Azumarill
SimulatedAzumarill · HeartGold SoulSilver · Rare Holo · 2
Character: Azumarill
Price History
Opportunity Score
38- 10% below fair value+12 pts
- High valuation confidence+7 pts
- High listing quality (near mint)+6 pts
- Reputable seller+5 pts
- Price up 11% over 30 days+5 pts
- Strong demand (11 sales/mo)+3 pts
Investment Thesis
bullish83Azumarill is currently modestly undervalued, with rising price momentum over the last 30 days (+11.5%). Estimated fair value is $103 against a lowest active listing of $92. Valuation confidence is high based on 21-plus modeled comparable sales.
Bullish: rising prices (+11.5% over 30d) with healthy trading velocity and stable graded supply.
Grading ROI & Population Trend
Is it worth paying to grade this card? A transparent profit model from the real ungraded cost and the audited graded value, plus a read on graded-supply momentum. The cost and odds levers are modeled assumptions you can adjust — not market-price pins.
No population data reported for this asset.
- Raw cost
- $92.39
- All-in cost
- $121+ $25.00 fee · $4.00 ship
- Graded value (per gem)
- $370
- Expected proceeds
- $96.4630% gem → $111 · less 13% fee
- Net profit / card
- -$24.93
- Breakeven graded value
- $465value needed to break even
Adjust modeled assumptions
These are modeled estimates, not market-price pins.
- Modeled gem-grade odds: 30% chance of PSA 10 (a modeled probability, not a market price). Non-gem outcomes are valued conservatively at $0.
- Modeled grading-service fee: $25.00 per card, plus $4.00 shipping/insurance (modeled service costs, not market prices).
- Modeled marketplace sell fee: 13.0% of graded proceeds (a modeled cost, not a market price).
- Raw cost and graded value trace to the existing audited references/pins — this panel authors no new market-price value.
Liquidity & Comp Explorer
How easily does this asset trade? Days-to-sell, sell-through rate, the spread between the lowest ask and the recent sold center, and inventory depth — all modeled over this asset's recorded sales and active listings. Explore the sale distribution with a date-range filter and an outlier-trim toggle.
Liquidity & Comp Explorer
- Days to sell
- 2.5dmodeled median sale gap
- Sell-through
- 40.0%over 90d window
- Bid-ask spread
- -12.7%lowest ask vs sold avg
- Inventory depth
- 15active listings
- Recent sold avg
- $77.59mean over 90d
- Lowest ask
- $67.77cheapest active listing
Comp Explorer
- Min
- $69.53
- Median
- $77.62
- Mean
- $79.23
- Max
- $89.18
Showing 21 of 21 sales
These liquidity signals are modeled deterministically over this asset's existing recorded sales and active listings — they author no new market-price value. Days-to-sell, sell-through and the bid-ask spread are analytical reads over those comps, not a live order book.
How Fair Value Is Built
A transparent, weighted blend of market signals — no black boxes.
| Signal | Detail | Reference | Weight |
|---|---|---|---|
| recent sales | Volume-weighted average of recent sold comps | 101.01 | 50% |
| listing inventory | Average of active listing asking prices | 107.02 | 25% |
| price trend | Recent historical price trend projection | 106.69 | 25% |
| demand momentum | Adjustment for sales velocity momentum (rising demand raises value) | -0.77 | 20% |
Active Listings
| Price | Marketplace | Condition | Seller | Listed | Ends | Link |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| $67.77 | Facebook Marketplace | Near Mint | 85 | 75d ago | Jun 7 | View |
| $68.68 | PWCC | Near Mint | 83 | 58d ago | Jun 6 | View |
| $68.86 | eBay | Near Mint | 79 | 58d ago | Jan 1 | View |
| $69.26 | Facebook Marketplace | Near Mint | 82 | 57d ago | Jan 1 | View |
| $71.19 | eBay | Near Mint | 87 | 59d ago | Jan 1 | View |
| $71.73 | Mercari | Near Mint | 73 | 70d ago | Jan 1 | View |
| $76.79 | TCGPlayer | Near Mint | 72 | 70d ago | Jan 1 | View |
| $76.85 | PWCC | Near Mint | 94 | 56d ago | Jan 1 | View |
| $76.92 | Facebook Marketplace | Near Mint | 78 | 67d ago | Jan 1 | View |
| $77.26 | Facebook Marketplace | Near Mint | 93 | 72d ago | Jan 1 | View |
| $77.81 | PWCC | Near Mint | 74 | 66d ago | Jan 1 | View |
| $78.29 | eBay | Near Mint | 96 | 75d ago | Jan 1 | View |
Recent Sales
| Price | Marketplace | Condition | Sold |
|---|---|---|---|
| $76.30 | Mercari | Near Mint | 58d ago |
| $85.69 | Mercari | Near Mint | 61d ago |
| $84.72 | eBay | Near Mint | 64d ago |
| $74.06 | Mercari | Near Mint | 64d ago |
| $81.21 | eBay | Near Mint | 66d ago |
| $74.05 | TCGPlayer | Near Mint | 67d ago |
| $73.28 | Facebook Marketplace | Near Mint | 68d ago |
| $75.26 | TCGPlayer | Near Mint | 71d ago |
| $77.94 | TCGPlayer | Near Mint | 79d ago |
| $73.37 | PWCC | Near Mint | 84d ago |
| $88.08 | Mercari | Near Mint | 91d ago |
| $82.14 | eBay | Near Mint | 91d ago |
Signal Track Record
Did this asset's own Opportunity Scores precede outperformance? Each row is a past as-of date, scored point-in-time, with the realized benchmark-relative return that followed.
Data Provenance
Which signals on this page are real market data versus modeled by the deterministic engine. The terminal marks every source honestly.
- Reference price
- Simulated
- Fair value basis
- Simulated
- Lowest ask (deal)
- Simulated
- Active listings
- Simulated
- Card image
- Live
- Recent sales
- Simulated
- Population data
- Simulated
- Liquidity metrics
- Simulated
- Liquidity analytics
- Simulated
- Price history
- Simulated
Related Assets
Same character or set.
| Asset | Fair Value | Lowest | Discount | 30d | Avail | Score |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
 HeracrossHeartGold SoulSilverSimulated
| $169 | $147 | 13.2% | 16.6% | 18 | 54 |
 LaprasHeartGold SoulSilverSimulated
| $179 | $163 | 9.3% | 10.7% | 12 | 40 |
 ChanseyHeartGold SoulSilverPSA 10Simulated
| $262 | $229 | 12.6% | 18.4% | 4 | 49 |
 FlaaffyHeartGold SoulSilverBGS 9Simulated
| $197 | $175 | 11.5% | 8.2% | 14 | 46 |
 ClefairyHeartGold SoulSilverPSA 9Simulated
| $118 | $98.04 | 16.8% | 1.4% | 23 | 52 |
 Farfetch'dHeartGold SoulSilverCGC 10Simulated
| $159 | $139 | 12.4% | 14.9% | 3 | 47 |