Wailord
CGC 10SimulatedWailord · EX Ruby & Sapphire · Rare Holo · 14
Character: Wailord
Price History
Opportunity Score
43- 11% below fair value+13 pts
- Sales accelerating+7 pts
- High listing quality (graded)+6 pts
- High valuation confidence+6 pts
- Reputable seller+5 pts
- Price up 11% over 30 days+4 pts
- Strong demand (6 sales/mo)+2 pts
Investment Thesis
bullish72Wailord (CGC 10) is currently modestly undervalued, with rising price momentum over the last 30 days (+10.9%). Estimated fair value is $246 against a lowest active listing of $218. Valuation confidence is high based on 16-plus modeled comparable sales.
Bullish: rising prices (+10.9% over 30d) with thin liquidity and rising graded population (5.4%/mo).
Risk Indicators
- Rising graded population may pressure prices
Grading ROI & Population Trend
Is it worth paying to grade this card? A transparent profit model from the real ungraded cost and the audited graded value, plus a read on graded-supply momentum. The cost and odds levers are modeled assumptions you can adjust — not market-price pins.
Population growing 2.6%/mo — steady supply across 4882 graded.
4,882 graded · 27% gem · +2.6%/mo
- Raw cost
- $218
- All-in cost
- $247+ $25.00 fee · $4.00 ship
- Graded value (per gem)
- $246
- Expected proceeds
- $64.1230% gem → $73.70 · less 13% fee
- Net profit / card
- -$182.63
- Breakeven graded value
- $945value needed to break even
Adjust modeled assumptions
These are modeled estimates, not market-price pins.
- Modeled gem-grade odds: 30% chance of CGC 10 (a modeled probability, not a market price). Non-gem outcomes are valued conservatively at $0.
- Modeled grading-service fee: $25.00 per card, plus $4.00 shipping/insurance (modeled service costs, not market prices).
- Modeled marketplace sell fee: 13.0% of graded proceeds (a modeled cost, not a market price).
- Raw cost and graded value trace to the existing audited references/pins — this panel authors no new market-price value.
Liquidity & Comp Explorer
How easily does this asset trade? Days-to-sell, sell-through rate, the spread between the lowest ask and the recent sold center, and inventory depth — all modeled over this asset's recorded sales and active listings. Explore the sale distribution with a date-range filter and an outlier-trim toggle.
Liquidity & Comp Explorer
- Days to sell
- 1.5dmodeled median sale gap
- Sell-through
- 60.0%over 90d window
- Bid-ask spread
- -3.9%lowest ask vs sold avg
- Inventory depth
- 12active listings
- Recent sold avg
- $203mean over 90d
- Lowest ask
- $195cheapest active listing
Comp Explorer
- Min
- $180
- Median
- $209
- Mean
- $207
- Max
- $241
Showing 27 of 27 sales
These liquidity signals are modeled deterministically over this asset's existing recorded sales and active listings — they author no new market-price value. Days-to-sell, sell-through and the bid-ask spread are analytical reads over those comps, not a live order book.
How Fair Value Is Built
A transparent, weighted blend of market signals — no black boxes.
| Signal | Detail | Reference | Weight |
|---|---|---|---|
| recent sales | Volume-weighted average of recent sold comps | 231 | 50% |
| listing inventory | Average of active listing asking prices | 247.19 | 25% |
| price trend | Recent historical price trend projection | 265.78 | 25% |
| population pressure | Adjustment for grading population growth (more supply lowers value) | -2.69 | 50% |
| demand momentum | Adjustment for sales velocity momentum (rising demand raises value) | 3.57 | 20% |
Active Listings
| Price | Marketplace | Condition | Seller | Listed | Ends | Link |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| $195 | Mercari | Graded | 76 | 59d ago | Jan 1 | View |
| $202 | PWCC | Graded | 73 | 56d ago | Jan 1 | View |
| $203 | Facebook Marketplace | Graded | 76 | 62d ago | Jan 1 | View |
| $222 | PWCC | Graded | 91 | 64d ago | Jan 1 | View |
| $223 | Facebook Marketplace | Graded | 71 | 60d ago | Jan 1 | View |
| $224 | Facebook Marketplace | Graded | 86 | 73d ago | Jun 7 | View |
| $226 | Mercari | Graded | 95 | 63d ago | Jan 1 | View |
| $238 | eBay | Graded | 70 | 66d ago | Jan 1 | View |
| $244 | PWCC | Graded | 91 | 73d ago | Jan 1 | View |
| $248 | eBay | Graded | 77 | 55d ago | Jan 1 | View |
| $250 | PWCC | Graded | 80 | 55d ago | Jun 8 | View |
| $255 | PWCC | Graded | 88 | 65d ago | Jan 1 | View |
Recent Sales
| Price | Marketplace | Condition | Sold |
|---|---|---|---|
| $196 | PWCC | Graded | 58d ago |
| $209 | Mercari | Graded | 59d ago |
| $187 | Facebook Marketplace | Graded | 62d ago |
| $194 | Facebook Marketplace | Graded | 63d ago |
| $190 | eBay | Graded | 63d ago |
| $180 | TCGPlayer | Graded | 63d ago |
| $180 | eBay | Graded | 64d ago |
| $204 | eBay | Graded | 67d ago |
| $211 | TCGPlayer | Graded | 69d ago |
| $212 | Facebook Marketplace | Graded | 72d ago |
| $211 | eBay | Graded | 77d ago |
| $223 | Facebook Marketplace | Graded | 79d ago |
Signal Track Record
Did this asset's own Opportunity Scores precede outperformance? Each row is a past as-of date, scored point-in-time, with the realized benchmark-relative return that followed.
Data Provenance
Which signals on this page are real market data versus modeled by the deterministic engine. The terminal marks every source honestly.
- Reference price
- Simulated
- Fair value basis
- Simulated
- Lowest ask (deal)
- Simulated
- Active listings
- Simulated
- Card image
- Live
- Recent sales
- Simulated
- Population data
- Simulated
- Liquidity metrics
- Simulated
- Liquidity analytics
- Simulated
- Price history
- Simulated
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