising demand raises value)0.3820%

Active Listings

PriceMarketplaceConditionSellerListedEndsLink
$553eBayNear Mint7318d agoMay 31View
$556Facebook MarketplaceNear Mint653d agoJan 1View
$559MercariNear Mint9316d agoJan 1View
$593MercariNear Mint9621d agoJan 1View
$617PWCCNear Mint705d agoJan 1View
$628MercariNear Mint9914d agoJan 1View
$638TCGPlayerNear Mint959d agoJun 2View
$649eBayNear Mint6323h agoJan 1View
$650PWCCNear Mint737d agoJan 1View
$655PWCCNear Mint6412d agoJun 3View
$655Facebook MarketplaceNear Mint918d agoJun 1View
$657MercariNear Mint7319d agoJan 1View

Recent Sales

PriceMarketplaceConditionSold
$651MercariNear Mint2d ago
$663eBayNear Mint3d ago
$645PWCCNear Mint3d ago
$622Facebook MarketplaceNear Mint4d ago
$629Facebook MarketplaceNear Mint11d ago
$555MercariNear Mint13d ago
$582eBayNear Mint30d ago
$534eBayNear Mint31d ago
$583MercariNear Mint36d ago
$617eBayNear Mint38d ago
$684MercariNear Mint40d ago
$656PWCCNear Mint46d ago

Signal Track Record

Did this asset's own Opportunity Scores precede outperformance? Each row is a past as-of date, scored point-in-time, with the realized benchmark-relative return that followed.

Data Provenance

Which signals on this page are real market data versus modeled by the deterministic engine. The terminal marks every source honestly.

Reference price
Simulated
Card image
Simulated
Recent sales
Simulated
Population data
Simulated
Liquidity metrics
Simulated
Price history
Simulated

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