Goldeen
CGC 10SimulatedGoldeen · EX Ruby & Sapphire · Common · 55
Character: Goldeen
Price History
Opportunity Score
54- 16% below fair value+19 pts
- Population growth slowing+8 pts
- Reputable seller+8 pts
- High valuation confidence+7 pts
- High listing quality (graded)+6 pts
- Sales accelerating+5 pts
- Strong demand (10 sales/mo)+3 pts
Investment Thesis
neutral42Goldeen (CGC 10) is currently trading at a meaningful discount to fair value, with softening price momentum over the last 30 days (-7.0%). Estimated fair value is $326 against a lowest active listing of $274. Valuation confidence is high based on 21-plus modeled comparable sales.
Neutral: softening prices (-7.0% over 30d) with thin liquidity and stable graded supply.
Grading ROI & Population Trend
Is it worth paying to grade this card? A transparent profit model from the real ungraded cost and the audited graded value, plus a read on graded-supply momentum. The cost and odds levers are modeled assumptions you can adjust — not market-price pins.
Population growth slowing to 0.6%/mo — supply tightening across 7381 graded.
7,381 graded · 58% gem · +0.6%/mo
- Raw cost
- $274
- All-in cost
- $303+ $25.00 fee · $4.00 ship
- Graded value (per gem)
- $326
- Expected proceeds
- $84.9730% gem → $97.67 · less 13% fee
- Net profit / card
- -$218.03
- Breakeven graded value
- $1,161value needed to break even
Adjust modeled assumptions
These are modeled estimates, not market-price pins.
- Modeled gem-grade odds: 30% chance of CGC 10 (a modeled probability, not a market price). Non-gem outcomes are valued conservatively at $0.
- Modeled grading-service fee: $25.00 per card, plus $4.00 shipping/insurance (modeled service costs, not market prices).
- Modeled marketplace sell fee: 13.0% of graded proceeds (a modeled cost, not a market price).
- Raw cost and graded value trace to the existing audited references/pins — this panel authors no new market-price value.
Liquidity & Comp Explorer
How easily does this asset trade? Days-to-sell, sell-through rate, the spread between the lowest ask and the recent sold center, and inventory depth — all modeled over this asset's recorded sales and active listings. Explore the sale distribution with a date-range filter and an outlier-trim toggle.
Liquidity & Comp Explorer
- Days to sell
- 3.0dmodeled median sale gap
- Sell-through
- 35.0%over 90d window
- Bid-ask spread
- +3.0%lowest ask vs sold avg
- Inventory depth
- 20active listings
- Recent sold avg
- $224mean over 90d
- Lowest ask
- $231cheapest active listing
Comp Explorer
- Min
- $190
- Median
- $205
- Mean
- $210
- Max
- $245
Showing 19 of 21 sales · 2 outliers trimmed
These liquidity signals are modeled deterministically over this asset's existing recorded sales and active listings — they author no new market-price value. Days-to-sell, sell-through and the bid-ask spread are analytical reads over those comps, not a live order book.
How Fair Value Is Built
A transparent, weighted blend of market signals — no black boxes.
| Signal | Detail | Reference | Weight |
|---|---|---|---|
| recent sales | Volume-weighted average of recent sold comps | 323.71 | 50% |
| listing inventory | Average of active listing asking prices | 320.01 | 25% |
| price trend | Recent historical price trend projection | 305.67 | 25% |
| population pressure | Adjustment for grading population growth (more supply lowers value) | -0.05 | 50% |
| demand momentum | Adjustment for sales velocity momentum (rising demand raises value) | 2.34 | 20% |
Active Listings
| Price | Marketplace | Condition | Seller | Listed | Ends | Link |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| $231 | PWCC | Graded | 67 | 63d ago | Jan 1 | View |
| $231 | PWCC | Graded | 91 | 60d ago | Jan 1 | View |
| $232 | TCGPlayer | Graded | 92 | 57d ago | Jan 1 | View |
| $232 | eBay | Graded | 71 | 68d ago | Jun 9 | View |
| $233 | Facebook Marketplace | Graded | 86 | 73d ago | Jan 1 | View |
| $234 | Facebook Marketplace | Graded | 99 | 67d ago | Jan 1 | View |
| $238 | eBay | Graded | 85 | 71d ago | Jan 1 | View |
| $239 | Facebook Marketplace | Graded | 91 | 73d ago | Jan 1 | View |
| $244 | Mercari | Graded | 95 | 64d ago | Jan 1 | View |
| $255 | Facebook Marketplace | Graded | 71 | 64d ago | Jan 1 | View |
| $269 | eBay | Graded | 92 | 71d ago | Jan 1 | View |
| $271 | Facebook Marketplace | Graded | 83 | 70d ago | Jan 1 | View |
Recent Sales
| Price | Marketplace | Condition | Sold |
|---|---|---|---|
| $240 | Mercari | Graded | 55d ago |
| $269 | Facebook Marketplace | Graded | 58d ago |
| $245 | PWCC | Graded | 62d ago |
| $217 | Mercari | Graded | 63d ago |
| $208 | Mercari | Graded | 67d ago |
| $201 | PWCC | Graded | 70d ago |
| $198 | eBay | Graded | 72d ago |
| $203 | PWCC | Graded | 72d ago |
| $216 | eBay | Graded | 73d ago |
| $215 | PWCC | Graded | 80d ago |
| $256 | PWCC | Graded | 85d ago |
| $202 | Facebook Marketplace | Graded | 92d ago |
Signal Track Record
Did this asset's own Opportunity Scores precede outperformance? Each row is a past as-of date, scored point-in-time, with the realized benchmark-relative return that followed.
Data Provenance
Which signals on this page are real market data versus modeled by the deterministic engine. The terminal marks every source honestly.
- Reference price
- Simulated
- Fair value basis
- Simulated
- Lowest ask (deal)
- Simulated
- Active listings
- Simulated
- Card image
- Live
- Recent sales
- Simulated
- Population data
- Simulated
- Liquidity metrics
- Simulated
- Liquidity analytics
- Simulated
- Price history
- Simulated
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