PokéAlpha
Back to dashboard

Lugia Secret Rare

Simulated

Lugia Secret Rare · Hidden Fates · Secret Rare · 30/163

Character: Lugia

medium confidenceneutral4430d 3.5%
Estimated Fair Value
$333
Lowest listing $26819.5% below
Bear Case
$289
Base Case
$333
Bull Case
$376

Price History

Dec 2Range $246 – $456May 30

Opportunity Score

48
  • 20% below fair value+23 pts
  • Sales accelerating+9 pts
  • Reputable seller+6 pts
  • High listing quality (near mint)+6 pts
  • High valuation confidence+4 pts

Investment Thesis

neutral44

Lugia Secret Rare is currently trading at a meaningful discount to fair value, with stable price momentum over the last 30 days (-3.5%). Estimated fair value is $333 against a lowest active listing of $268. Valuation confidence is medium based on 15-plus recent comparable sales.

Neutral: flat 30-day price action with thin liquidity and stable graded supply.

Active Listings
15
Sales / Month
3.0
Velocity Score
15/100
Illiquid
Sales Velocity 30d
+21.4%
Confidence
62/100

How Fair Value Is Built

A transparent, weighted blend of market signals — no black boxes.

SignalDetailReferenceWeight
recent salesVolume-weighted average of recent sold comps326.6350%
listing inventoryAverage of active listing asking prices313.8925%
price trendRecent historical price trend projection308.3725%
demand momentumAdjustment for sales velocity momentum (rising demand raises value)4.2820%

Active Listings

PriceMarketplaceConditionSellerListedEndsLink
$253eBayNear Mint8221d agoJan 1View
$259eBayNear Mint903d agoJan 1View
$259TCGPlayerNear Mint7015d agoJun 1View
$269eBayNear Mint914d agoJan 1View
$271Facebook MarketplaceNear Mint967d agoJan 1View
$271eBayNear Mint819d agoJan 1View
$276MercariNear Mint7418d agoJun 1View
$283eBayNear Mint871d agoJan 1View
$284MercariNear Mint6918d agoJan 1View
$286eBayNear Mint8820d agoJan 1View
$287MercariNear Mint6921d agoJan 1View
$287eBayNear Mint8612d agoJan 1View

Recent Sales

PriceMarketplaceConditionSold
$278TCGPlayerNear Mint11h ago
$280PWCCNear Mint3d ago
$292TCGPlayerNear Mint6d ago
$263MercariNear Mint6d ago
$264PWCCNear Mint8d ago
$248Facebook MarketplaceNear Mint8d ago
$250eBayNear Mint12d ago
$251PWCCNear Mint13d ago
$252Facebook MarketplaceNear Mint15d ago
$248Facebook MarketplaceNear Mint20d ago
$248MercariNear Mint22d ago
$265PWCCNear Mint23d ago

Signal Track Record

Did this asset's own Opportunity Scores precede outperformance? Each row is a past as-of date, scored point-in-time, with the realized benchmark-relative return that followed.

Data Provenance

Which signals on this page are real market data versus modeled by the deterministic engine. The terminal marks every source honestly.

Reference price
Simulated
Card image
Simulated
Recent sales
Simulated
Population data
Simulated
Liquidity metrics
Simulated
Price history
Simulated

Related Assets

Same character or set.

AssetFair ValueLowestDiscount30dAvailScore
Charizard GX (Shiny)Hidden FatesPSA 10Simulated
  • 13% below fair value+16 pts
  • High valuation confidence+7 pts
  • Reputable seller+7 pts
$836$72313.4%5.0%1744
Charizard Ultra RareHidden FatesSimulated
  • 19% below fair value+22 pts
  • Sales accelerating+10 pts
  • High valuation confidence+7 pts
$489$39718.7%10.5%1057
Pikachu V (Full Art)Hidden FatesSimulated
  • 12% below fair value+14 pts
  • Sales accelerating+8 pts
  • Reputable seller+7 pts
$199$17512.3%2.5%1939
Mewtwo Secret RareHidden FatesSimulated
  • High valuation confidence+6 pts
  • High listing quality (near mint)+6 pts
  • Reputable seller+5 pts
$435$465-6.9%9.7%530
Umbreon V (Full Art)Hidden FatesSimulated
  • 13% below fair value+15 pts
  • Sales accelerating+11 pts
  • Reputable seller+7 pts
$431$37413.2%0.6%1343
Lugia Secret RareCrown ZenithSimulated
  • 17% below fair value+20 pts
  • High valuation confidence+7 pts
  • High listing quality (near mint)+6 pts
$425$35217.0%4.3%1645