Pikachu ex (Special Illustration)
PSA 9.5SimulatedPikachu ex (Special Illustration) · Scarlet & Violet 151 · Special Illustration Rare · 120/207
Character: Pikachu
Price History
Opportunity Score
49- 17% below fair value+19 pts
- Sales accelerating+11 pts
- Reputable seller+6 pts
- High listing quality (graded)+6 pts
- High valuation confidence+5 pts
- Strong demand (4 sales/mo)+1 pts
Investment Thesis
bearish11Pikachu ex (Special Illustration) (PSA 9.5) is currently trading at a meaningful discount to fair value, with softening price momentum over the last 30 days (-19.4%). Estimated fair value is $694 against a lowest active listing of $578. Valuation confidence is high based on 11-plus recent comparable sales.
Bearish: softening prices (-19.4% over 30d) amid thin liquidity and rising graded population (6.6%/mo).
Risk Indicators
- Rising graded population may pressure prices
- Negative price momentum over the last 30 days
How Fair Value Is Built
A transparent, weighted blend of market signals — no black boxes.
| Signal | Detail | Reference | Weight |
|---|---|---|---|
| recent sales | Volume-weighted average of recent sold comps | 696.85 | 50% |
| listing inventory | Average of active listing asking prices | 697.85 | 25% |
| price trend | Recent historical price trend projection | 633.34 | 25% |
| population pressure | Adjustment for grading population growth (more supply lowers value) | -3.3 | 50% |
| demand momentum | Adjustment for sales velocity momentum (rising demand raises value) | 5.29 | 20% |
Active Listings
| Price | Marketplace | Condition | Seller | Listed | Ends | Link |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| $614 | Mercari | Graded | 81 | 13d ago | Jan 1 | View |
| $625 | PWCC | Graded | 98 | 12d ago | Jan 1 | View |
| $660 | Mercari | Graded | 72 | 4d ago | Jan 1 | View |
| $683 | Mercari | Graded | 81 | 4d ago | Jan 1 | View |
| $689 | eBay | Graded | 70 | 5d ago | Jan 1 | View |
| $718 | TCGPlayer | Graded | 95 | 6d ago | Jan 1 | View |
| $797 | Mercari | Graded | 72 | 5d ago | Jun 3 | View |
| $802 | TCGPlayer | Graded | 95 | 4d ago | Jan 1 | View |
Recent Sales
| Price | Marketplace | Condition | Sold |
|---|---|---|---|
| $699 | Facebook Marketplace | Graded | 6h ago |
| $748 | TCGPlayer | Graded | 19h ago |
| $624 | PWCC | Graded | 6d ago |
| $678 | eBay | Graded | 7d ago |
| $607 | TCGPlayer | Graded | 10d ago |
| $679 | Facebook Marketplace | Graded | 10d ago |
| $676 | Mercari | Graded | 15d ago |
| $728 | Mercari | Graded | 18d ago |
| $687 | Facebook Marketplace | Graded | 22d ago |
| $685 | Facebook Marketplace | Graded | 27d ago |
| $640 | Facebook Marketplace | Graded | 28d ago |
| $660 | eBay | Graded | 29d ago |
Signal Track Record
Did this asset's own Opportunity Scores precede outperformance? Each row is a past as-of date, scored point-in-time, with the realized benchmark-relative return that followed.
Data Provenance
Which signals on this page are real market data versus modeled by the deterministic engine. The terminal marks every source honestly.
- Reference price
- Simulated
- Card image
- Simulated
- Recent sales
- Simulated
- Population data
- Simulated
- Liquidity metrics
- Simulated
- Price history
- Simulated
Related Assets
Same character or set.
| Asset | Fair Value | Lowest | Discount | 30d | Avail | Score |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
Charizard Secret RareScarlet & Violet 151BGS 9.5Simulated
| $737 | $702 | 4.7% | 21.9% | 16 | 42 |
Umbreon PromoScarlet & Violet 151Simulated
| $315 | $282 | 10.7% | 10.6% | 22 | 44 |
Umbreon V (Full Art)Scarlet & Violet 151BGS 9.5Simulated
| $508 | $413 | 18.6% | 12.3% | 13 | 60 |
Umbreon ex (Illustration Rare)Scarlet & Violet 151Simulated
| $277 | $256 | 7.7% | 18.7% | 22 | 42 |
Pikachu V (Full Art)Hidden FatesSimulated
| $188 | $168 | 10.9% | 17.9% | 20 | 36 |
Pikachu ex (Illustration Rare)HeartGold SoulSilverSimulated
| $441 | $375 | 14.9% | 13.3% | 11 | 44 |