Vigoroth
PSA 9.5SimulatedVigoroth · EX Ruby & Sapphire · Uncommon · 47
Character: Vigoroth
Price History
Opportunity Score
57- 23% below fair value+27 pts
- Reputable seller+8 pts
- High valuation confidence+7 pts
- Population growth slowing+6 pts
- High listing quality (graded)+6 pts
- Strong demand (10 sales/mo)+3 pts
Investment Thesis
bearish21Vigoroth (PSA 9.5) is currently trading at a meaningful discount to fair value, with softening price momentum over the last 30 days (-18.6%). Estimated fair value is $106 against a lowest active listing of $81. Valuation confidence is high based on 23-plus modeled comparable sales.
Bearish: softening prices (-18.6% over 30d) amid healthy trading velocity and stable graded supply.
Risk Indicators
- Negative price momentum over the last 30 days
Grading ROI & Population Trend
Is it worth paying to grade this card? A transparent profit model from the real ungraded cost and the audited graded value, plus a read on graded-supply momentum. The cost and odds levers are modeled assumptions you can adjust — not market-price pins.
Population growth slowing to -0.8%/mo — supply tightening across 6988 graded.
6,988 graded · 46% gem · -0.8%/mo
- Raw cost
- $81.42
- All-in cost
- $110+ $25.00 fee · $4.00 ship
- Graded value (per gem)
- $106
- Expected proceeds
- $27.5930% gem → $31.71 · less 13% fee
- Net profit / card
- -$82.83
- Breakeven graded value
- $423value needed to break even
Adjust modeled assumptions
These are modeled estimates, not market-price pins.
- Modeled gem-grade odds: 30% chance of PSA 9.5 (a modeled probability, not a market price). Non-gem outcomes are valued conservatively at $0.
- Modeled grading-service fee: $25.00 per card, plus $4.00 shipping/insurance (modeled service costs, not market prices).
- Modeled marketplace sell fee: 13.0% of graded proceeds (a modeled cost, not a market price).
- Raw cost and graded value trace to the existing audited references/pins — this panel authors no new market-price value.
Liquidity & Comp Explorer
How easily does this asset trade? Days-to-sell, sell-through rate, the spread between the lowest ask and the recent sold center, and inventory depth — all modeled over this asset's recorded sales and active listings. Explore the sale distribution with a date-range filter and an outlier-trim toggle.
Liquidity & Comp Explorer
- Days to sell
- 1.7dmodeled median sale gap
- Sell-through
- 31.0%over 90d window
- Bid-ask spread
- -2.6%lowest ask vs sold avg
- Inventory depth
- 22active listings
- Recent sold avg
- $114mean over 90d
- Lowest ask
- $111cheapest active listing
Comp Explorer
- Min
- $102
- Median
- $125
- Mean
- $126
- Max
- $163
Showing 19 of 19 sales
These liquidity signals are modeled deterministically over this asset's existing recorded sales and active listings — they author no new market-price value. Days-to-sell, sell-through and the bid-ask spread are analytical reads over those comps, not a live order book.
How Fair Value Is Built
A transparent, weighted blend of market signals — no black boxes.
| Signal | Detail | Reference | Weight |
|---|---|---|---|
| recent sales | Volume-weighted average of recent sold comps | 112.48 | 50% |
| listing inventory | Average of active listing asking prices | 95.79 | 25% |
| price trend | Recent historical price trend projection | 106.8 | 25% |
| population pressure | Adjustment for grading population growth (more supply lowers value) | -0.59 | 50% |
| demand momentum | Adjustment for sales velocity momentum (rising demand raises value) | -0.51 | 20% |
Active Listings
| Price | Marketplace | Condition | Seller | Listed | Ends | Link |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| $111 | PWCC | Graded | 81 | 56d ago | Jan 1 | View |
| $113 | Facebook Marketplace | Graded | 66 | 74d ago | Jan 1 | View |
| $113 | PWCC | Graded | 85 | 55d ago | Jun 10 | View |
| $114 | Facebook Marketplace | Graded | 100 | 63d ago | Jan 1 | View |
| $115 | PWCC | Graded | 67 | 73d ago | Jan 1 | View |
| $117 | eBay | Graded | 75 | 62d ago | Jan 1 | View |
| $121 | eBay | Graded | 87 | 70d ago | Jan 1 | View |
| $125 | Mercari | Graded | 75 | 72d ago | Jan 1 | View |
| $126 | PWCC | Graded | 66 | 62d ago | Jan 1 | View |
| $127 | Facebook Marketplace | Graded | 80 | 73d ago | Jan 1 | View |
| $127 | TCGPlayer | Graded | 85 | 60d ago | Jan 1 | View |
| $132 | Mercari | Graded | 70 | 72d ago | Jan 1 | View |
Recent Sales
| Price | Marketplace | Condition | Sold |
|---|---|---|---|
| $127 | Mercari | Graded | 56d ago |
| $118 | eBay | Graded | 58d ago |
| $114 | TCGPlayer | Graded | 58d ago |
| $127 | PWCC | Graded | 64d ago |
| $121 | Facebook Marketplace | Graded | 65d ago |
| $113 | TCGPlayer | Graded | 67d ago |
| $102 | TCGPlayer | Graded | 71d ago |
| $104 | TCGPlayer | Graded | 77d ago |
| $106 | PWCC | Graded | 85d ago |
| $112 | Facebook Marketplace | Graded | 86d ago |
| $111 | Facebook Marketplace | Graded | 93d ago |
| $125 | Facebook Marketplace | Graded | 95d ago |
Signal Track Record
Did this asset's own Opportunity Scores precede outperformance? Each row is a past as-of date, scored point-in-time, with the realized benchmark-relative return that followed.
Data Provenance
Which signals on this page are real market data versus modeled by the deterministic engine. The terminal marks every source honestly.
- Reference price
- Simulated
- Fair value basis
- Simulated
- Lowest ask (deal)
- Simulated
- Active listings
- Simulated
- Card image
- Live
- Recent sales
- Simulated
- Population data
- Simulated
- Liquidity metrics
- Simulated
- Liquidity analytics
- Simulated
- Price history
- Simulated
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