Lucario Ultra Rare
PSA 9.5SimulatedLucario Ultra Rare · Scarlet & Violet 151 · Ultra Rare · 91/207
Character: Lucario
Price History
Opportunity Score
58- 12% below fair value+14 pts
- Reputable seller+7 pts
- Sales accelerating+7 pts
- High valuation confidence+6 pts
- High listing quality (graded)+6 pts
- Population growth slowing+6 pts
- Strong demand (18 sales/mo)+6 pts
- Price up 14% over 30 days+5 pts
- Low active inventory+2 pts
Investment Thesis
bullish92Lucario Ultra Rare (PSA 9.5) is currently modestly undervalued, with rising price momentum over the last 30 days (+13.6%). Estimated fair value is $454 against a lowest active listing of $401. Valuation confidence is high based on 8-plus recent comparable sales.
Bullish: rising prices (+13.6% over 30d) with healthy trading velocity and stable graded supply.
How Fair Value Is Built
A transparent, weighted blend of market signals — no black boxes.
| Signal | Detail | Reference | Weight |
|---|---|---|---|
| recent sales | Volume-weighted average of recent sold comps | 425.05 | 50% |
| listing inventory | Average of active listing asking prices | 450.11 | 25% |
| price trend | Recent historical price trend projection | 470.87 | 25% |
| population pressure | Adjustment for grading population growth (more supply lowers value) | -0.67 | 50% |
| demand momentum | Adjustment for sales velocity momentum (rising demand raises value) | 3.27 | 20% |
Active Listings
| Price | Marketplace | Condition | Seller | Listed | Ends | Link |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| $279 | eBay | Graded | 84 | 13d ago | Jun 2 | View |
| $280 | Mercari | Graded | 82 | 18d ago | Jun 4 | View |
| $285 | eBay | Graded | 86 | 20d ago | Jun 2 | View |
| $288 | Facebook Marketplace | Graded | 77 | 10d ago | Jun 4 | View |
| $306 | TCGPlayer | Graded | 70 | 2d ago | Jan 1 | View |
| $306 | TCGPlayer | Graded | 78 | 13d ago | Jan 1 | View |
| $308 | Mercari | Graded | 80 | 7d ago | Jan 1 | View |
| $310 | Mercari | Graded | 90 | 15d ago | Jan 1 | View |
| $310 | Facebook Marketplace | Graded | 90 | 20d ago | Jun 4 | View |
| $325 | eBay | Graded | 73 | 13d ago | Jun 1 | View |
| $329 | eBay | Graded | 78 | 19d ago | May 31 | View |
| $331 | PWCC | Graded | 72 | 18d ago | Jan 1 | View |
Recent Sales
| Price | Marketplace | Condition | Sold |
|---|---|---|---|
| $313 | PWCC | Graded | 2d ago |
| $292 | eBay | Graded | 4d ago |
| $320 | PWCC | Graded | 6d ago |
| $301 | Facebook Marketplace | Graded | 6d ago |
| $287 | eBay | Graded | 8d ago |
| $297 | Mercari | Graded | 8d ago |
| $315 | PWCC | Graded | 9d ago |
| $298 | TCGPlayer | Graded | 10d ago |
| $310 | Mercari | Graded | 14d ago |
| $269 | PWCC | Graded | 16d ago |
| $290 | TCGPlayer | Graded | 16d ago |
| $279 | PWCC | Graded | 16d ago |
Signal Track Record
Did this asset's own Opportunity Scores precede outperformance? Each row is a past as-of date, scored point-in-time, with the realized benchmark-relative return that followed.
Data Provenance
Which signals on this page are real market data versus modeled by the deterministic engine. The terminal marks every source honestly.
- Reference price
- Simulated
- Card image
- Simulated
- Recent sales
- Simulated
- Population data
- Simulated
- Liquidity metrics
- Simulated
- Price history
- Simulated
Related Assets
Same character or set.
| Asset | Fair Value | Lowest | Discount | 30d | Avail | Score |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
Charizard Secret RareScarlet & Violet 151BGS 9.5Simulated
| $759 | $723 | 4.7% | 30.6% | 14 | 47 |
Umbreon PromoScarlet & Violet 151Simulated
| $315 | $290 | 7.8% | 13.9% | 15 | 39 |
Umbreon V (Full Art)Scarlet & Violet 151BGS 9.5Simulated
| $503 | $417 | 16.9% | 14.5% | 14 | 51 |
Umbreon ex (Illustration Rare)Scarlet & Violet 151Simulated
| $289 | $260 | 10.1% | 14.3% | 14 | 49 |
Pikachu (Illustrator-style)Scarlet & Violet 151PSA 10Simulated
| $599 | $520 | 13.3% | 5.2% | 16 | 43 |
Umbreon PromoScarlet & Violet 151Simulated
| $302 | $253 | 16.0% | 8.4% | 17 | 51 |