Typhlosion
SimulatedTyphlosion · Neo Genesis · Rare Holo · 18
Character: Typhlosion
Price History
Opportunity Score
40- 11% below fair value+13 pts
- Sales accelerating+9 pts
- High listing quality (near mint)+6 pts
- Reputable seller+6 pts
- High valuation confidence+5 pts
- Strong demand (4 sales/mo)+1 pts
Investment Thesis
bearish33Typhlosion is currently modestly undervalued, with softening price momentum over the last 30 days (-9.2%). Estimated fair value is $66 against a lowest active listing of $59. Valuation confidence is high based on 12-plus modeled comparable sales.
Bearish: softening prices (-9.2% over 30d) amid thin liquidity and stable graded supply.
Grading ROI & Population Trend
Is it worth paying to grade this card? A transparent profit model from the real ungraded cost and the audited graded value, plus a read on graded-supply momentum. The cost and odds levers are modeled assumptions you can adjust — not market-price pins.
No population data reported for this asset.
- Raw cost
- $58.60
- All-in cost
- $87.60+ $25.00 fee · $4.00 ship
- Graded value (per gem)
- $234
- Expected proceeds
- $61.1830% gem → $70.32 · less 13% fee
- Net profit / card
- -$26.42
- Breakeven graded value
- $336value needed to break even
Adjust modeled assumptions
These are modeled estimates, not market-price pins.
- Modeled gem-grade odds: 30% chance of PSA 10 (a modeled probability, not a market price). Non-gem outcomes are valued conservatively at $0.
- Modeled grading-service fee: $25.00 per card, plus $4.00 shipping/insurance (modeled service costs, not market prices).
- Modeled marketplace sell fee: 13.0% of graded proceeds (a modeled cost, not a market price).
- Raw cost and graded value trace to the existing audited references/pins — this panel authors no new market-price value.
Liquidity & Comp Explorer
How easily does this asset trade? Days-to-sell, sell-through rate, the spread between the lowest ask and the recent sold center, and inventory depth — all modeled over this asset's recorded sales and active listings. Explore the sale distribution with a date-range filter and an outlier-trim toggle.
Liquidity & Comp Explorer
- Days to sell
- 7.4dmodeled median sale gap
- Sell-through
- 23.0%over 90d window
- Bid-ask spread
- -9.3%lowest ask vs sold avg
- Inventory depth
- 10active listings
- Recent sold avg
- $170mean over 90d
- Lowest ask
- $154cheapest active listing
Comp Explorer
- Min
- $159
- Median
- $169
- Mean
- $166
- Max
- $171
Showing 5 of 6 sales · 1 outlier trimmed
These liquidity signals are modeled deterministically over this asset's existing recorded sales and active listings — they author no new market-price value. Days-to-sell, sell-through and the bid-ask spread are analytical reads over those comps, not a live order book.
How Fair Value Is Built
A transparent, weighted blend of market signals — no black boxes.
| Signal | Detail | Reference | Weight |
|---|---|---|---|
| recent sales | Volume-weighted average of recent sold comps | 66.49 | 50% |
| listing inventory | Average of active listing asking prices | 65.79 | 25% |
| price trend | Recent historical price trend projection | 52.82 | 25% |
| demand momentum | Adjustment for sales velocity momentum (rising demand raises value) | 4.51 | 20% |
Active Listings
| Price | Marketplace | Condition | Seller | Listed | Ends | Link |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| $154 | Facebook Marketplace | Near Mint | 95 | 75d ago | Jun 9 | View |
| $157 | TCGPlayer | Near Mint | 95 | 75d ago | Jan 1 | View |
| $158 | eBay | Near Mint | 90 | 71d ago | Jan 1 | View |
| $184 | Mercari | Near Mint | 62 | 57d ago | Jan 1 | View |
| $185 | eBay | Near Mint | 82 | 71d ago | Jan 1 | View |
| $188 | eBay | Near Mint | 70 | 65d ago | Jan 1 | View |
| $189 | PWCC | Near Mint | 68 | 64d ago | Jan 1 | View |
| $191 | Mercari | Near Mint | 79 | 56d ago | Jan 1 | View |
| $191 | TCGPlayer | Near Mint | 75 | 67d ago | Jun 9 | View |
| $193 | TCGPlayer | Near Mint | 63 | 69d ago | Jan 1 | View |
Recent Sales
| Price | Marketplace | Condition | Sold |
|---|---|---|---|
| $169 | PWCC | Near Mint | 72d ago |
| $170 | Facebook Marketplace | Near Mint | 81d ago |
| $171 | PWCC | Near Mint | 87d ago |
| $159 | eBay | Near Mint | 92d ago |
| $164 | Facebook Marketplace | Near Mint | 99d ago |
| $181 | PWCC | Near Mint | 101d ago |
Signal Track Record
Did this asset's own Opportunity Scores precede outperformance? Each row is a past as-of date, scored point-in-time, with the realized benchmark-relative return that followed.
Data Provenance
Which signals on this page are real market data versus modeled by the deterministic engine. The terminal marks every source honestly.
- Reference price
- Simulated
- Fair value basis
- Simulated
- Lowest ask (deal)
- Simulated
- Active listings
- Simulated
- Card image
- Live
- Recent sales
- Simulated
- Population data
- Simulated
- Liquidity metrics
- Simulated
- Liquidity analytics
- Simulated
- Price history
- Simulated
Related Assets
Same character or set.
| Asset | Fair Value | Lowest | Discount | 30d | Avail | Score |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
 Lugia (Neo Genesis)Neo GenesisPSA 9Live-anchoredReal askas of Jun 4 · 56d oldsold-comp center2nd source (tcgcsv): $511 · sales-derived, ungradedView $300 · TCGPlayer
| $1,640 | $1,056 | 35.6% | 5.6% | 1 | 75 |
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 QuilavaNeo GenesisPSA 9Simulated
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 HeracrossNeo GenesisBGS 9.5Simulated
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 SeadraNeo GenesisCGC 9Simulated
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 FlaaffyNeo GenesisSimulated
| $145 | $135 | 7.0% | 32.2% | 22 | 38 |